“龙虎榜”事件与陆贽仕宦生涯的政治选择

"龙虎榜"事件之前的陆贽经历了一个由得宠到失宠的过程,事件之后又经历了一个由得宠到失宠的过程。陆贽以其文才被擢用,因精于吏治而得宠,而他的失宠则缘于他的儒者精神。唐德宗与陆贽在经历了丧乱之后,都发生了心态上的变化。由翰林学士到当朝宰相,政治身份的变化使得君臣关系也发生了质的改变,"龙虎榜"事件就是其中一个关键的转折点。     

The Use of Base Rate Information as a Function of Experienced Consistency

Three experiments examine the effect of base rate consistency under direct experience. Base rate consistency was manipulated by blocking trials and setting base rate choice reinforcement to be either consistent or inconsistent across trial blocks. Experiment 1 shows that, contrary to the usual finding, participants use base rate information more than individuating information when it is consistent, but less when it is inconsistent. In Experiment 2, this effect was replicated, and transferred in verbal questions posed subsequently. Despite experience with consistent base rates increasing sensitivity to base rates in word problems, verbal responses were far from normative. In Experiment 3, participants’ use of base rates was once again moderated by its consistency, but this effect was itself moderated by the diagnosticity of base rate information. Participants were highly accurate in estimating experienced base rates. These studies demonstrate that base rate usage is complex and a function of how base rates are presented (experienced versus summary statistics) and response format (choice proportions versus probability estimates). Knowledge of base rates was insufficient for proper usage in verbal word problems. Although choice proportions showed a sophisticated sensitivity to experienced base rate information, participants seemed unable to demonstrate a similar sophistication when given typical word problems indicating that base rate neglect is a function of information representation and not an inherent processing bias.     

A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting

We conduct an experiment to investigate the degree to which deviations from exponential discounting can be accounted for by the hypothesis of hyperbolic discounting. Subjects are asked to choose between an earlier or later payoff in a series of 40 choice questions. Each question consists of a pair of monetary amounts determined by compounding a given base amount at a constant rate per period. Two bases (8 and 20 dollars), three compounding rates (low, medium and high) and three delays (2, 4, and 6 weeks) are each used. There are also 2 initial periods (Today and 2 weeks) and there are two separate questionnaires, one with lower “realistic” compounding rates and the other with higher compounding rates, typical of those used in previous studies. We analyze the detailed patterns of choice in 6 groups of 6 related questions each (in which the base and rate is fixed but the initial period and delay varies), documenting the frequency of patterns consistent with exponential discounting and with hyperbolic discounting. We find that exponential discounting is the clear modal choice pattern in virtually all cases. Hyperbolic discounting is never the modal pattern (except in the sense that constant discounting is a special case of hyperbolic discounting). We also estimate a linear probability model that takes account of individual heterogeneity. The estimates show substantial increases in the probability of choosing the later option when the compounding rate increases, as one would expect. There are small, sometimes significant, increases in this probability when the delay is increased or the initial period is in the future. Such behavior is consistent with hyperbolic discounting, but can account for only a small proportion of choices. Overall, deviations from exponential discounting appear to be due to error, or to other effects not accounted for by hyperbolic discounting. Principal among these is an increase in later choices when the base is larger.     

航空联盟影响因素的实证研究

探讨了航空公司加入航空联盟的影响因素问题,研究发现:旅客运输量大的航空公司更可能加入联盟,并且对联盟的生存是必不可少;机队规模大的航空公司加入联盟后可以消化机队扩张的压力;随着航空联盟市场份额的增长,航空联盟对航空公司来说越来越具有吸引力;竞争对手是否参与联盟对航空公司加入联盟有一个正向的影响。另外,航空公司在不同的航空联盟之间进行选择的影响程度是相似的,这表明航空公司的主要决策不是要选择一个特定的联盟,而是考虑是否加入联盟,作为一个可持续发展的战略选择。     

Choosing Family: Meaning and Membership in the Lesbian Family of Choice

SUMMARY

This conceptual/theoretical article uses the psychodynamic Self Psychology model for the development of a vital, harmonious, and cohesive self to describe and understand the psychological importance of family for lesbian women. How can a healthy lesbian self be developed, nurtured, and maintained in an oppressive sexist and homophobic world? Family relationships are shown to fulfill the three fundamental psychological functions that sustain the lesbian self. In the absence of genetic and/or legal criteria, the basis on which someone is considered “family” is explored.     

The Privatization of Social Services from Public to Sectarian

ABSTRACT

This article explores the privatization of social services from public to sectarian points of view while examining the implications of the Charitable Choice movement on the gay and lesbian community. The history of this movement is explored from a developmental perspective outlining the socioeconomic makeup of gays and lesbians, the societal perceptions and mythology of the economic status of homosexuals, and actual figures related to the number of gays and lesbians who rely on publicly supported social service providers. The article explores the history as well as the positive and negative aspects this type of privatization movement involves. Finally, a comprehensive assessment of the effects of this movement on the gay and lesbian community is presented and future recommendations will be made.     

