A New Class of Credibility Estimators Under the Generalized Weighted Premium Principle

The generalized weighted premium includes many classical premium principles. Most important of all, some of them have positive safe-loading. Some work had been done previously, the credibility premium derived under this premium principle cannot be applied to practice directly due to the difficulties of calculation and the estimation of structure parameters. In this article, we consider a new form of credibility estimator under the generalized weighted premium principle. In addition, the consistency of the estimator is shown and the comparisons were analyzed with previous results in the simulations. The results show that this “new” estimator is better than existed estimators under mean square error sense. Finally, the structure parameters in credibility factor were estimated in the models of multitude contracts.     

国际生产网络视角下的增加值贸易结构分析与主导因素识别——以中美双边贸易为例

本文利用世界投入产出表测度了2001—2014年中美双边增加值贸易结构。结果表明,中国在双边贸易中的单位出口获利能力低于美国,国际分工地位的差异使得两国的贸易结构显示出较强的互补性。在对增加值贸易构成分解的基础上,本文识别并分析了国际生产网络体系下影响出口国内增加值的主导因素及其作用机制。研究发现,网络外最终需求、生产网络上游因素分别是推动中国和美国出口国内增加值扩大的主导因素。此外,产业层面的研究结果显示,中国高技术制造业出口国内增加值的扩大主要是由生产网络上游因素驱动的,生产网络外最终需求则是中国传统制造业出口国内增加值扩张的重要推动力。中国在扩大对外开放的同时应与国际生产网络中的上下游经济体形成多元化匹配,进而加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。     

系统结构分化:中国社会分化研究的新视角

关于中国社会分化的研究目前主要集中于阶层结构分化，但忽视了系统结构分化。中国社会系统结构的分化是一个从泛政治化的单轨运行向去政治化的多轨运行转化的过程。同时两个分化维度在动力机制与作用过程、两个过程之间的相互影响以及功能关系的整合上存在紧密的关系。     

信息结构、次话题和汉语宾语的分析问题

对信息结构的新近研究作出简要述评,特别评论Mary Dalrymlpe & Irina Nikolaeva（2011）的研究。联系篇章因素,认为汉语宾语在表达焦点和话题上存在复杂情况,在汉语一般宾语位置上也存在次话题（subtopic）,并提出若干根据。汉语在信息结构和句法结构接口上存在重要限制条件。话题显著度有两个要素：定指和非定指;生命度等级。通过初步的考察,认为汉语存在一个话题显著度的无标记等级序列模式,句子中的名词性成分或体词性成分,都具有话题性或话题性潜能,在无标记的情况下,语序中话题性高的往前排,话题性低的往后排。文章还提出了跟汉语宾语有关的需要进一步探索的一系列问题。     

粒计算基本原理研究

为了保证粒计算核心理论框架内容的完整性,用以指导粒计算的研究与发展,采取质性研究方法,对粒计算研究与发展的纵向推进与横向吸纳等方面进行深入考察,在原始资料的基础之上对粒计算的基本原理进行分析、梳理与归纳,提炼出了粒计算的三条基本原理及其各自的发展逻辑。     

上市公司初始股权结构分析

上市公司发起人对初始股权结构的设计是筹资者与投资者之间的第一次也是非常重要的一次“契约安排”。在价格管制与额度发行背景下,发起人必须在发股收入最大化与持股比例最大化之间有所取舍,不能两者兼得。本文建立了指导发起人在实现自身利益最大化目标下壬响设计初始股权结构的模型,并以此模型计算结果为最优初始股权结构。对上市公司初始股权结构设计现状进行的实证研究,发现实际发起人持股比例远高于最优持股比例,并对“65％现象”进行了新的解释。     

Telecommunications Network Design—Comparison of Alternative Approaches

The design and development of the network infrastructure to support mission‐critical applications has become a critical and‐complex activity. This study explores the use of genetic algorithms (GA) for network design in the context of degree‐constrained minimal spanning tree (DCMST) problem; compares for small networks the performance of GA with a mathematical model that provides optimal solutions; and for larger networks, compares GA's performance with two heuristic methods—edge exchange and primal algorithm. Two performance measures, solution quality and computation time, are used for evaluation. The algorithms are evaluated on a wide variety of network sizes with both static and dynamic degree constraints on the network nodes. The results indicate that GA provides optimal solutions for small networks. For larger networks it provides better solution quality compared to edge exchange and primal method, but is worse than the two methods in computation time.     

资本结构、金融中介和公司治理

公司治理作为当前国有企业改革的重要措施之一,受到了人们广泛的关注。而金融中介机构的发展与成熟程度直接影响着公司的资本结构和治理结构,进而影响着公司的竞争能力。本文借鉴西方财务理论和日美公司治理方面的经验与教训对金融中介机构是否应积极参与公司治理进行了较深入的探讨,提出其积极参与公司治理的理性决策模型,同时也回答了如何来完善我国上市公司的公司治理结构的问题:重构现代金融体系,激励国有商业银行,大力发展资本市场、培育机构投资者以及修改与制定相关的法律制度,促使其积极参与公司治理。     

Sense of coherence and ill health among the unemployed and re-employed after closure of an assembly plant

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between employment status, ill health and sense of coherence(SOC). A cross-sectional sample of the former workers at the closed down Volvo Kalmar plant in Sweden was used. A questionnaire was mailed to all identified subjects 2 years after the closure of the plant. Responses were obtained from 344 persons, of whom 173 were re-employed and 92 were unemployed. They answered the questionnaire anonymously on background variables, SOC and ill health (physical and psychological symptoms). A notable difference was found between the re-employed and unemployed, where the unemployed reported symptoms significantly more often as well as a significantly weaker SOC. A main finding in a four cell model indicated that unemployment had a rather low impact on symptoms in the presence of a strong SOC. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was performed with simultaneous analysis of the unemployed and reemployed. The SEM analysis indicated that SOC seemed to have a greater impact on psychological symptoms among unemployed compared with re-employed persons. However, it should be noted that the present study does not allow for the determination of cause-effect relationships.     

党外代表人士的结构划分及其特点——关于新一代党外代表人士的成长环境与自身素质提高的思考

根据历史条件、年龄构成、成长环境和经历等方面对党外代表人士进行结构划分,并分析了他们在认识问题、思考问题的方式和角度上的差异。笔者结合所在的高校和党派实际,对新一代党外代表人士的成长环境和自身综合素质的提高进行初步探讨。