“新金融”发展态势及上海的鼓励政策研究

中国式"新金融"规模不断扩大,对中国经济发展和宏观调控产生了重要影响。它在一定程度上使得经济增长与实体经济背离,也未能完全解决中小企业融资难问题。当前政策的出发点,不应仅出于控制金融风险而对"新金融"加以限制,更多的还是应考虑如何加大力度引导资金流向中小企业等实体经济。上海"新金融"政策定位,应借助"新金融"体系,引导社会资金流向实体经济,并以金融支持科技创新和产业升级转型为重点,以活跃和繁荣金融机构和中介服务体系为抓手,构建上海"新金融"鼓励政策。     

中、日、韩中小企业发展促进体系比较

中小企业是国民经济中最具活力的组成部分,日本和韩国作为亚洲中小企业发展较早的国家,在其政策措施、技术创新、融资担保、培训咨询、社会化服务体系方面都有独到之处;而我国中小企业的发展需要有高强度的政府政策来扶持,完善的政策法规和多样的融资政策为支撑,以产业集群为载体,搭建技术创新服务平台,扶持和巩固现有的中小企业培训机构,建立全方位的社会化服务体系。     

A Bayesian approach to non-parametric monotone function estimation

Summary.  The paper proposes two Bayesian approaches to non-parametric monotone function estimation. The first approach uses a hierarchical Bayes framework and a characterization of smooth monotone functions given by Ramsay that allows unconstrained estimation. The second approach uses a Bayesian regression spline model of Smith and Kohn with a mixture distribution of constrained normal distributions as the prior for the regression coefficients to ensure the monotonicity of the resulting function estimate. The small sample properties of the two function estimators across a range of functions are provided via simulation and compared with existing methods. Asymptotic results are also given that show that Bayesian methods provide consistent function estimators for a large class of smooth functions. An example is provided involving economic demand functions that illustrates the application of the constrained regression spline estimator in the context of a multiple-regression model where two functions are constrained to be monotone.     

高云览《小城春秋》的创作艺术

《小城春秋》的艺术经验就是：把真实生活作为文学素材,在广泛借鉴的基础上进行创造,主动寻求批评,容纳各种意见,慎重取舍,化史入诗达到艺术精品。高云览的创作实践启示我们：正确处理生活与艺术的关系、继承与创造的关系、表达与修改的关系、创作与批评的关系。     

Smooth goodness of fit tests for the weibull distribution with singly censored data

The smooth goodness of fit tests are generalized to singly censored data and applied to the problem of testing Weibull (or extreme value) fit. Smooth tests, Pearson-type tests, and the spacings tests proposed by Mann, Schemer, and Fertig (1973) are compared on the basis of local asymptotic relative efficiency with respect to the asymptotic best test against generalized gamma alternatives, The smooth test of order one Is found to be most efficient for the generalized gamma alternatives.     

Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain:

Two diseases, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, are responsible for a majority of the chronic musculoskeletal pain that older women experience. Osteoporosis is the metabolic bone disease most common in older women and is responsible for fractures, kyphosis, and chronic pain. Osteoarthritis, the most commonly diagnosed musculoskeletal problem in older women, causes degeneration of the weight-bearing joints in the body, resulting in limited function and chronic pain. In this paper, these and other common disorders are briefly described and typical coping strategies used by older women in pain are reviewed. In addition, potential multidisciplinary treatment regimens are discussed.     

小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动问题研究

小城镇发展与财政建设是一种动态的、相互作用、相互制约的循环关系。目前我国东西部不发达地区普遍存在着小城镇财权与事权不对称、财政性资金管理混乱、财政收支结构不合理、财政负债严重等影响小城镇发展的典型问题,从根本上抑制着小城镇财政建设和可持续发展之间的良性互动作用的充分发挥。文章从小城镇经济发展水平、财政管理体制和行政管理体制三方面深入分析原因,指出小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动的症结之所在,提出促进小城镇发展与财政建设良性互动的改革方案。     

Kumulation von Mikrodaten – Konzeptionelle Grundlagen und ein Vorschlag zur Realisierung

Zusammenfassung: In dieser Studie wird ein Konzept zur Kumulation von laufenden Haushaltsbudgetbefragungen im Rahmen des Projektes Amtliche Statistik und sozioökonomische Fragestellungen entwickelt und zur Diskussion gestellt. Dafür werden die theoretischen Grundlagen und Bausteine gelegt und die zentrale Aufgabe einer strukturellen demographischen Gewichtung mit einem Hochrechnungs–/Kalibrierungsansatz auf informationstheoretischer Basis gelöst.Vor dem Hintergrund der Wirtschaftsrechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes (Lfd. Wirtschaftsrechnungen und EVS) wird darauf aufbauend ein konkretes Konzept für die Kumulation von jährlichen Haushaltsbudgetbefragungen vorgeschlagen. Damit kann das Ziel einer Kumulation von Querschnitten mit einer umfassenderen Kumulationsstichprobe für tief gegliederte Analysen erreicht werden. Folgen sollen die Simulationsrechnungen zur Evaluation des Konzepts.

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Summary: In this study a concept for cumulating periodic household surveys within the frame of the project Official Statistics and Socio–Economic Questions is developed and asks for discussion. We develop the theoretical background and solve the central task of a structural demographic weighting/calibration based on an information theoretical approach.Based on the household budget surveys of the Federal Statistical Office (Periodic Household Budget Surveys and Income and Consumption Sample (EVS)) a practical concept is proposed to cumulate yearly household surveys. This allows a cumulation of cross–sections by a comprehensive cumulated sample for deeply structured analyses. In a following study this concept shall be evaluated.

     

Small area estimation for longitudinal surveys

Over the last few years many studies have been carried out in Italy to identify reliable small area labour force indicators. Considering the rotated sample design of the Italian Labour Force Survey, the aim of this work is to derive a small area estimator which borrows strength from individual temporal correlation, as well as from related areas. Two small area estimators are derived as extensions of an estimation strategies proposed by Fuller (1990) for partial overlap samples. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the gain in efficiency provided by our solutions. Results obtained for different levels of autocorrelation between repeated measurements on the same outcome and different population settings show that these estimators are always more reliable than the traditional composite one, and in some circumstances they are extremely advantageous.The present paper is financially supported by Murst-Cofin (2001) Lutilizzo di informazioni di tipo amministrativo nella stima per piccole aree e per sottoinsiemi della popolazione (National Coordinator Prof. Carlo Filippucci).     

Optimal use of two auxiliary variables in double sampling

Double sampling scheme is used when cheap auxiliary variables may be measured to improve the estimation of a finite population parameter. Several estimators for population mean, ratio of means and variance are available, when two dependent samples are drawn. However, there are few proposals for the case of independent samples. In this paper both cases of dependent and independent samples are dealt with. A general approach for estimating a finite population parameter is given, showing that all the proposed estimators are particular cases of the same general class. The minimum variance bound for any estimator in this class is provided (at the first order of approximation). Furthermore, an optimal estimator which reaches this minimum is found.