指挥训练“纯粹型”业余合唱团的探索与思考

本文主要是以个人指挥和训练业余合唱团的亲身经历,表述了自己实践中的探索与思考,阐明了自己鲜明的观点。     

Fusing point and areal level space–time data with application to wet deposition

Summary.  Motivated by the problem of predicting chemical deposition in eastern USA at weekly, seasonal and annual scales, the paper develops a framework for joint modelling of point- and grid-referenced spatiotemporal data in this context. The hierarchical model proposed can provide accurate spatial interpolation and temporal aggregation by combining information from observed point-referenced monitoring data and gridded output from a numerical simulation model known as the 'community multi-scale air quality model'. The technique avoids the change-of-support problem which arises in other hierarchical models for data fusion settings to combine point- and grid-referenced data. The hierarchical space–time model is fitted to weekly wet sulphate and nitrate deposition data over eastern USA. The model is validated with set-aside data from a number of monitoring sites. Predictive Bayesian methods are developed and illustrated for inference on aggregated summaries such as quarterly and annual sulphate and nitrate deposition maps. The highest wet sulphate deposition occurs near major emissions sources such as fossil-fuelled power plants whereas lower values occur near background monitoring sites.     

Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure

ABSTRACT

We introduce a class of large Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) that allows for non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and serially dependent innovations. To make estimation computationally tractable, we exploit a certain Kronecker structure of the likelihood implied by this class of models. We propose a unified approach for estimating these models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In an application that involves 20 macroeconomic variables, we find that these BVARs with more flexible covariance structures outperform the standard variant with independent, homoscedastic Gaussian innovations in both in-sample model-fit and out-of-sample forecast performance.     

Nondegenerate Intervals of No-Trade Prices for Risk Averse Traders

According to the local risk-neutrality theorem an agent who has the opportunity to invest in an uncertain asset does not buy it or sell it short iff its expected value is equal to its price, independently of the agent's attitude towards risk. Contrary to that it is shown that, in the context of expected utility theory with differentiable vNM utility function, but without the assumption of stochastic constant returns to scale, nondegenerate intervals of no-trade prices may exist. With a quasiconcave expected utility function they do if, and only if, the agent is risk averse of order one.     

Bayesian inference for semiparametric regression using a Fourier representation

This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a semiparametric regression model that consists of parametric and nonparametric components. The nonparametric component is represented with a Fourier series where the Fourier coefficients are assumed a priori to have zero means and to decay to 0 in probability at either algebraic or geometric rates. The rate of decay controls the smoothness of the response function. The posterior analysis automatically selects the amount of smoothing that is coherent with the model and data. Posterior probabilities of the parametric and semiparametric models provide a method for testing the parametric model against a non-specific alternative. The Bayes estimator's mean integrated squared error compares favourably with the theoretically optimal estimator for kernel regression.     

从极向选择看文化保守主义

在世纪末回眸之际,文化保守主义为我们留下了无尽的话题:关于传统丈化,关于人文精神,关于学人风骨……,这是一般值得表述的历史,却也是一段不易表述的历史。文章以“五四”新文化运动时期几位具有代表性的文化保守主义者的人生终极选择为切入点,探讨文化保守主义者的“保守”内蕴。     

金融稳定与加速器效应的非对称性

本文在传统BGG模型的基础上,通过构建一个包含银行部门(不)稳定度的随机动态一般均衡模型(DSGE),从金融稳定的视角揭示加速器效应非对称性的微观机理及其对宏观经济的影响。结论表明:金融加速器的放大机制受到企业自身经营状况和银行机会成本的双重影响;金融不稳定因素通过预期违约损失的方式影响银行部门的机会成本,进而改变放大弹性,最终对加速器效应起到放大作用。因此,当金融部门不稳定时,金融加速器效应更为显著。     

案例教学的教育价值取向——社会本位和个人本位的融合

中西方教育发展史表明,社会本位和个人本位因其自身的合理性和局限性,使得两大教育价值取向只有在融合时,教育才能得到好的发展。案例教学作为一种新型教学方法,在教什么、怎么教上正确处理了人的主体性与社会制约性的关系,呈现了社会本位和个人本位两大教育价值取向的融合。     

创建以人为本的公共服务型政府的路径选择

建设以人为本的公共服务型政府是当前中国各级政府的发展方向,也是广大人民利益的出发点,阐述了以人为本的公共服务型政府的基本内涵,即民主、公开透明、负责任、法治、高效的政府,并从七个方面提出了创建以人为本的公共服务型政府的路径选择。     

科技英语翻译的词义选择与确定

科技英语翻译是一个复杂的创造性劳动过程.它需要译者具有扎实的科技知识、深厚的中英文语言基本功,并且能灵活运用专业知识和语言知识.文章通过对科技英语词义特征的分析,着重探讨了科技英语翻译中词义的选择与确定问题.