Residual Analysis for Inhomogeneous Neyman–Scott Processes

Abstract. In this article, we introduce a residual analysis for inhomogeneous Neyman–Scott models based on Laplace functionals. Our simulation study shows that this residual analysis method has a good performance in assessing goodness‐of‐fit and revealing inadequacy of the fitted model. The method is employed in fitting a Thomas model to California redwood trees data and a Matérn model to the locations of hickory trees in Lansing woods, Michigan.     

Dose‐Response Model of Coxiella burnetii (Q Fever)

Q fever is a zoonotic disease caused by the intracellular gram‐negative bacterium Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii), which only multiplies within the phagolysosomal vacuoles. Q fever may manifest as acute or chronic disease. The acute form is generally not fatal and manifestes as self‐controlled febrile illness. Chronic Q fever is usually characterized by endocarditis. Many animal models, including humans, have been studied for Q fever infection through various exposure routes. The studies considered different endpoints including death for animal models and clinical signs for human infection. In this article, animal experimental data available in the open literature were fit to suitable dose‐response models using maximum likelihood estimation. Research results for tests of severe combined immunodeficient mice inoculated intraperitoneally (i.p.) with C. burnetii were best estimated with the Beta‐Poisson dose‐response model. Similar inoculation (i.p.) trial outcomes conducted on C57BL/6J mice were best fit by an exponential model, whereas those tests run on C57BL/10ScN mice were optimally represented by a Beta‐Poisson dose‐response model.     

An alternative assessment of global climate policies

This paper analyzes alternative pricing schemes for funding investment in climate policies. This paper proposes a new policy scenario, explicitly disentangling the issue of burden sharing of financing new investments from the issue of taxation energy consumption and therefor emissions. We compare traditional allocation schemes with an optimal Ramsey pricing by applying demand elasticity values, derived from empirical estimations of household behavior for the 106 leading countries in the world, representing around 90% of total world energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2014. We calculate country-specific alternative taxation options: uniform, equitable and Ramsey pricing schemes, applied to households, assessing the related welfare effects. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme, for a given investment need, can improve world welfare at the expenses of equitable considerations. In addition, the aggregate societal benefit outweighs the losses associated with specific group of countries, paving the way for easier political agreement, using compensation schemes to redistribute the proceeds.     

The impact of avian influenza on the Korean egg market: Who benefited?

The historical decomposition and directed acyclic graph methods are employed to estimate the effect of avian influenza in Korea on egg price transmission between the farm, wholesale, and retail levels. Our findings suggest that farm and retail egg prices are connected by the wholesale price. We also find that the farm-wholesale and the wholesale-retail margins increase during the avian influenza period. Our results imply that the retailer and wholesaler use their market power to increase their price during the food safety crisis. Therefore, the Korean government should control market power by allowing more emergency egg imports.     

库存共享和服务水平限制下三级分销网络侧向转运模型与算法

侧向转运是库存共享的一种方式,一方面会减少库存成本,另一方面又会因转运而增加运输成本,针对这一问题考虑不同时间窗W^k的服务水平产生的服务水平的分级,构建三级分销网络中基于库存共享与时间服务水平限制的批量订货模型,分销网络模型中包含一个制造商、一个RDC、m个DC、n个客户。其中客户的需求相互独立且服从泊松分布,DC的订货提前期服从指数分布。首先,建立了基于时间服务水平限制的分销网络系统总成本最小化模型,并将再购点、订购批量等库存参数作为同时作为决策变量,以达到三级备件分销网络的成本优化;其次,根据问题和模型的特点对所建的模型开发了基于采用贪婪增加算法的求解思想求解问题,以便给管理者提供决策参考并通过降低利润的方式增加效益和资源利用率;最后,通过中航材集团推行的“航材共享”项目作为算例分析,将三个分销区域与机场群组成的备件分销系统进行建模分析,验证了本文模型的有效性,成本优化的显著性。研究结果表明,三级分销网络中,RDC采用连续盘点的（Q,R）补货策略、DC采用（Q,R,H）的补货策略时系统总成本与普遍采用的定期盘点策略和连续盘点中的One-for-One订货策略成本相比,DC之间的库存共享策略能有效降低整个系统的成本,例如,在案例研究中发现成本降低约为30%。     

