松辽盆地扶余油田白垩系泉四段沉积微相研究

以岩芯和测井分析为基础,通过对吉林扶余油田白垩系泉四段的沉积背景、物源方向、沉积特征、沉积构造的研究,确定其为一套浅水三角洲沉积。区内以浅水三角洲前缘亚相沉积为主体,主要包括水下分流河道、水下分流河道间、水下天然堤和水下决口扇、砂质浅滩等5种沉积微相类型。此外,以单井微相分析为基础,结合大量的地球物理测井及录井资料,研究了区块内白垩系泉四段4个油层组、13个小层的沉积微相平面分布规律。研究结果表明：工区位于三角洲前缘的前部，缺乏前人研究认为的河口坝微相。其中，水下分流河道多呈NNE向和SN向带状展布，由于主河道的摆动，河道中心左右迁移，造成平面上河道砂体分布的不稳定，水下分流河道在第5、6、8、10小层发育。沉积微相的精细研究为油田的下一步开发以及主力层剩余油挖潜奠定了基础。     

启蒙思潮与“阿Q”的精神谱系

五四之后,启蒙思潮从原先寻求文化变革的思想启蒙变换为一种召唤暴力的阶级性革命启蒙,这种阶级性革命启蒙一直延续到十七年文学叙事之中;改革开放之后,启蒙思潮重新兴起,主要表现为经济意识的启蒙和受抑制的人性解放.从20世纪中国启蒙思潮视角,观照20世纪乡土中国文学典型作品,解读<阿Q正传>等文本所构成的"阿Q精神谱系"与启蒙思潮的内在关系,分析中国农民走向现代性的外部压抑性结构和内在思想阻力,对于探寻新世纪历史语境下"新启蒙主义"与农民思想解放的可能性具有重要意义.     

Adaptive plotting position and test of normality

The quantile–quantile plot is widely used to check normality. The plot depends on the plotting positions. Many commonly used plotting positions do not depend on the sample values. We propose an adaptive plotting position that depends on the relative distances of the two neighbouring sample values. The correlation coefficient obtained from the adaptive plotting position is used to test normality. The test using the adaptive plotting position is better than the Shapiro–Wilk W test for small samples and has larger power than Hazen's and Blom's plotting positions for symmetric alternatives with shorter tail than normal and skewed alternatives when n is 20 or larger. The Brown–Hettmansperger T* test is designed for detecting bad tail behaviour, so it does not have power for symmetric alternatives with shorter tail than normal, but it is generally better than the other tests when β₂ is greater than 3.25.     

The economic effects of common agricultural policy on Mediterranean montado/dehesa ecosystem

The decoupling of CAP payments leads production decisions and resources allocation to be more dependent on market prices and competitive advantages. The objective of this paper is to assess the effects of CAP trends on the montado/dehesa traditional ecosystem of Mediterranean regions in terms of farm income, land, labour and capital. A positive mathematical supply model disaggregated by the montado agro-forestry production systems of the Alentejo region in southern Portugal is developed. The results show that decoupling payments of CAP have negative economic effects on agricultural activities and resource use. Agricultural income increases with single farm payments but the foreseen increases in prices do not compensate the loss of the Agenda 2000 area payments in terms of competitiveness. These results reinforce the need to promote alternative agricultural and non-agricultural activities and policies in Mediterranean rural European areas and regions.     

