思考与回应:中国工业化道路的抉择(下)

现代经济增长和早期经济增长的区别在于,经济增长主要已经不是靠资本积累,而是靠效率提高实现,这种增长模式体现出“新型工业化道路”的特征。中国片面追求经济结构的重型化,已经造成国民经济整体效率的下降、技术创新的滞后、服务业发展的缓慢、生态环境的破坏、就业难度的增加以及金融风险的隐患。因此,中国必须采取注重效率的增长模式,走新型的工业化道路,这就需要转变思维定势,建立一个有利于技术进步和效率提高的体制,加快服务业发展,用信息化带动工业化。文章针对一些学者关于“中国已进入重化工业阶段,且这个阶段是不可逾越的”等等质疑,逐个作出了回答。     

A Microeconometric Test of Alternative Stochastic Theories of Risky Choice

The random preference, Fechner (or white noise), and constant error (or tremble) models of stochastic choice under risk are compared. Various combinations of these approaches are used with expected utility and rank-dependent theory. The resulting models are estimated in a random effects framework using experimental data from two samples of 46 subjects who each faced 90 pairwise choice problems. The best fitting model uses the random preference approach with a tremble mechanism, in conjunction with rank-dependent theory. As subjects gain experience, trembles become less frequent and there is less deviation from behaviour consistent with expected utility theory.     

中国企业技术创新问题探讨

许多中国企业在迎接新经济挑战中陷入"不搞技术创新等死,搞技术创新找死"的怪圈.企业技术创新跳出这个怪圈的路径应从宏观管理角度建立国家创新体系,营造有利于技术创新的法律、法规和政策环境,建立有效的风险投资制度模式;从微观管理角度讲,应从管理方式创新、构建技术创新开发模式两大方面入手,努力塑造企业技术创新的微观体系.     

资产证券化趋势与我们的选择

资产证券化是近 30年来金融领域的重大创新之一。由于其具有创新的融资结构和高效的载体 ,满足了各类融资者和投资者不断变化的需求 ,从而成为当今世界各国资本市场发展最快、最具活力的金融产品。资产证券化产生的动因是活化抵押贷款二级市场 ,随创新的深化 ,人们将其发展成为沟通传统的直接融资和间接融资的一个有效通道。资产证券化起源于美国 ,现在已形成一种资本市场创新趋势。改革开放以来 ,持续快速发展的中国经济对资本一直有着旺盛的需求 ,因此 ,目前在我国推行证券化融资工具正当其时。     

Greater Downside Risk Aversion

Although investors are concerned foremost with mean and variance, they are also sensitive to downside risk. In this paper, we introduce an index of downside risk aversion to distinguish risk aversion from higher-order aspects of risk preference, including prudence. We show that the index of downside risk aversion S increases with monotonic downside risk averse transformations of utility, thereby directly linking S to the definition of downside risk aversion introduced by Menezes et al. (American Economic Review, 70, 921–932, 1980). Although the index S applies equally to risk averse and risk loving decision makers, for a given positive degree of risk aversion, S is greater when the index of prudence is greater and vice versa.     

政体理论如何支撑立宪选择--基于麦迪逊与亚里士多德的虚拟对话

立宪选择是人类根本性的政治选择,它需要来自政体理论的支持。问题是,政体理论如何支撑立宪选择?针对这一问题,基于麦迪逊与亚里士多德的虚拟对话,我们给出的回答是,政治科学的政体理论为立宪选择提供知识依据、价值引导和操作指南,从知识、价值、操作三个维度支撑了人类的立宪选择。     

一种新的彩色图像边缘检测算法

自动阀值选取是彩色图像边缘检测的难点和关键问题,首先从人类的视觉特性出发,分析了人类视觉系统的亮度感知门限函数,利用数学建模方法和色度学方面的研究成果,给出人类视觉系统对彩色图像边缘所能识别的最小彩色差函数。利用小波边缘检测原理,给出一种能根据不同彩色背景自动选取阀值的小波边缘检测算法. 仿真实验证明算法有较好的自适应性和良好的边缘识别性能。     

Reflections on rational choice—The existence of systematic irrationality

The behavioral challenge to the rational choice paradigm is oriented toward individual decision-making. Behavioral irrationality does not mean chaos. Most irrational behavior involves the exercise of reasoning. In reality, decision makers do not behave with full knowledge and/or optimal computational power in pursuit of maximizing expected utility. Besides reviewing critiques to the rationality paradigm for judgments and preferences and exploring the impact of culture on people's economic behavior, this paper is the first to call the attention of researchers to the phenomenon of systemic irrationality. Irrationality may exist at the aggregate or societal level, a conclusion based on the observation that large segments of the population are incapable of making decisions in accord with traditional rationality—groups such as those who have a psychiatric disorder, those who are taking medications, those with limited intelligence, those from the lower social classes, children and adolescents, and the elderly. Even those who are not included in the aforementioned groups, but who take medications for medical conditions may have their decision-making impaired to some extent. Therefore, it is argued that rationality in economic decision-making may be the exception rather than the norm.     

新农村建设是新的发展方式的选择

我国“三农”问题缘于长期的小生产方式。社会主义新农村建设是我国现代化建设中重大历史任务。新农村建设是全面建设，但最根本的是新发展方式的选择，农业产业化和农业现代化乃是重中之重。     

On the Selection of Distributions for Stochastic Variables

One of the main steps in an uncertainty analysis is the selection of appropriate probability distribution functions for all stochastic variables. In this paper, criteria for such selections are reviewed, the most important among them being any a priori knowledge about the nature of a stochastic variable, and the Central Limit Theorem of probability theory applied to sums and products of stochastic variables. In applications of these criteria, it is shown that many of the popular selections, such as the uniform distribution for a poorly known variable, require far more knowledge than is actually available. However, the knowledge available is usually sufficient to make use of other, more appropriate distributions. Next, functions of stochastic variables and the selection of probability distributions for their arguments as well as the use of different methods of error propagation through these functions are discussed. From these evaluations, priorities can be assigned to determine which of the stochastic variables in a function need the most care in selecting the type of distribution and its parameters. Finally, a method is proposed to assist in the assignment of an appropriate distribution which is commensurate with the total information on a particular stochastic variable, and is based on the scientific method. Two examples are given to elucidate the method for cases of little or almost no information.