Size and duration of empires growth-decline curves, 3000 to 600 b.c.

Area changes of about 30 best known empires and states are compiled and tabulated. Superimposed and juxtaposed graphs (size versus time) help to visualize the relative size and location in time of these empires. Size-time integral, maximum stable size, adulthood date, and duration are defined operationally and are listed for 20 empires. A criterion is given for distinctness of successive empires. The size-time integral is a direct measure of an empire's impact on history insofar as that impact depends on sheer size and duration. The integral is largest for the Chinese Hsia-Shang, Egyptian New, Old, and Middle, Assyrian New, and Hittite empires. A world-wide territorial concentration index is tabulated. It increases during the period considered from 0.08 to 1.4% of the world dry land area.     

Estimating chance reproducibility in Guttman Scaling

A definition of reproducibility in Guttman Scaling and two chance measures of reproducibility are suggested. The first measure assumes that the items are independent. The second method assumes nonindependent items and fits respondent and item margins by an iterative method used in fitting log-linear models. Chance reproducibility is conceptualized in terms of assumptions about respondent variability.     

Assessing the devolution revolution: How accurate are state-level estimates from the current population survey

The devolution of many social policy responsibilities from the Federal government to states has prompted increased interest in state-level measures of need. One data source that could be used to provide more state-level information on a variety of topics is the Current Population Survey (CPS). During the past ten years the CPS has been used to produce state-level estimates on a variety of measures. However, there has been little systematic evaluation of these data. This paper provides measures of accuracy for several state-level estimates derived from the CPS. These include standard errors for single-year estimates, three-year averages, and five-year averages of the March CPS measures; standard errors for three-year averages of 12-month CPS files; and comparison of CPS-based estimates to data from the Decennial Census. The paper also examines the relative accuracy of CPS estimates based on states' size. The information in this study will help analysts better understand the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy to be considered when using state-level estimates derived from the CPS.     

城市居民理想养老居住方式的选择--基于南京等四城市抽样调查的实证研究

本文基于一项在扬州、南京、镇江、泰州四城市进行的老年生活状况调查,描述了这四城市居民理想养老居住方式的选择情况,并且利用Logistic回归分析方法试图研究影响居民理想养老居住方式选择意愿的主要因素。得出的基本结论是:人们在年老时,其理想的居住方式受多方面因素的影响和制约,但基本上可以归结为三个方面:观念因素、经济因素和体制因素。其中观念因素主要体现在文化程度变量上,是影响居民选择意愿的最主要因素。经济因素和体制因素体现在个人月收入和职业变量上,体制因素比经济因素在影响居民的选择意愿方面起到更加重要的作用。     

外来人口与吴江发展

通过对吴江市外来人口的现状及其在吴江社会经济发展中的地位和作用的考察,分析外来人口对吴江可持续发展的影响程度,指出目前吴江流动人口管理和服务中的薄弱环节,并在如何适度调控外来人口、加强人口规划、增强外来人口的服务和管理、减少管理环节、创新社区化管理服务等方面,提出一些建议.     

流动人口的居住状态与社会融合

以中国城市流动人口社区研究的调查数据为依据,对流动人口的居住特点进行分析,并从社会学角度对流动人口与城市居民之间存在的居住差异与居住隔离状况进行解读,指出这种差异和隔离是造成流动人口城市融入困难的重要原因,需采取改革二元户籍制度、将流动人口纳入城镇住房保障体系、实现混合居住等措施解决流动人口的住房问题,促进他们与城市居民的社会融合.     

企业家社会网络资本的作用分析

社会网络理论是当今社会学领域中的热点问题之一,中国社会的特性决定了中国企业家的社会网络资源在其企业的运行中具有独特的作用。企业家的社会网络资源包括制度性资源、市场性资源、智能性资源、经验性资源。这些资源可以帮助企业家获得经济发展的重要资源支持,从而获得相对信息优势、利于企业技术创新,降低风险、节省交易费用。     

论社会进步及其评价尺度

马克思的唯物史观告诉我们,社会进步是人类社会发展的必然趋势,但是,由于社会发展过程的复杂性,对于具体的历史事件作用,就存在着评价问题。社会进步的评价尺度其实就蕴含在社会进步的内涵当中。由于社会进步可以归结为生产力水平的提高与人的自由与解放,这两项内容就应当成为社会进步的衡量标准。生产力水平的提高与人的自由与解放的统一也就是马克思主义的历史尺度与价值尺度的统一,这是马克思主义在社会进步评价问题上的重要原则。     

从"冲突论"到"和谐论"——马克思社会研究范式的转换

马克思社会理论蕴含着冲突与和谐、对抗与合作的对立与统一。理论本身的多面性和历史实践的不同需要,使人们将马克思社会理论的不同方面分别提到了首位。当前,实现研究范式的转换,凸显马克思和谐社会思想,有利于推进马克思主义研究的创新,阐扬和彰显马克思主义的当代性,更好地指导中国的现代化建设,对于构建社会主义和谐社会,具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

严复社会发展观要义及其当代启示

严复的社会发展思想包括:"新民"是社会发展之基石;"合群"是社会发展之前提;"开国"是社会发展之途径;"渐进"是社会发展之秩序等内容。其特点有:基于时物种进化的觉悟,因而是历史经验的智慧化;对事物发展中各种关系(新旧关系、内外关系、多少关系)的深切而辩证的把握,因而是理论思考的结晶;对西方社会发展状况和中国社会实践状况的双重检讨,因而它也是一种具有深刻意蕴的实践理性。故其于和谐社会的建构具有重要启示意义。