Testing psychological forward induction and the updating of beliefs in the lost wallet game

This paper studies psychological forward induction and the updating of beliefs in the lost wallet game (Dufwenberg & Gneezy, 2000), which is required to derive a prediction for guilt averse agents. Our experiment tests whether the second movers psychologically induct forward and update their beliefs after observing their paired first mover's decision by eliciting beliefs with different second mover knowledge of first mover decision, depending on treatment. We find that second movers do update their beliefs conditional on receiving information on the first mover’s action, supporting psychological forward induction.     

先进制造模式扩散外部影响的建模与分析

针对先进制造模式应用实施过程中的外部影响,从控制模型的视角研究了先进制造模式扩散中外部影响的建模与分析.首先,分析了先进制造模式扩散的外部影响因素,结合先进制造模式扩散的动力学模型,建立了扩散的控制模型;其次,对扩散控制模型的稳定性、能控性及能观性进行分析,给出定性分析的结果;再次,利用极点配置设计了反馈控制器;最后,针对具体的先进制造模式扩散过程,采用Matlab 7.1对控制模型进行了仿真,仿真结果与定性分析结果相一致,验证了模型的正确性.     

《社会契约论》中卢梭的"人民"教诲——《社会契约论》卷一、卷二的解读

从physis和nomos以及theoria和praxis关系出发审视,可以看出,卢梭《社会契约论》卷一和卷二中关于人民的概念是既有联系也有实质性差别的。卷一的人民是普遍的,它是任何政治体都具有的形式一致性。而卷二的人民是未缔结社会契约前的人民——民族,是不同政治体相互划分敌友的依据,是一个共同体区别于另一个共同体的关键。     

Behavioral dynamics of tax evasion – A survey

Since the 1950s (Schmölders, 1959) it is well known that behavioral aspects have an influence on tax evasion or tax compliance. In particular, interactions among the various entities involved in the taxation process (e.g. taxpayers, law makers, tax practitioners, tax authorities, etc.), and the dynamics that these interactions may generate, seem to play an important role for the actual level of tax compliance. However, the mainstream neoclassical approach to tax evasion (Allingham & Sandmo, 1972) cannot account for such interactions and dynamics. Therefore, during the last two decades new approaches (e.g. lab experiments, agent-based modeling, etc.) have been developed with a view to model how behavioral dynamics may foster or prevent tax evasion. In addition, empirical evidence has been generated that supports a role for such interaction dynamics. In this contribution we survey the main developments in this research area and provide some suggestions for further research.     

Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach

This paper estimates the determinants of Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) using time series methods. We find there exists a long-run relationship between CCI and its determinants when an important political event ‘operation clean hands’, captured by a dummy, is considered. Using the asymmetric error correction model (Enders & Siklos, 2001), we find that consumers respond asymmetrically to different types of disequilibrium error under threshold autoregressive (TAR) adjustment specification. These findings are consistent with the psychological bias approach (Bovi, 2009).     

流浪儿童心理救助服务模式初探

流浪儿童问题是当今世界各国普遍关注的全球性社会问题。但是，与物质方面的救助相比，流浪儿童心理救助比较缺失。通过对未成年人救助保护中心流浪儿童的调查发现，流浪儿童在进站、住站、出站三个不同阶段的心理需求各不相同。需要结合流浪儿童救助站的现有条件，设计符合流浪儿童心理需求、对流浪儿童有切实有效作用的心理救助服务的方式和方法，预防和减少流浪儿童重复流浪心理的形成，更好地实现流浪儿童救助。     

Science or Propaganda? An Examination of Rind,Tromovitch and Bauserman (1998)

SUMMARY

An article, “A Meta-analytic” Examination of Assumed Properties of Child Sexual Abuse Using College Samples, published in the July 1998 edition of the Psychological Bulletin resulted in an unprecedented amount of media attention and became the first scientific article to be formally denounced by the United States House of Representatives. The study's authors analyzed the findings of 59 earlier studies on child sexual abuse (CSA) and concluded that mental health researchers have greatly overstated CSA's harmful potential. They recommended that a willing encounter with positive reactions would no longer be considered to be sexual abuse; instead, it would simply be labeled adult-child sex. The study's conclusions and recommendations spawned a debate in both the popular and scholarly press. A number of commentators suggested that the study is pedophile propaganda masquerading as science. Others claimed that the authors are victims of a moralistic witch-hunt and that scientific freedom is being threatened. After a careful examination of the evidence, it is concluded that Rind et al. can best be described as an advocacy article that inappropriately uses science in an attempt to legitimize its findings.     

泰州市流浪未成年人的心理分类与救助策略研究

通过对泰州市救助管理站三年内登记救助的流浪未成年人进行分析归类,流浪未成年人大致分为四类:贫困型流浪、教育问题型流浪、家庭问题型流浪、主动型流浪。在心理救助过程中,可以根据情况选择运用提供社会支持、改变不良行为习惯、改变不良的认知以及同伴之间相互学习等方法对流浪儿童进行心理救助。     

合同水资源管理模式设计及其组织体系构建

在分析我国实施合同水资源管理的必要性与可行性基础上,按照最严格水资源管理制度要求,从我国国情实际出发,构建合同水资源管理模式,促进我国水利投融资体制改革。建议通过市场化和政府支持、水资源费支持、示范和认定、强化科技和计量工作等多种途径,促进合同水资源管理的发展,解决我国水资源短缺以及水环境污染治理等问题。     

护理干预对冠状动脉CT检查结果的影响分析

目的：评价护理干预对冠状动脉CTA（computed tomography angiography）检查患者心理状况、检查成功率、图像质量的影响。方法：选取我院2013年1月至2014年12月行冠脉CTA检查的500例患者,随机分为研究组（n=250）和对照组（n=250）,对照组仅进行常规护理,研究组则同时进行心理护理、心室率控制、呼吸屏气训练。结果：487例患者最终完成冠脉CT检查,其中研究组中2例、对照组中11例因严重焦虑恐惧及屏气不佳终止检查。研究组焦虑症状、心率、血压变化明显低于对照组,检查的成功率及图像质量显著提高（P<0.05）。结论：护理干预可减小冠脉CT检查患者的心理应激,提高检查的成功率及图像质量。