Beyond Pensions: A Radical Systems-Based Transformation of Present-Future Choice

Aging populations worldwide, fiscal deficits, growing sovereign debt, and slowing economies have combined to create and exacerbate what is widely known as the “pension crisis”, characterized by poverty among the elderly substantially due to inadequate retirement income. We argue that the roots of the crisis go much deeper than “pensions”, and involve a long-term secular shift from saving and capital formation to consumption, in the West. Cosmetic “solutions” to the pension crisis, such as delaying the retirement age, are ineffective. The “pension crisis” label itself impedes clear thinking about developing an effective and affordable solution. The core of the problem is the fact that present-future choice tilted to “present”, in the West, for decades. Higher saving, over a longer time horizon, invested at higher average returns, is the ultimate goal, and only one that offers true long-term transformative change. We propose an original, radical, systemic solution, based on an evolutionary social transformation¹1 ‘Evolution has achieved an extraordinary record of design, yet has taken an extremely long period of time to do so’?…?‘The exponentially quickening pace of the evolution of human-created technology, which picked up the pace from the evolution of life-forms’. (Kurzweil, 1999 Kurzweil, R. 1999. The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking. [Google Scholar]) of present-future choice toward increased saving; a proposal that addresses the roots of the pension crisis, not just the symptoms.²2 This paper is based in part on a longer study, Gerstenhaber et al., 2015 Gerstenhaber, M., Maital, S. & Buchnik, T. 2015. The Carob Tree: A Radical Evolutionary Systemic Solution to the Pension Crisis. Haifa, Israel: S. Neaman Institute, Technion. [Google Scholar]; an earlier version of the pension reform proposal outlined below can be found in Passig and Gerstenhaber (2014) Passig, D. & Gerstenhaber, M. 2014. A Possible Pension-savings Paradigm for a Sustainable Future: A Developed Country Case Study (UK). Journal of Organisational Transformation & Social Change, 11(3): 207–229. doi: 10.1179/1477963314Z.00000000030[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar] and Gerstenhaber (2009) Gerstenhaber, M. 2009. Have You Ever Seen a Retired Tiger in the Jungle? Eradicating Pensioner Poverty: A Manifesto for Democratic and Responsible Capitalism. London: Ruscombe Press. [Google Scholar]. We contend that an effective pension allocation and accumulation system is a stable force for economic growth over time — but only when these significant capital investments are made directly in the real economy and take account of appropriate technological innovation. At the moment the bulk of global investment capital in the West is directed to short-term speculative activity in various financial markets, opportunistically taking advantage of historically low borrowing rates. We provide a macroeconomic simulation of our proposal, should it be adopted, comparing no-change and radical-change scenarios for the Israel economy, and urge scholars to carry out similar projections and analyses for individual OECD countries. We next show how an increase in national saving and capital formation can contribute to “rebalancing” the global economy, between low-saving Western nations and high-saving Asian ones. Finally, we outline our “four pillar” radical proposal, which leverages persistent long-run saving and investment, and illustrate its impact with some macroeconomic projections for Israel, comparing two scenarios, one with low national saving, the second with increased national saving. An achievable increase in the national saving rate, implemented through the tax system and accompanied by intelligent capital formation, can have enormous impact, it is shown, not only on elderly poverty but on society as a whole. In our plan, lower consumption demand through higher savings, is offset by higher capital formation, which has a larger employment and GDP multiplier.     

A model for the multiplex dynamics of two-mode and one-mode networks,with an application to employment preference,friendship, and advice

We propose a new stochastic actor-oriented model for the co-evolution of two-mode and one-mode networks. The model posits that activities of a set of actors, represented in the two-mode network, co-evolve with exchanges and interactions between the actors, as represented in the one-mode network. The model assumes that the actors, not the activities, have agency.     

A Dynamic Model of Welfare Reform

A dynamic structural model of labor supply, welfare participation, and food stamp participation is estimated using the 1992, 1993, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Details of various policies including welfare time limits, work requirements, and Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) are incorporated formally in the budget constraint. Policy simulations reveal that the economy accounts for half of the increase in the labor supply of female heads of family between 1992 and 1999. A time limit results in a larger efficiency gain than a work requirement or a direct reduction in welfare benefits. A reform package can lead to both a reduction in the government expenditure and an improvement in utility. The EITC expansion results in a substantial efficiency gain among individuals with the lowest expected wage. These individuals are almost unaffected by the economic expansion, but their income and utility increase significantly under the reform package.