资本外逃的成因:文献评述及政策含义

国外理论界对于资本外逃成因诠释的文献,主要有资产组合理论、人力资本理论、政党轮流执政理论、公共地悲剧理论和政治风险理论,这些理论从不同角度诠释了资本外逃产生的原因及其内在机制,从一个侧面体现了经济学研究的方法论,从早期的文字阐述到模型的构建,从早期的假说、推测到近期的计量分析验证的演进轨迹。     

论企业信用风险的管理与控制

随着我国市场经济的进一步发展,以赊销为代表的信用销售发展也很快。如何加强应收账款管理,防范信用风险,避免坏账损失,成为众多企业面临的一个重大问题。作者对此问题进行了分析,阐述了当前企业信用风险的现状与成因,并结合我国国情和企业实际,探讨了在新形势下有关信用风险的管理与控制问题。     

基于尾部指数回归方法的CVaR估计以及实证研究

 在险价值VaR是一种非常重要的金融风险度量方法,近期也有很多关于动态VaR以及条件VaR (CVaR) 等方面的研究。根据金融资产的收益率具有重尾特征这一事实,本文假定金融资产收益率服从重尾分布,并假定重尾分布的尾部指数随着收益率发生变化。本文基于尾部指数回归模型对重尾分布的尾部指数进行估计,进而得到收益率尾部数据所服从的条件分布,并首次运用该方法对条件VaR进行估计。本文对沪深300指数进行了实证研究,得到CVaR的估计,并对估计得到的CVaR的预测效果作出检验,并与传统VaR估计方法进行了对比,实证结果发现本文的方法的预测效果更好。     

风险，创新激励政策中被忽视的关键要素

创新是经济持续增长的核心动力,鼓励创新是各国国家创新战略的关键.现行的创新相关政策忽视了如何从风险管理的角度,系统地控制和分散从事创新活动的参与者所面临的风险.本文试图从这个被人忽视的视角,探讨如何鼓励人们进行自主创新的逻辑框架;并对相关理论研究假设进行了实证检验,以期为政府决策者提供新思路.     

Communicating future water needs to an at-risk population: lessons learned following defeat of the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project in San Antonio,Texas

San Antonio, Texas, the seventh largest city in the United States, has experienced steady population growth, since the “boom” of the 1960s. Projected water shortages due to this growth were realized as early as the 1970s by city leaders and south-central Texas regional development decision makers. To reduce dependence on the already over-taxed, Edwards aquifer, a solution, the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project, was developed with wide acceptance by federal, state, and city leaders who regarded the project as a necessary measure for regional growth and development. However, opposition by taxpayer and environmental groups led to referendums of 1991 and 1994 in which voters blocked construction of the dam and reservoir leaving the city with limited options for water provision. This case study investigated the factors which led to a clear mismatch in communication between decision makers—those who were aware of the actual and quantifiable risk to the region in terms of reduced water supplies—and the general public, a population that did not have complete and/or adequate knowledge of their actual risk regarding future water shortages, nor, of solutions being developed, such as the Applewhite project. The findings from this case study indicate that when municipal leadership fails to adequately communicate risk regarding resource shortage to an affected public, as well as, openly planned solutions, that voters are likely to underestimate future impacts of water shortages, heed last-minute opposition, and reject long-standing, publicly proposed projects. The intent of this research is not to support either side in the Applewhite controversy, but to shed perspective on the process of adequately and effectively communicating future water needs to an at-risk population. Decision makers in cities across the United States who are faced with solving problems of limited resources needed by a large populace may be informed by the results of this research.     

A Model of Quality of College Life (QCL) of Students in Korea

This study develops and tests a model of quality of college life (QCL) of students in Korea. In this study, QCL of students is conceptualized in terms of needs satisfaction and affect balance. It has been hypothesized that satisfaction with education services, administrative services, and facilities have a significant impact on QCL, which in turn positively influences identification, positive word of mouth, and overall quality of life. The results of a survey on 228 Korean college students largely support the model. Managerial and policy implications are discussed.     

Life satisfaction and family structure among adolescents in Hong Kong

Relationships between family structure and perceived life satisfaction in overall life and five domains of the Brief Multidimensional Students’ Life Satisfaction Scale, family life, friendships, school experience, myself, and where I live were examined among 4,502 Chinese adolescent secondary school students in Hong Kong. Bivariate analyses showed that economic status was not a significant risk factor, but gender, level of study, and migrant status had to be controlled to examine the life satisfaction-family structure relations. Logistic regression analyses found that in overall life, with adolescents living with two parents as standard for comparisons, adolescents living with mother had similar life satisfaction, but those living with father only, and those with no parents, or single parent with other adults had very much higher risk of life dissatisfaction. Specifically, the risks associated with the adverse family structures were most excessive in the domain of ‘family life’.     

AFFECTIVE RESPONSES WITHIN A COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING TASK: THE INFLUENCE OF “PERCEPTUALLY” ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS

The perceptual effects of varying levels of expert advice for potentially improving on strategic decisions were examined in conjunction with goals. The amounts of advice about decision alternatives, as well as assigned goals ranging from “nearly impossible” to “easy,” were manipulated. The task used was complex and functioned perceptually as an “ill-structured” problem. Mixed results indicated that more advice significantly affected satisfaction but advice in general had little influence on effort. On the other hand, as goal difficulty decreased, satisfaction and effort significantly increased. Easy goals were superior to more difficult ones within this perceptually ill-structured decision-making situation.     

Measures of individual risk attitudes and portfolio choice: Evidence from pension participants

We use a large non-student sample to test how distinct measures of risk-attitudes relate to each other, to demographic characteristics and to real-life risk taking in the financial domain. These measures, namely the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task (BRET), self-reported willingness to take risks in general, the choice in a hypothetical lottery, the score in the Domain Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale, appear to be positively correlated and exhibit a certain degree of consistency. Furthermore, a subset of these measures is driven by similar demographic characteristics as such that males are more risk seeking and risk-aversion increases with age. Using extensive data on the retirement portfolios of the participants during the years 2008–2014, we find that all of these measures are positively correlated with the riskiness of individual portfolios. The self-reported willingness to take risks in general appears to be the most relevant measure in predicting actual risk-taking behavior.