角色理论下的城乡社区干部素质对比分析——关于黄石市村委会和居委会干部素质的比较研究

在政治思想的先导下,以"新农村"中干部的应起作用为入手点,主要运用角色理论探讨"新农村"干部应具有的业务、能力等素质。在围绕角色期望展开角色距离的讨论中发现,农村村委会干部与城市社区居委会干部都存在角色失调,并将其与居民意识定义下的社区工作者的角色期望进行对比,得出村委会干部较居委会干部与之存在更大的角色距离值。立基于角色距离值,为黄石市所需的城乡社区工作者提出以人为中心的社区工作服务理念的相关建议。     

Change-of-variance problem for linear processes with long memory

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic properties of the test statistics for detecting change-points in the variance of infinite moving average sequences with long memory. This research is partly supported by NSFC Grants and SRF for ROCS, SEM.     

A Novel Method to Calculate Mean Survival Time for Time-to-Event Data

In the analysis of time-to-event data, restricted mean survival time has been well investigated in the literature and provided by many commercial software packages, while calculating mean survival time remains as a challenge due to censoring or insufficient follow-up time. Several researchers have proposed a hybrid estimator of mean survival based on the Kaplan–Meier curve with an extrapolated tail. However, this approach often leads to biased estimate due to poor estimate of the parameters in the extrapolated “tail” and the large variability associated with the tail of the Kaplan–Meier curve due to small set of patients at risk. Two key challenges in this approach are (1) where the extrapolation should start and (2) how to estimate the parameters for the extrapolated tail. The authors propose a novel approach to calculate mean survival time to address these two challenges. In the proposed approach, an algorithm is used to search if there are any time points where the hazard rates change significantly. The survival function is estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method prior to the last change point and approximated by an exponential function beyond the last change point. The parameter in the exponential function is estimated locally. Mean survival time is derived based on this survival function. The simulation and case studies demonstrated the superiority of the proposed approach.     

Locally optimal invariant tests for change in level

The classical change point problem is considered, from the invariance point of view. Locally optimal invariant tests are derived for the change in level, when the initial level and the common variance are assumed to be unknown. The tests derived by Chernoff and Zacks (1964) and Gardner (1969), for the change in level, when variance is known, are shown to be locally optimal invariant tests.     

东方语境下大学生英语自主学习中的教师作用

本文认为在东方传统文化以教师为权威的环境下,大学生英语自主学习能力的培养,离不开教师的正确指导,教师的作用不可或缺。     

政府偏好与制度起源:以1950年代后的收容遣送政策为例

尽管学术文献里没有给出政府偏好的恰当定义,但它的确是解释中国制度变迁中的一个重要变量。运用制度学派的有关制度变迁理论,对收容遣送制度起源的历史作出政治学的解释,可以认为,巩固政权以及与此相联系的城市化与工业化的双重压力,都对政府治理城市秩序的偏好产生了重大影响。1950年代以后的收容遣送政策及其实践,为考察政府偏好与制度设计之间的关联提供了生动的素材。     

社会角色理论视域下高校问题学生行为失范

高校"问题学生"行为失范已得到社会的普遍关注,基于前人研究的基础,立足客观实际,开辟新视角,将社会角色理论引入对这一问题的研究,不仅对"问题学生"和"行为失范"进行了重新界定,从角色转换、角色冲突、角色错位、角色失败四个方面分析了高校"问题学生"行为失范产生的缘由,并提出了相应的对策。     

社会实践结构性巨变视野下的改革与和谐

我们处于一个由社会实践的结构性变化引发和加剧差异的时代,改革与和谐是应对差异时代的必然选择,也是最佳选择。对于中国社会变迁过程来说,改革是推进社会实践结构性变化的必要手段,和谐是引导这一变化健康发展的必经之路,二者相辅相成、缺一不可。随着落实科学发展观、构建和谐社会的提出,中国的改革正式进入了要缩小社会差距的新阶段,我们要超越短期、狭隘、权宜性的观念,促进改革与和谐的长久、良性互动。     

简论中国人民救济总会的角色、作用与社会影响

中国人民救济总会是新中国建立初期由政府组织成立的、具有过渡性质的、特殊的民间组织。在国内,救总负责团结、领导全国从事救济福利事业的团体和个人,协助政府组织群众进行生产劳动;在国际上,救总作为一个群众性质的救济组织,代表中国人民向朝鲜、越南、印度、日本等国家遭受自然灾害、战争灾难的人民提供救济。在建国初期特殊的历史背景下,救总既为国内赈灾救济事业做出了非凡的成就,也是新中国的民间对外交流窗口。