因子分析在电力上市公司经营业绩评价中的应用

文章运用SPSS13.0软件,对沪深电力行业43家上市公司2004年度的11个主要财务指标进行了因子分析,从中提取出5个具有一定含义的因子,以评价各公司的综合经营业绩,并对这些公司的整体情况进行了分析与讨论。文章还提出:应结合不同的主体和不同的时期来确定评价角度,以作出客观有效的经营业绩评价。     

数字图书馆知识管理的创新

阐述数字图书馆知识管理的涵义以及知识管理创新的内容,并通过一些国内外的知识管理案例来说明。理论与实践结合,具有一定的现实意义。     

Coordinating Service‐Sensitive Demand and Capacity by Adaptive Decision Making: An Application of Case‐Based Decision Theory*

The subject of this article is the simultaneous choice of product price and manufacturing capacity if demand is stochastic and service‐level sensitive. In this setting, capacity as well as price have an impact on demand because several aspects of service level depend on capacity. For example, delivery time will be reduced if capacity is increased given a constant demand rate. We illustrate the relationship between service level, capacity, and demand reaction by a stylized application problem from the after‐sales services industry. The reaction of customers to variations in service level and price is represented by a kinked price‐demand‐rate function. We first derive the optimal price‐capacity combination for the resulting decision problem under full information. Subsequently, we focus on a decision maker (DM) who lacks complete knowledge of the demand function. Hence the DM is unable to anticipate the service level and consequently cannot identify the optimal solution. However, the DM will acquire additional information during the sales process and use it in subsequent revisions of the price‐capacity decision. Thus, this decision making is adaptive and based on experience. In contrast to the literature, which assumes certain repetitive procedures somewhat ad hoc, we develop an adaptive decision process based on case‐based decision theory (CBDT) for the price‐capacity problem. Finally, we show that a CBDT DM in our setting eventually finds the optimal solution, if the DM sets the price based on absorption costs and adequately adjusts the capacity with respect to the observed demand.     

决策分析的情景树方法及其应用

本文结合一个实例介绍了贝叶斯决策问题的情景树表示和求解.在情景树中,不需要计算条件概率,仅需要每条路径的联合概率.给出了求解情景树的方法--删除法,并将情景树方法与决策树方法进行了比较分析.     

“电路分析基础”课程改革的思考

为了适应科学技术的发展 ,《电路分析基础》课程要在教学内容、教学思想、教学手段等方面进行改革。多年来我们进行了一些改革与实践。课程的改革和电子电路系列课程的整体优化是相辅相成的 ,把系列课程 ,包括实验课程结合起来进行整体优化是深化改革的关键。多媒体教学手段的推广应用也必将引发课堂教学的革命     

Real Estate Taxation and Commercial Mortgage Underwriting

Recent disclosures about problem commercial real estate loans have exposed the underwriting process to intense scrutiny. This study focuses on mortgage loan underwriters of life insurance companies. After a review of the tax changes that affected commercial real estate from 1969 through 1988, the study tests how loan underwriters reacted to changes in tax benefits. To overcome the interdependent effects of interest rates and capitalization rates, a variation of the Black-Scholes pricing model is used to test the impact of changes in tax benefits. The results indicate that the underwriters do not fully incorporate the value of tax benefits in the underwriting decision. During the period of the largest tax benefits, 1982 to 1986, underwriters became more conservative and increased their equity requirements.     

Determining the Critical Elements of Just-In-Time Implementation

There are a limited number of papers dealing primarily with the implementation aspect of JIT. While the literature shows almost general agreement on the critical elements of JIT implementation, few empirical studies exist to support the proposed elements. The purpose of this study is to identify the elements of JIT implementation that are required to ensure successful implementation. A number of implementation elements were identified and subsequently grouped into a hierarchical structure consisting of four broader elements. Criteria were selected as measures of the level of implementation success. Analysis revealed that only a few of the identified elements were indeed required for successful JIT implementation.     

Chance Constrained Programming Approach to Empirical Analyses of Mutual Fund Investment Strategies*

Chance constrained programming concepts are used to formalize risk and return relations which are then modeled for use in an empirical study of mutual fund behavior during the period 1984 through 1988. The publicly announced strategies of individual funds are used to form ex ante risk classifications which are employed in examining ex post performance. Negative relations between risk and return held in every year of the period studied. The bearing of these negative risk-return findings for the Bowman paradox, as studied in the strategic management literature, are thus extended from the industrial firms studied by Bowman (and others) and shown to be present even in these investment oriented mutual funds in each of the years of the great bull market from 1984 through 1988. Finally, our use of chance constrained programming enables us to separate risk from return behavior and evaluate their relative strengths as sources of these negative relations, which are found to be more in the returns than the risks.     

Risk Attitude,Ambiguity Intolerance and Decision Making: An Exploratory Investigation*

Although recent research has identified attitudes towards ambiguity and risk to be important determinants of choice behavior [8] [18], no prior work jointly assessed the roles of both attitudes. We conducted a laboratory experiment using a real decision scenario and conducted exploratory analyses of the relationship between attitudes towards risk and ambiguity and the decision taken by the subjects. The results support the prediction that attitudes towards both risk and ambiguity affect choice behavior. Our exploratory analyses indicate interesting avenues for future research, including an examination of the decision process itself.     

Marketplace Competition in the Personal Computer Industry*

A decision regarding development and introduction of a potential new product depends, in part, on the intensity of compeitition anticipated in the marketplace. In the case of a technology-based product such as a personal computer (PC), the number of competing products may be very dynamic and consequently uncertain. We address this problem by modeling growth in the number of new PCs as a stochastic counting process, incorporating product entries and exits. We demonstrate how to use the resulting model to forecast competition five years in advance.