On the Identification and Early Warning of College Students＇ Psychological Crisis from the Perspectiveof Life Education

心理危机的识别与预警既是预防心理危机发生的重要策略，也是对危机当事人和相关人进行生命教育和促进生命成长的重要机会。心理危机产生的原因具有复杂性，发生过程具有阶段性，危机现象具有特殊性，危机爆发具有极端性，危机发生也具有一定规律性。因此，在进行生命教育过程中，需要关注不同类别的生命个体、不同阶段的生命现象、处在规律中的独特生命个体，同时要注意识别生命危机信号和生命求救信号。     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

Replication: Revisiting Tversky and Shafir’s (1992) Disjunction Effect with an extension comparing between and within subject designs

Does uncertainty about an outcome influence decisions? The sure-thing principle (Savage, 1954) posits that it should not, but Tversky and Shafir (1992) found that people regularly violate it in hypothetical gambling and vacation decisions, a phenomenon they termed “disjunction effect”. Very close replications and extensions of Tversky and Shafir (1992) were conducted in this paper (N = 890, MTurk). The target article demonstrated the effect using two paradigms in a between-subject design: here, an extension also testing a within-subject design, with design being randomly assigned was added. These results were consistent with the original findings for the “paying to know“ problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.22, 95% (CI) [0.14, 0.32]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.30, 95% CI [0.24, 0.37]), yet not for the “choice under risk” problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.26, 95% CI [0.14, 0.39]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.11, 95% CI [−0.07, 0.20]). The within-subject extension showed very similar results. Implications for the disjunction effect and judgment and decision-making theory are discussed, and a call for improvements on the statistical understanding of comparisons of between-subject and within-subject designs is introduced. All materials, data, and code are available on https://osf.io/gu58m/.     

Trust and the Dilemmas of Suicide Risk Assessment in Non-government Mental Health Services

Reducing suicide rates is a national mental health priority as over 2,200 people die from suicide each year in Australia. Increasingly, nongovernment organisations (NGOs) provide services to people experiencing severe and persistent mental illnesses—a significant cohort at risk of suicide. While clinical services are generally seen as the arbiters of risk, little is known of how suicide risk assessments are undertaken in NGOs. This article reports the findings of a survey-based pilot study of 44 frontline workers in mental health-focused NGOs in Tasmania, Australia, with the aim of sketching a preliminary picture of this under-studied terrain. We identified the assessment practices utilised by workers, and the challenges and dilemmas they experienced in navigating issues of trust in suicide risk assessment in contexts where they often felt vulnerable and under-prepared. We argue that these early findings demonstrate the need for organisations to foster cultures of trust to facilitate both the activities of relationship building between practitioners and clients, and those of monitoring risk.     

Building up Resilience in a Pharmaceutical Supply Chain through Inventory,Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity

This paper is inspired by a risk management problem faced by a leading pharmaceutical company. Key operational risk mitigation measures include Risk Mitigation Inventory (RMI), Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity. We study the relationship between these three measures by modeling the drug manufacturing firm that is exposed to supply chain disruption risk. The firm determines optimal RMI levels for assumed Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity. We quantify the decrease in RMI levels in the presence of Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity. Furthermore, using an example, we analyze RMI, Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity decisions jointly. It turns out that RMI and Agility Capacity can be substitutes as long as no Dual Source is available. Once the Dual Source is available, Agility Capacity and Dual Sourcing appear to be substitutes. We further show that for long disruption times, the optimal Dual Source production rate may decrease in the disruption time. Within our modeling framework, we introduce an operational metric that quantifies Supply Chain Resilience. Supply chain disruptions can have a severe business impact and need to be managed appropriately.     

Commitment to tax compliance: Timing effect on willingness to evade

Experimental and empirical literature on individual decision-making has shown a remarkable difference between planning and ongoing decisions: when asked to plan their actions, people overweight events with low probability; on the contrary, in ongoing decisions, they tend to ignore them. We report on a laboratory experiment designed to explore the presence of this decisional inconsistency in taxpayers’ behavior, by means of a commitment system for compliance. In line with the overweighting of events with small probabilities (i.e. fiscal audits), we find that planning induces the majority of people not only to adopt a mechanism of commitment to tax compliance, but also to actually comply.     

Calculation of the expected lifetime lost due to an extra risk

Methods are given for estimating the average years of life lost when a person is discovered to be at risk from an extra hazard. The methods use the probability per year of the extra risk striking, and the mean and standard deviation of lifetime in the absence of the risk. The formulae are simple enough that only a hand‐held calculator is needed.     

Keep Your Friends Close? Supply Chain Design and Disruption Risk

In this article, we evaluate the relationship between supply chain design decisions and supply chain disruption risk. We explore two supply chain design strategies: (i) the dispersion of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk versus (ii) the co‐location of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk. In addition, we assess supply chain disruption risk from three perspectives: the inbound material flow from the supplier (supply side), the internal production processes (internal), and the outbound material flow to the customer (customer side) as a disruption can occur at any of these locations. We measure disruption risk in terms of stoppages in flows, reductions in flow, close calls (disruptions that were prevented at the last minute), disruption duration (time until normal operation flow was restored), and the spread of disruptions all the way through the supply chain. We use seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to analyze our data, finding that lead times, especially supply side lead times, are significantly associated with higher levels of supply chain disruption risk. We find co‐location with suppliers appears to have beneficial effects to the reduction of disruption duration, and, overall supply side factors have a higher impact when it comes to supply chain disruption risk than comparable customer side factors.     

Lessons from the Grey Area: A Closer Inspection of At-risk Gamblers

The study takes a closer look at at-risk gamblers, with the objective to see how they differ from no-risk gamblers. The data comes from a national gambling survey in 2002, and the age group is 15–74 years. The sample consists of 4188 current gamblers with no current gambling problems or pathology. The analysis includes cross-tabulations and a logistic regression. The results show that at-risk gamblers differed substantially from no-risk gamblers in terms of demographic characteristics, gambling behaviour and the presence of other assumed risk factors. Demographic segments with a higher risk of falling into the at-risk group are men, young people, divorced or single people, and non-western immigrants. Furthermore, gambling problems in the family, beginners luck and misconceptions about winning chances significantly increased the odds for at-risk gambling. The study concludes that at-risk gamblers deserve more attention from research, that their similarity with problem gamblers increases the likelihood that many of them will eventually develop a gambling problem, and that their tendency to be superstitious about winning chances might be exploited in preventive work.