创新系统运行中的选择

社会生活的多样化给各种选择提供了一定的合理性 ,社会生活并不要求唯一的选择 ,它给创新主体提供了多种可能性 ,增加了创新主体选择的自由度。创新主体必须在一定的环境和条件下才能从事创新活动。创新主体的选择环境就是主体选择的外部条件。在创新的选择中 ,创新主体既是自由的 ,又是不自由的 ,从社会整体的角度看创新主体的选择是不自由的 ,创新主体的选择要受到各种社会因素的制约 ,从个体的角度看 ,创新主体的选择又是自由的 ,创新主体可以按照自己的意愿进行选择。创新主体在客观条件容许的范围内可以获得选择的自由 ,创新主体选择能力的提高 ,随着人们对客观现实条件的认识而提高。创新主体的选择能力也是创新活动自由度的一个表征 ,创新主体的选择能力越强 ,创新活动的自由度也就越高 ,对客观现实的支配能力也就越强     

政府与铁路客运市场的关系

目前铁路客运市场价格机制和运行机制是扭曲的 ,但这种扭曲又是必要的 ,合理的。铁路客运市场的改革不能只着眼于市场本身 ,而要从整个国民经济配套改革的角度来看。政府应从总体社会经济效益最大化的原则出发 ,决定铁路企业市场化改革在经济体制改革序列中的时间表。     

浅析人民币汇率在国际压力下面临的选择

改革开放以后 ,中国的经济突飞猛进 ,然而一些西方发达国家却针对中国抛出了所谓“中国威胁论” ,并要求中国政府重新评定人民币价值 ,实现人民币汇率的上浮。面对国际压力 ,中国政府需要沉着应对。     

Adult Daughters as Parental Caregivers: Rational Actors Versus Rational Agents

Using logistic regression analyses on a sub-sample (n = 611) of the National Longitudinal Survey, Young Women's Cohort, the study found that inheritance-related factors added no explanatory power to other factors influencing the likelihood of adult daughters providing personal care or doing household chores for their aging parents, suggesting the motivational primacy of adherence to social norms. The study also found that inheritance-related factors increased the likelihood of providing financial assistance beyond that of other factors, suggesting the primacy of self-interest when money transactions are concerned. This is an important study because it offers insights into developing and implementing public and private incentives and policies to ensure an adequate supply of informal caregivers as baby boomers enter their twilight years.     

Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility processes

Summary.  We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology for Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility processes. The approach introduced involves expressing the unobserved stochastic volatility process in terms of a suitable marked Poisson process. We introduce two specific classes of Metropolis–Hastings algorithms which correspond to different ways of jointly parameterizing the marked point process and the model parameters. The performance of the methods is investigated for different types of simulated data. The approach is extended to consider the case where the volatility process is expressed as a superposition of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. We apply our methodology to the US dollar–Deutschmark exchange rate.     

Identification of non-linear additive autoregressive models

Summary.  We propose a lag selection method for non-linear additive autoregressive models that is based on spline estimation and the Bayes information criterion. The additive structure of the autoregression function is used to overcome the 'curse of dimensionality', whereas the spline estimators effectively take into account such a structure in estimation. A stepwise procedure is suggested to implement the method proposed. A comprehensive Monte Carlo study demonstrates good performance of the method proposed and a substantial computational advantage over existing local-polynomial-based methods. Consistency of the lag selection method based on the Bayes information criterion is established under the assumption that the observations are from a stochastic process that is strictly stationary and strongly mixing, which provides the first theoretical result of this kind for spline smoothing of weakly dependent data.     

On intra-class correlation coefficient estimation

Consider the problem of estimating the intra-class correlation coefficient of a symmetric normal distribution. In a recent article (Pal and Lim (1999)) it has been shown that the three popular estimators, namely—the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), the method of moments estimator (MME) and the unique minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE), are second order admissible under the squared error loss function. In this paper we study the performance of the above mentioned estimators in terms of Pitman Nearness Criterion (PNC) as well as Stochastic Domination Criterion (SDC). We then apply the aforementioned estimators to two real life data sets with moderate to large sample sizes, and bootstrap bias as well as mean squared errors are computed to compare the estimators. In terms of overall performance the MME seems most appealing among the three estimators considered here and this is the main contribution of our paper. Formerly University of Southewestern Louisisna     

财务比率在股票选择中的作用

利用财务报表中的盈利性比率和保值增值率,结合定性和定量分析方法对财务报表进行了研究。此理论首先从定性分析出发,然后再利用模糊数学这一手段对这些比率进行定量化研究,将财务比率和财务比率的稳定性转化成为股票选择的可能程度值。此理论克服了现存理论的某些缺陷,为机构投资者利用财务比率选择股票提供了理论依据。     

机床主轴的选材及热处理工艺

提出机床主轴选材应遵循的基本原则 ,介绍机床主轴用材和相应的热处理工艺 ,以及机床主轴用材和工艺技术的发展概况