The relationship among CO2 emissions,electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries

This paper proposes a panel vector error correction model investigation of a quadratic relationship linking CO₂ emissions, GDP levels and electric power consumption. We find that two independent long-run relationships emerge from the data. Since the null of homogeneity across units with regard to long-run elasticities is strongly rejected, we proceed by clustering countries according to the signs of the estimated coefficients. The approach allows us to form three groups: in the first there is evidence of an optimistic scenario, where both CO₂ emissions and electric power consumption are bound to decrease in the long-run. An optimistic scenario for emissions reduction is also provided in the second cluster where, however, the long-run relationship between income and electric power consumption shows an U-shaped pattern, instead. Finally, the third cluster can be associated with a much worrying scenario where per capita CO₂ is expected to grow with income. A joint consideration of long-run parameters and causality links allows us to propose cluster-tailored policy suggestions.     

企业创新策略选择与股价波动之间关系实证研究

本文以内地上市公司为研究对象,运用事件分析法研究了不同公司采用不同创新策略时,股票市场对其预期收益将做出何种调整与变化.研究姥.果表明:托宾Q值大于1的企业采取外部创新以及托宾Q值小于1的企业采取内部创新时,股价将上升;托宾Q值大于1的企业采取内部创新以及托宾Q值小于1的企业采取外部创新时,股价将下跌.     

中国电力上市公司股权结构问题研究

目前,中国电力行业上市公司明显存在着国有股比重大、机构投资者比重小且持股比例低和股权集中度不均衡等不合理因素。这些因素的存在使得股东治理权行使受阻、控制权转移受阻和公司经营业绩受到影响。因此,应在保持国有股占绝对控股地位的条件下,逐渐引入机构股和社会法人股,从而降低国有股的持股比例,使公司控制权适当分散在若干大股东手中,完善公司股权结构。     

"金字塔结构"、家族控制与企业价值——基于沪深股市的实证分析

家族控制企业成为我国资本市场一个越来越重要的组成部分,金字塔型控制模式又是家族控制企业普遍采用的形式.本文对金字塔型家族控制模式进行了理论研究.并以我国A股上市公司家族企业为样本,采用2003-2005年的面板数据进行实证研究.结果显示:家族控制企业在一定程度上有侵害其他股东的动机和具体行为;成"系"企业加大了家族控制股东侵害少数股东权益的概率和程度;家族控制企业一致行动人累计股权比例与企业价值呈现一定的U型关系;独立董事参与公司治理亦没有起到制度上防止掏空的监督和制约作用.     

托宾Q理论、估值体系重构与并购行为新特征

根据托宾Q比率理论,计算出了全流通进程中的我国沪深A股市场托宾Q值。通过国际比较,分析了目前托宾Q值仍然较高的我国沪深A股市场,随着限售股的逐步解禁和全流通进程的加快,解禁限售股股东减持行为发生的必然性,并由此导致了市场定价权由金融资本转移到产业资本。全流通不但使我国A股市场迅速进入了估值体系重构的过程,而且使市场并购行为产生了与以往不同的新的特征。提出了诸如完善市场运行机制,降低交易成本,增强市场活跃度;鼓励上市公司之间交叉持股,已经交叉持股的鼓励不减持;严格限制以恶意＂圈钱＂为目的、严重影响市场稳定的再融资行为,控制新股发行（IPO）速度;鼓励大股东发行可交换债券,缓解减持压力;提高社保资金、企业年金等长线资金的入市比例等稳定市场的政策建议。