Should commodity tax rates be uniform across regions in a heterogeneous country? Evidence from India

With countries increasingly adopting the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as their system of commodity taxes replacing the myriad of sales, excise and other form of indirect taxes, there is a move towards the two features that characterize the GST: uniform tax rates across items and identical tax rates across regions. When India introduced the GST in 2017, it followed several other countries in departing from the first feature but in keeping with universal practice embraced the second feature. The chief motivation of this paper is to subject this latter feature to critical scrutiny. The study examines the four GST rates in India by comparing them with counterfactual evidence based on preference based optimal commodity tax rates estimated by taking into account regional diversity in prices and spending. The benchmarking suggests that the current top GST rates (12%, 16% and 28%) are much higher than can be justified by the optimal rates. The Indian evidence is also in favor of departing from the universal practice in GST of adopting a uniform tax across items. The paper makes a methodological contribution by proposing a procedure for calculating spatial prices that can be applied to a wide basket of items. The study provides evidence on the redistributive potential of indirect taxation by showing the progressive nature of the optimal commodity taxes. The latter result is of particular significance in developing countries where indirect taxes raise the greater share of revenue and provide an important policy tool for tackling increasing inequality. The study concludes with a list of policy lessons as the country seeks to make further changes to its GST. While there is a significant literature on harmonization of indirect taxes across countries that belong to a single economic grouping such as the EU, there is no such literature between regions within a large heterogeneous country. The present study on tax harmonization between the states in India attempts to fill this gap.     

Reserve financing and government infrastructure investment: An application to China

This paper proposes a novel financing scheme, reserve financing, for government infrastructure investment in China. A two-sector open economy model explores the consequences and policy implications of a surge in infrastructure investment financed by international reserves. The results show that reserve financing, coupled with a managed float exchange rate system, can maintain the country's fast growth rate while mitigating fiscal pressure on local governments. Productive infrastructure capital stimulates domestic demand, reducing the country's dependence on exports. To promote growth and maintain price stability, three factors are critical: return on infrastructure, swift fiscal adjustment, and rapid infrastructure financing.     

WHY AGNOSTIC SIGN RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF OIL MARKET VAR MODELS

Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks in the market for crude oil. We demonstrate that sign restrictions alone are insufficient to infer the responses of the real price of oil to such shocks. Moreover, the conventional assumption that all admissible models are equally likely is routinely violated in oil market models, calling into question the use of posterior median responses to characterize the responses to structural shocks. When combining sign restrictions with additional empirically plausible bounds on the magnitude of the short‐run oil supply elasticity and on the impact response of real activity, however, it is possible to reduce the set of admissible model solutions to a small number of qualitatively similar estimates. The resulting model estimates are broadly consistent with earlier results regarding the relative importance of demand and supply shocks for the real price of oil based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models identified by exclusion restrictions, but imply very different dynamics from the posterior median responses in VAR models based on sign restrictions only.     

无名身份的解构叙事——《阿Q正传》叙事艺术解读

后现代叙事理论告诉我们叙事就是身份的制造,但对于制造一个无名身份的叙事,其本身就是反叙事的。鲁迅在《阿Q正传》里借助对阿Q的塑造为读者展示了这种无名身份的独特叙事过程:那就是作者在解构中还原,而读者被迫在还原中解构。这种叙事模式包含着深层的哲理意味,既是对叙事的挑战,也造就了叙事的伦理效应。     

多元广义压缩最小二乘估计

引进了多元线性模型中回归系数β＝Ｖｅｃ（Ｂ）的广义压缩最小二乘估计β（Ａ），讨论了它的约方误差与均方残差的性质，指出了根据均方误差准则选取Ａ值的主要缺陷，采用了一种选取Ａ值的新准则Ｑ（ｃ），它包含均方误差准则和最小二乘准则作为特例，并从理论上证明了Ｑ（ｃ）准则的优良性．     

A Remark on the Zhang Omnibus Test for Normality

Zhang (1999) proposed a novel test statistic Q for testing normality based on the ratio of two unbiased standard deviation estimators, q₁ and q₂, for the true population standard deviation σ. Mingoti & Neves (2003) discussed some properties of q₁ and q₂ and showed that the variance of q₁ increases as the true population variance increases. In this paper, we show that the distribution of q₁ is not normal. As a result, normality percentage points for Q are not appropriate. In this paper, percentage points of Q are obtained using simulations. Monte Carlo simulations are provided to evaluate the performance of the new method and Zhang's method.