Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others’ research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition.     

Learning and Bayesian updating in long cycle made-to-order (MTO) production

We model production planning for made-to-order (MTO) manufacturing by choosing production rate to minimize expected discounted cost incurred up to a promised delivery date. Products that are MTO are often unique and customized. The associated learning curve slope and other production parameters cannot be precisely estimated before production starts. In this paper, a dynamic and adaptive approach to estimate the effects of learning and to optimize next period production is developed. This approach offers a closed-loop solution through stochastic dynamic programming. Monthly production data are used to update the joint probability distributions of production parameters via Bayesian methods. Our approach is illustrated using historical earned-value data from the Black Hawk Helicopter Program. Managerial insights are obtained and discussed.     

时滞系统PID控制器参数稳定域的实现

基于广义Hermite-Biehler定理,运用时滞对象的逆Nyquist曲线,可确定PID控制器比例增益的稳定范围。在积分和微分增益平面上,针对多条边界直线,提出一种逆时针规律的判断方法,可快速确定该二维平面上参数的稳定区域,从而给出了一种确定时滞系统PID控制器参数稳定域的新算法。该算法适合软件实现,仿真实例验证了该算法的有效性。     

中部崛起战略中的安徽发展:机遇、挑战与对策

“中部崛起”的政策内涵和战略意义不仅仅强调板块发展的整体性，更注重区域内部及外部各因素的优势发展和协调发展。中部崛起带来的机遇和挑战表明，加快安徽发展对于中部崛起具有重要意义。在统筹区域发展的思路下，依据本省实际，安徽应在中部崛起的战略机遇中，乘势而上，实现自身较快发展。     

中国银行核心系统项目群管理执行力的研究

核心银行系统,是商业银行最重要的软件系统。核心银行系统的构建,是通过一系列互相关联的软件开发项目群来实现的。如何对项目群进行有效管理是金融软件项目管理的热点问题。通过建立项目矩阵,从而引入项目集群分析方法,是一个可推广的办法。本文进一步通过因子分析法从执行力角度对核心银行系统的软件项目集群进行了综合评价,并给出相关管理建议,从而建立了项目集群分析的一套方法。     

Monetary Discounting of Delayed Consequences Predict Employment Nudity: Exotic Dancers Versus Waitresses

The present study examined temporal monetary discounting rates among exotic dancers, waitresses who are required to wear revealing uniforms, and waitresses at a local restaurant where revealing clothes are not part of work attire. Current findings indicate that exotic dancers and waitresses who are required to wear revealing clothing discounted significantly more than waitresses at restaurants where provocative dress is not required. These results suggest that the type of job held may predict impulsivity, with nude or risqué occupations indicating steeper patterns of overall discounting.     

项目教学法在加拿大英语教学中的运用

近年来,项目教学法在国内的外语教学界受到普遍关注,苏州大学还开展了“多媒体项目教学”改革实践以探索项目教学法的理论与实践。为了让中国的外语教师对此有直观的认识,本文着重分析加拿大项目教学课堂的片段观察,反映项目教学法如何推动学生语言发展和促进学生自主学习能力的发展。     

Cognitive Limitations and Investment “Myopia”*

Optimization of investment decisions in an uncertain and dynamically evolving environment is difficult due to the limitations of the decision-maker's cognitive capacity. Thus, actual investment decisions may deviate from the dynamically optimal decision rule. This paper investigates how a potential investment rule bias affects the expected payoff from a project that has an uncertain development time and an uncertain completion cost. The result shows that the presence of a potential bias in the adopted decision rule dissipates project value and that the dissipating effect is greater for a longer term project if the completion cost is an increasing function of the time to completion.     

三峡库区文物保护及其开发

长江三峡工程库区文物保护工作特色鲜明,成交显著。三峡库区文物保护工作的主要做法和经验,即政府重视,前期的科学规划,依法管理、解放思想、不断创新,宣传引导、全民参与,落实文物保护政策、加强科技含量。为搞好三峡库区文物保护后续工作,应把文物保护和开发利用紧密结合起来,充分发挥文物的文化保存、考古、教育、旅游、发展地方经济等综合效益,实现文物保护和地方经验可持续发展。     

公路汽车客运合同纠纷的分析与解决

通过把合同法有关运输合同的规定与公路客运实践相结合的办法 ,论述公路汽车客运承运人的合同义务和相应法律责任 ,对公路承运人与旅客之间的几种重要纠纷进行法理分析 ,为公路承运人预防和应对此类纠纷提供对策。