基于Leslie矩阵模型的湖南省人口老龄化预测分析

基于相关统计数据,简要分析湖南省人口老龄化的现状,并根据2010年全国第六次人口普查数据,在传统的Leslie矩阵模型的基础上考虑受“二孩政策”影响下生育率水平的变化因素,对分组年龄人口进行预测,进而得到2020-2100年湖南省人口老龄化相关的指标预测值,预测发现其具有增长速度快、阶段性明显、高龄化现象严重等特征,因此政府迫切需要进行养老服务的转型升级,构建多元化、多层次的养老服务体系。     

On matrix variate skew-normal distributions

Two new families of matrix variate distributions are introduced. They are based on matrix normal distribution and yet can be used to model data involving skewness. The properties of the two families are investigated. Among others, the marginals, conditionals, stochastic representation, linear and quadratic forms are studied.     

考虑截面相关条件下的异质性面板数据协整回归模型的估计

 面板数据的非平稳分析是近年来迅速发展的方向,其中考虑截面相关情形下面板数据的协整分析的发展备受关注。Bai &; Kao（2006）得出了截面相关条件下面板协整估计的因子模型,但该模型只考虑了被解释变量截面相关情形,未考虑解释变量的截面相关,且假定各截面间长期协方差矩阵相同。本文在Bai（2006）考虑截面相关条件下面板数据协整回归模型估计的基础上将其结论推广至被解释变量和解释变量均截面相关及截面长期协方差矩阵不相同即异质性时的情形,并试图通过Monte Carlo 模拟讨论其小样本性质。并且由于截面间长期协方差矩阵异质性的存在,本文还针对两变量的协整系统提出了系数检验的组间均值t统计量。     

Response Time Distribution in a D-MAP/PH/1 Queue with General Customer Impatience

ABSTRACT

This paper presents two methods to calculate the response time distribution of impatient customers in a discrete-time queue with Markovian arrivals and phase-type services, in which the customers’ patience is generally distributed (i.e., the D-MAP/PH/1 queue). The first approach uses a GI/M/1 type Markov chain and may be regarded as a generalization of the procedure presented in Van Houdt ^[14] Van Houdt , B. ; Lenin , R. B. ; Blondia , C. Delay distribution of (im)patient customers in a discrete time D-MAP/PH/1 queue with age dependent service times Queueing Systems and Applications 2003 , 45 1 , 59 – 73 . [CROSSREF]  [Google Scholar] for the D-MAP/PH/1 queue, where every customer has the same amount of patience. The key construction in order to obtain the response time distribution is to set up a Markov chain based on the age of the customer being served, together with the state of the D-MAP process immediately after the arrival of this customer. As a by-product, we can also easily obtain the queue length distribution from the steady state of this Markov chain.

We consider three different situations: (i) customers leave the system due to impatience regardless of whether they are being served or not, possibly wasting some service capacity, (ii) a customer is only allowed to enter the server if he is able to complete his service before reaching his critical age and (iii) customers become patient as soon as they are allowed to enter the server. In the second part of the paper, we reduce the GI/M/1 type Markov chain to a Quasi-Birth-Death (QBD) process. As a result, the time needed, in general, to calculate the response time distribution is reduced significantly, while only a relatively small amount of additional memory is needed in comparison with the GI/M/1 approach. We also include some numerical examples in which we apply the procedures being discussed.     

Shift Techniques and Canonical Factorizations in the Solution of M/G/1-Type Markov Chains

ABSTRACT

By using properties of canonical factorizations, we prove that under very mild assumptions, the shifted cyclic reduction method (SCR) can be applied for solving QBD problems with no breakdown and that it always converges. For general M/G/1 type Markov chains we prove that SCR always converges if no breakdown is encountered. Numerical experiments showing the acceleration provided by SCR versus cyclic reduction are presented.     

Admissibility of Linear Predictors in the Superpopulation Model with Respect to Inequality Constraints under Matrix Loss Function

Admissibility of linear predictors for the linear quantity Qy is investigated in a superpopulation model with respect to some inequality constraints. Necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear predictor to be admissible in the class of homogeneous linear predictors and the class of inhomogeneous linear predictors are obtained, respectively, under matrix loss function.     

Characterization of Admissible Linear Estimators in Multivariate Linear Model with Respect to Inequality Constraints under Matrix Loss Function

In this article, we study the characterization of admissible linear estimators in a multivariate linear model with inequality constraint, under a matrix loss function. In the homogeneous class, we present several equivalent, necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear estimator of estimable functions to be admissible. In the inhomogeneous class, we find that the necessary and sufficient conditions depend on the rank of the matrix in the constraint. When the rank is greater than one, the necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained. When the rank is equal to one, we have necessary conditions and sufficient conditions separately. We also obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear estimator of inestimable function to be admissible in both classes.     

中国金融资金流量矩阵表延长模型研究

金融资金流量矩阵表具有重要应用价值,然而我国资金流量表只采用账户表式,而且数据滞后严重,使其应用价值难以实现。本文在对资金流量矩阵表表式结构、账户分类和平衡关系进行深入理解的基础上,将计量经济模型中的多元回归模型、时间序列模型、状态空间模型及RAS模型有效地组合在一起,设计了一套延长金融资金流量矩阵表的组合模型,然后应用该模型将我国金融资金流量矩阵表从2009年延长至2012年。经后验法检验,数据质量达到了一个较为理想的状态。这套模型可以作为官方统计机构或民间研究机构延长资金流量表数据的通用方法使用。     

Inference in affine shape theory under elliptical models

This paper studies the elliptical statistical affine shape theory under certain particular conditions on the evenness or oddness of the number of landmarks. In such a case, the related distributions are polynomials, and the inference is easily performed; as an example, a landmark data is studied, and the performance of the polynomial density versus the usual series density is compared.     

Moments and quadratic forms of matrix variate skew normal distributions

ABSTRACT

In 2007, Domínguez-Molina et al. obtained the moment generating function (mgf) of the matrix variate closed skew normal distribution. In this paper, we use their mgf to obtain the first two moments and some additional properties of quadratic forms for the matrix variate skew normal distributions. The quadratic forms are particularly interesting because they are essentially correlation tests that introduce a new type of orthogonality condition.