基于Logit模型的区域集镇系统需求分析及规模确定研究

集镇迁建并非简单的将集镇按照原规模从一个地方搬到另一个地方,集镇迁建规模的大小．应该根据迁入区的实际需求（需求规模）来确定,需求的大小主要取决于村民对集镇的选择行为,即越多的人选择到某个集镇进行活动,该集镇的需求规模越大,反之越小。影响集镇需求的因素很多,包括交通时间、交通费用、集镇服务种类、服务质量等,本文将其概括为广义费用和集镇效用（服务能力）,建立反映村民选择行为的Logit模型分析集镇需求情况,并将其应用于区域集镇系统布局优化中,以我国西部某地为例进行实证分析,反映搬迁前后一定区域内各榘镇需求规模的变化,同时计算出新集镇的需求规模,为集镇迁建规模的确定及其布局优化提供科学的参考。     

高职院校学生的生育道德观现状与实证研究

研究分别以分层丛集式问卷与子女价值量表对24岁以下的高职学生进行生育道德观的实证分析,旨在探讨生育道德观与未来希望生育子女数及生育挟择的整体关系。结果发现：高职学生以“权力成就”、“亲密情感”、“家庭愉悦”为最主要的认同层面;生育道德观因性剐、交友情况、父母教育程度等成长经验的不同而有所差异;生育道德观中“生育价值”、“生育代价”、“生育挟择”因素对未来希望生育子女数有一定程度的预测力。     

A new family of multivariate slash distributions

In this article, a new form of multivariate slash distribution is introduced and some statistical properties are derived. In order to illustrate the advantage of this distribution over the existing generalized multivariate slash distribution in the literature, it is applied to a real data set.     

Racial/Ethnic Patterns of Kindergarten School Enrollment in the United States

Enrollment into unequal schools at the start of formal education is an important mechanism for the reproduction of racial/ethnic educational inequalities. We examine whether there are racial/ethnic differences in school enrollment options at kindergarten, the start of schooling. We use nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study‐Birth Cohort (ECLS‐B) to model whether parents seek information about their child's school before enrolling, whether parents move to a location so that a child can attend a certain school, or whether parents enroll their child in a school other than the assigned public school. Results indicate that enrollment patterns differ greatly across race/ethnicity. Whereas Black families are the most likely to seek information on a school's performance, White families are the most likely to use the elite option of choosing their residential location to access a particular school. These differences persist when controlling for socioeconomic status and sociogeographic location. Kindergarten enrollment patterns preserve the advantages of White families, perpetuating racial/ethnic disparities through multiple institutions and contributing to intergenerational processes of social stratification. Research should continue to examine specific educational consequences of housing inequities and residential segregation.     

Influential factors in the choice of public transportation or cars as the mode of transportation in habitual commutes / Factores que influyen en la elección del transporte público o el automóvil como modo de transporte en los desplazamientos habituales

The goal of this study is to analyse the differences in attitudes towards habitual modes of transportation among users of public and private transportation. The explanatory capacity of attitudes when determining the mode choice, along with the structural and sociodemographic factors, are also verified. The study was performed in three Spanish cities with 742 participants. The results revealed that cars are better rated than public modes of transportation in the attributes associated with immediate advantages (i.e., speed and availability) and convenience. Subways are highly rated in both immediate and deferred advantages (environment, safety, cost and health). Buses are the mode rated the lowest of the three. Using logistic regression, it was verified that the variance explained by a model that includes attitudes (R² = .639) is higher than the variance explained by a model based solely on variables related to infrastructures (R² = .489). The discussion of these results includes proposals aimed at decreasing car use.     

Disaster response on September 11, 2001 through the lens of statistical network analysis

The rescue and relief operations triggered by the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City demanded collaboration among hundreds of organisations. To shed light on the response to the September 11, 2001 attacks and help to plan and prepare the response to future disasters, we study the inter-organisational network that emerged in response to the attacks. Studying the inter-organisational network can help to shed light on (1) whether some organisations dominated the inter-organisational network and facilitated communication and coordination of the disaster response; (2) whether the dominating organisations were supposed to coordinate disaster response or emerged as coordinators in the wake of the disaster; and (3) the degree of network redundancy and sensitivity of the inter-organisational network to disturbances following the initial disaster. We introduce a Bayesian framework which can answer the substantive questions of interest while being as simple and parsimonious as possible. The framework allows organisations to have varying propensities to collaborate, while taking covariates into account, and allows to assess whether the inter-organisational network had network redundancy—in the form of transitivity—by using a test which may be regarded as a Bayesian score test. We discuss implications in terms of disaster management.     

基于“过程-互动-行动”的城市贫困问题分析

随着中国市场化、城市化进程的加快,城市贫困问题越发严重。基于社会学家胡格伟尔特(A.Hoogvelt)的"过程—互动—行动"分析框架,分析了现阶段我国城市贫困问题的新特点及成因,指出贫困问题的加重,一是源于对社会群体福利最大化这一社会目标的偏离,民众,特别是弱势民众没有充分享受到中国宏观经济增长的长处,"宏观上欣欣向荣、微观上民不聊生";二是民主制度的缺失致使弱势群体话语权缺失,没有一个可循的制度安排供城市贫民来表达权益;三是政策实施过程中的政府失灵。对此,文章提出破解城市贫困的制度选择。     

马克思主义学习型政党建设研究综述

党的十七届四中全会以来,学术界开启了关于建设马克思主义学习型政党的研究热潮。学术界关于建设马克思主义学习型政党的研究,主要集中在对马克思主义学习型政党的科学内涵、时代意义、基本特征、基本经验、实现路径等方面。对这些研究情况进行梳理,有助于为建设马克思主义学习型政党提供借鉴。     

我国公共政策执行手段的选择、确定问题及改进

在政策执行过程中,有效的政策执行手段对政策目标的顺利实现意义重大。通常使用的政策执行手段有五种,政策执行手段具有某些作用特性。选择、确定合适的政策手段,必须遵循一定的标准和原则。我国公共政策执行手段选择、确定方面存在着一些问题,需要加以改进。     

医学生择业过程中的心理状况与职业生涯规划

随着大学毕业生人数的激增以及用人单位对于专业化程度要求的提高,就业形势变得日益严峻。同时,由于地区间经济发展的不平衡,人才往城市倾斜现象较为严重,由此出现城市与乡镇医院人才供求比例严重失衡。伴随社会问题出现的是医学生对于职业生涯规划的定位不准确而产生的各种心理问题,这些心理上的困境正严重地威胁着医学生职业前途。本文通过对医学生择业困境中的心理状态进行溯源与探讨,并结合我国目前医学生群体的就业状况,论述医学生择业过程中存在的心理问题,提出有针对性的解决方案与符合医学生群体特征的职业生涯规划,以期能为医学生群体带来一定的帮助。