A Bayesian predictive inference for small area means incorporating covariates and sampling weights

The main goal in small area estimation is to use models to ‘borrow strength’ from the ensemble because the direct estimates of small area parameters are generally unreliable. However, model-based estimates from the small areas do not usually match the value of the single estimate for the large area. Benchmarking is done by applying a constraint, internally or externally, to ensure that the ‘total’ of the small areas matches the ‘grand total’. This is particularly useful because it is difficult to check model assumptions owing to the sparseness of the data. We use a Bayesian nested error regression model, which incorporates unit-level covariates and sampling weights, to develop a method to internally benchmark the finite population means of small areas. We use two examples to illustrate our method. We also perform a simulation study to further assess the properties of our method.     

中小城市社会工作专业实习困境与资源拓展分析

实习是社会工作专业教学的重要环节。但受区位经济和人文环境的影响,中小城市社会工作专业实习常常因实习机构缺乏,督导乏力,案主资源难以获得,经费不足等问题而陷入困境。要拓展实习资源可采取专业的社会推介、校内实训以及多种区外资源合作形式。     

Small Group Predictions on an Uncertain Outcome: The Effect of Nondiagnostic Information

Research has established that exposure to a combination of diagnostic (i.e., relevant) and nondiagnostic (i.e., irrelevant) information results in predictions that are more regressive than predictions based on diagnostic information (Hackenbrack, 1992; Hoffman and Patton, 1997). This phenomenon has been labeled the dilution effect (e.g., Tetlock and Boettger, 1989) and has been documented when individuals make predictions. This study tests for the dilution effect when small groups make predictions, and examines the effect of using a procedure designed to reduce the dilution effect. Results indicate that group predictions are influenced by nondiagnostic information in the same manner as are individual predictions, and allowing participants to rate the diagnosticity of information prior to making predictions does not reduce the dilution effect.     

高云览《小城春秋》的创作艺术

《小城春秋》的艺术经验就是：把真实生活作为文学素材,在广泛借鉴的基础上进行创造,主动寻求批评,容纳各种意见,慎重取舍,化史入诗达到艺术精品。高云览的创作实践启示我们：正确处理生活与艺术的关系、继承与创造的关系、表达与修改的关系、创作与批评的关系。     

当前中小型出口企业面临的困境及原因探析

 2007年以来,在国内外形势趋紧的背景下,我国出口增幅逐步回落,出口企业承受的压力明显加大,特别是中小型出口企业出口下降,亏损和经营困难企业增多。本文结合作者在深圳、东莞和中山三市的调研情况,对当前出口企业的困境做深入分析,力图客观、全面地把握出口企业情况。     

政府采购与经济增长的实证研究——基于ARMA最优模型

本文采用基于ARMA模型适用于小样本的最优预测的建模方法,来分析政府采购和经济增长之间的因果关系。研究结果表明政府采购和经济增长之间存在非对称、单向因果关系,即政府采购对经济增长的影响不显著,而经济增长对政府采购具有促进作用。因此,从政府采购影响路径的角度分析认为,在后金融危机时代应该采取一些可行的措施扭转政府采购对经济增长的不显著状况。     

The moderating effects of home region orientation on R&D investment and international SME performance: Lessons from Korea

Drawing from the resource-based view, we investigate how firm and country combinations affect international SME performance. Using a sample of 2676 international Korean SMEs, we explore the relationships among SME R&D investment, home region orientation and financial performance. Results show that R&D investment has a horizontally inverted S-shaped relationship with performance reflecting cost leadership, stuck in the middle, and differentiation strategies. We also find that a home region orientation moderates the relationship between R&D investment and performance. Home region orientation positively moderates the relationship when R&D investment reflects cost leadership or differentiation but negatively moderates a stuck in the middle strategy.     

组织派系中的“小世界”对知识扩散的影响研究评述

企业及学校中的"团队"建设和"团队"教学无不体现着小世界模型对于组织派系内创新知识的传播和培训效果的迁移的指导作用.本文介绍了小世界社会网络模型的基本特征和理论来源,以及它在实际工作和教学学习中的运用,并在最后提出了该模型进一步发展的趋势.     

Efficiency and effectiveness of knowledge management systems in SMEs

This paper proposes a 3D fuzzy logic methodology to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of knowledge management systems (KMSs) adopted by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and identifies a classification bringing together the behaviour of SMEs when adopting KMSs. The proposed methodology was previously tested on an individual SME and then implemented on a sample of SMEs. The results highlight that there is an ample variety of behaviours related to the nature of knowledge and the KMSs used. Specifically, four typologies of behaviour are identified: the efficient and effective SME, the effective but inefficient SME, the efficient but ineffective SME, and the inefficient and ineffective SME. The results show that only 18% of surveyed SMEs are efficient and effective for both KM-Tools and KM-Practices, the remaining 82% are inefficient or ineffective for KM-Tools and/or KM-Practices. Lastly, the paper shows how this methodology may be used by an SME as a managerial tool to suggest appropriate changes to improve the efficient and effective adoption of KMSs supporting SMEs in the knowledge management processes.     

科技型中小企业发展的融资匹配研究

本文在对科技型中小企业发展的融资现状调研分析的基础上,对其各发展阶段的融资匹配进行了深入研究,勾勒出科技中小企业生命周期与银行贷款融资区域匹配图示和整体金融支持区域,以展示充分发挥金融支持科技产业发展的主导作用。