人口迁移与流动对我国各地区经济影响的实证分析

在对近十年来我国人口迁移和流动的时空演变格局进行初步考察的基础上,文章利用面板数据的变系数模型分别实证考察了人口迁移和流动对我国各地区(省域)经济的影响。结果发现:(1)我国各地区间人口迁移相对平稳,而人口流动在2000年以后呈现出持续快速增长的态势,且空间流向极不均衡;(2)人口的迁移和流动对中国整体经济来说是一个帕累托改进;(3)户籍制度对于发达地区起到了人才沙漏的作用;(4)对于中部的绝大部分地区以及西部的一些人口输出大省,伴随人口迁出而引起的人力资本流失对当地经济的负面影响开始凸显出来,人口流出虽然基本出现一个正面影响,但对本地经济发展的贡献并不如我们预想的那么明显。     

大学生性别角色群体对同性恋态度的研究

同性恋是当今社会无法回避且必须正视的问题之一,高校校园中的同性恋状况更值得关注。对1288名大学生的调查发现,大学生中的未分化角色和双性化角色比例较高,大学生群体的性别角色与其对同性恋的态度具有一定关联性。同性恋在高校校园具有一定的比例,但大学生对同性恋的态度总体比较客观和宽容,同时也发现现有性别教育不能满足现实需要,应该通过防艾知识教育、心理健康教育、性别角色教育加强大学生的性别教育。     

社会角色理论视域下高校问题学生行为失范

高校"问题学生"行为失范已得到社会的普遍关注,基于前人研究的基础,立足客观实际,开辟新视角,将社会角色理论引入对这一问题的研究,不仅对"问题学生"和"行为失范"进行了重新界定,从角色转换、角色冲突、角色错位、角色失败四个方面分析了高校"问题学生"行为失范产生的缘由,并提出了相应的对策。     

Predictors of treatment outcome in a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic: A naturalistic exploration

We present data on predictors of treatment outcome for 3200 consecutive referrals to a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic. Using Reliable Change Index (RCI) methodology, we divided children into those who, between intake and discharge, improved, stayed the same, or got worse according to clinician-rated impairment. Most predictors of improvement were related to parent variables (marital status, maternal anxiety, and ethnicity), while those associated with deterioration were tied to child status (extent of psychiatric comorbidity, history of placement in a self-contained classroom, and a prior trial of psychotropic medications). The implications of these findings for data-driven program development, clinic management, treatment planning, and systems of care are discussed.     

Development of professional roles in the practice of public relations in Chile

Using survey responses of 577 public relation practitioners, this article examines role conceptions in Chilean public relations, as well as the effects that different individual and organizational factors have on their professional worldviews. The results show that how Chilean practitioners perceive their roles can be grouped into four different types: the long-term strategic, the short-term technical, the passive-complaisant, and the active-vigilant. In general terms, Chilean public relations practitioners distance themselves from the passive-complaisant role, giving greater importance to the other three. The findings also reveal that gender, education level, job commitment, perceived autonomy, organization type, and geographical location are the factors that better predict Chilean PR professional roles, while hierarchy level and organization's reach do not directly affect their perceptions.     

碳强度目标:演进、理由与实现

碳强度目标是关于未来要达到的温室气体排放强度的国家承诺。研究碳强度目标对于认识和实现中国气候承诺具有重要意义。严格性、约束力和覆盖范围是碳强度目标的关键要素。碳强度目标具有坚实的理论基础和深刻的现实背景,至少具有与温室气体数量目标同等重要的地位。降低碳强度需要降低温室气体的边际弹性或国民生产总值的边际碳强度,需要将国家碳强度目标分解到行业和企业,还要建立碳排放交易制度。     

政府偏好与制度起源:以1950年代后的收容遣送政策为例

尽管学术文献里没有给出政府偏好的恰当定义,但它的确是解释中国制度变迁中的一个重要变量。运用制度学派的有关制度变迁理论,对收容遣送制度起源的历史作出政治学的解释,可以认为,巩固政权以及与此相联系的城市化与工业化的双重压力,都对政府治理城市秩序的偏好产生了重大影响。1950年代以后的收容遣送政策及其实践,为考察政府偏好与制度设计之间的关联提供了生动的素材。     

气候变化政治对海湾国家的影响

海湾地区气候炎热,淡水资源缺乏。长期以来,海湾国家主要依靠能源出口获取大量资金,借此修建海水淡化工厂等各种设施以适应和改善气候环境的影响。近年来,国际社会在应对全球变暖问题的协调合作中,已形成一种处理全球气候变化的政治。气候变化政治要求各国减少能源消耗和降低二氧化碳排放量以缓解全球变暖趋势,从而对海湾国家以能源出口收益来维护生存环境和社会稳定的基本经济模式构成冲击。面对气候变化政治带来的冲击,海湾国家目前的权宜选择只能是继续扩大能源出口,并尽量拖延实施气候变化协议来进行应对。然而,这种做法虽可以暂时保持海湾国家改善环境的努力和维护其经济政治结构稳定,但却难以消除全球气候变化政治今后长期推动能源结构调整和节能减排所带来的压力。     

Monotonic change point estimation of generalized linear model-based regression profiles

In this article, a maximum likelihood estimator is derived in the generalized linear model-based regression profiles under monotonic change in Phase II. The performance of the proposed estimator is comprehensively investigated through some special cases, and compared with estimators under step change and drift. The results show that the proposed estimator has better performance in small and medium shifts under different increasing changes. Finally, the applicability of the proposed estimator is illustrated using a real case.     

Likelihood procedure for testing changes in skew normal model with applications to stock returns

The skew normal distribution family is an attractive distribution family due to its mathematical tractability and inclusion of the normal distribution as the special case. It has wide applications in many applied fields such as finance, economics, and medical research. Such a distribution family has been studied extensively since it was introduced by Azzalini in 1985 Azzalini, A. (1985). A class of distributions which includes the normal ones. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 12:171–178. [Google Scholar] for the first time. Yet, few work has been done on the study of change point problem related to this distribution family. In this article, we propose the likelihood ratio test (LRT) to detect changes in the parameters of the skew normal distribution associated with some asymptotic results of the test statistic. Simulations have been conducted under different scenarios to investigate the performance of the proposed method. Comparisons to some other existing method indicate the comparable power of the method in detecting changes in parameters of the skew normal distribution model. Applications on two real data: Brazilian and Tanzanian stock returns illustrate the detection procedure.