二阶非线性时滞微分方程的振动性

本文讨论了一类二阶非线性泛函微分方程的振动性,给出方程振动的若干充分条件．     

发展干预项目的有效性评估：功能定位与操作难题

发展干预项目的评估是确定发展目标、发展效率、干预影响以及可持续性同项目实施之间的相关性的过程。它至少包含两方面的现实功能,学术层面上,是回应当前知识界对于发展项目是否真正有效的学术争论的最直接手段;实践层面上,能够对特定发展项目的持续或中止进行合法化描述。发展干预是由多元因素长期共同作用下产生的改变,要展示其项目多大程度上推动了发展变迁,是一件十分困难的事情,其操作性难题主要包括：复杂社会系统中干预效果的归因偏差议题;阶段性影响与最终效果的关系平衡议题;普遍性与情景化的评估方法的采用偏向议题;项目评估的时间节点的动态选择议题。操作性难题归结成最重要的一点,其实就在于如何判断发展干预行动是否真正推动了减贫发展与社会变迁。     

Fostering Risk Taking in Research and Development: The Importance of a Project's Terminal Value

Large firms face a conflict in managing a portfolio of high-risk projects. When an ongoing project is thought to have a low likelihood of success, project team members take risks to improve its chances of success. However, upper-level managers who allocate resources tend to withhold resources from a project with a low likelihood of success in favor of others in the portfolio that look more promising. Because this paucity of resources influences project team members to avoid risk, the total effect of success likelihood on risk taking is conflicted. The influence on risk taking of a project's terminal value—defined as the value that remains in the firm in the event of project failure—is unequivocally positive, because both senior management resource allocation and project team risk-taking propensity are encouraged by terminal value. Thus, firms can override the ambivalent effect of likelihood of success on project decision making by focusing attention on a project's terminal value.     

Bargaining and Reputation

The paper develops a reputation based theory of bargaining. The idea is to investigate and highlight the influence of bargaining ‘postures’ on bargaining outcomes. A complete information bargaining model a la Rubinstein is amended to accommodate ‘irrational types’ who are obstinate, and indeed for tractability assumed to be completely inflexible in their offers and demands. A strong ‘independence of procedures’ result is derived: after initial postures have been adopted, the bargaining outcome is independent of the fine details of the bargaining protocol so long as both players have the opportunity to make offers frequently. The latter analysis yields a unique continuous‐time limit with a war of attrition structure. In the continuous‐time game, equilibrium is unique, and entails delay, consequently inefficiency. The equilibrium outcome reflects the combined influence of the rates of time preference of the players and the ex ante probabilities of different irrational types. As the probability of irrationality goes to zero, delay and inefficiency disappear; furthermore, if there is a rich set of types for both agents, the limit equilibrium payoffs are inversely proportional to their rates of time preference.     

Publication Delay in Iranian Scholarly Journals

Scholarly periodicals in Iran are considered main information resources in the development of knowledge in scholarly areas. About 566 periodicals have publication licenses from the Commission of Scholarly Periodicals Evaluation of Ministry of Science, Research & Technology (MSRT), with sixty-eight published in English. This paper studies the publication delay of twenty-six Iranian scholarly periodicals which are published in Persian in Iran, not those Iranian journals which are published in English in Iran or out of the country. The peer review and scholarly publication processes in Iranian journals are quite lengthy and need improvement. There was no significant relationship between publication delay in Persian scholarly periodicals and their impact factor as presented by the Islamic World Science Citation Center (titled ISC). Finally, the authors offer some solutions for improving the publication system of Iranian scholarly journals and decreasing the publication interval of these journals.     

对外承包工程国际收支统计存在问题与改进建议

 对外承包工程是一项重要的国际经济合作方式之一,与其相关的多项交易均需纳入国际收支统计范围。本文分析了《国际收支和国际投资头寸手册（第六版）》（Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (Sixth Edition)）中有关对外承包工程国际收支统计的基本原则,并指出以间接申报为主要数据源的统计模式的弊端,建议从规范间接申报入手改进现有统计制度,最后提出了开展专项统计采集对外承包工程国际收支数据的远期规划。     

Organizational Silence and Whistle‐Blowing on IT Projects: An Integrated Model*

An individual's reluctance to report bad news about a troubled information technology (IT) project has been suggested as an important contributor to project failure and has been linked to IT project escalation as well. To date, information systems researchers have drawn from the mum effect and whistle‐blowing literature to gain a better understanding of the factors that influence bad news reporting. More recent theoretical work in the area of organizational silence offers a promising new conceptual lens, but remains empirically untested. In this research note, we integrate key elements of Morrison and Milliken's (2000) model of organizational silence, which has never been empirically tested, with the basic whistle‐blowing model adapted from Dozier and Miceli (1985) . Using a role‐playing experiment, we investigate how organizational structures/policies, managerial practices, and degree of demographic dissimilarity between employees and top managers create a climate of silence and how this climate, in turn, affects an individual's willingness to report. Our results show that all three types of factors contribute to a climate of silence, exerting both direct and indirect influence on willingness to report, as hypothesized. The implications of these findings and directions for future research are discussed.     

Real‐Time Delay Estimation Based on Delay History in Many‐Server Service Systems with Time‐Varying Arrivals

Motivated by interest in making delay announcements in service systems, we study real‐time delay estimators in many‐server service systems, both with and without customer abandonment. Our main contribution here is to consider the realistic feature of time‐varying arrival rates. We focus especially on delay estimators exploiting recent customer delay history. We show that time‐varying arrival rates can introduce significant estimation bias in delay‐history‐based delay estimators when the system experiences alternating periods of overload and underload. We then introduce refined delay‐history estimators that effectively cope with time‐varying arrival rates together with non‐exponential service‐time and abandonment‐time distributions, which are often observed in practice. We use computer simulation to verify that our proposed estimators outperform several natural alternatives.     

校会合作:推进本土非公募基金会项目管理和人才培养的专业化

随着后"条例"时代的来临,我国非公募基金会的数量逐年增多,但大多数非公募基金会在项目管理的专业化方面,尚存在严重的滞后现象。非公募基金会应正视目前所处的困境,并积极寻求突破,可尝试从校会合作的角度,通过积极推进与科研院校、科研机构的交流合作,探索一条优化项目管理、培养专业人才的路径,以推进本土非公募基金会项目管理的专业化。     

利用时延特性的模糊TCP拥塞控制算法

提出了一种基于时延的模糊控制TCP拥塞控制算法(DFCC),采用当前RTT变化和历史变化相结合的方法,通过一个模糊控制器调节CWND,从而对网络拥塞情况有了更好的估计和反应,有效解决了突发拥塞降低吞吐量的问题。仿真试验表明,改进的算法更加准确地监测到网络拥塞,提高了网络的吞吐量。