我国环境刑罚轻缓化探析

毋庸置疑,在整个国际社会对环境犯罪处以轻缓刑罚的背景下,我国亦应该对环境刑罚采用轻缓化的原则。诚然,我国的环境刑罚制度与其他国家相比还有许多亟待完善的地方,但这并不妨碍我们在借鉴其他国家先进的立法经验的基础上构建适合我国具体国情的环境刑罚制度。在环境刑罚中要突出自由刑的适用,扩大并完善财产刑的适用,明确财产刑中过于模糊的规定,逐步改善环境犯罪的刑事处罚措施过于单一的缺点和功能上的不足,同时提高对辅助刑罚措施的关注。在环境犯罪方面,在适用传统刑罚措施惩治的基础上配合适用辅助刑罚措施,使我国环境刑罚轻缓化实践不至于成为一纸空谈。     

Societal Inequality and individual subjective well-being: Results from 68 societies and over 200,000 individuals, 1981–2008

Income inequality has been contentious for millennia, a source of political conflict for centuries, and is now widely feared as a pernicious “side effect” of economic progress. But equality is only a means to an end and so must be evaluated by its consequences. The fundamental question is: What effect does a country's level of income inequality have on its citizens' quality of life, their subjective well-being? We show that in developing nations inequality is certainly not harmful but probably beneficial, increasing well-being by about 8 points out of 100. This may well be Kuznets's inverted “U”: In the earliest stages of development some are able to move out of the (poorly paying) subsistence economy into the (better paying) modern economy; their higher pay increases their well-being while simultaneously increasing inequality. In advanced nations, income inequality on average neither helps nor harms. Estimates are from random-intercept fixed-effects multi-level models, confirmed by over four dozen sensitivity tests. Data are from the pooled World Values/European Values Surveys, Waves 1 to 5 with 169 representative national samples in 68 nations, 1981 to 2009, and over 200,000 respondents, replicated and extended in the European Quality of Life Surveys.     

Testing for a change point in a sequence of exponential random variables with repeated values

Two test statistics are proposed for the change-point problem with repeated values when the data follow an exponential distribution. The properties of these two statistics have been studied and their asymptotic distributions under the alternative have been derived. The powers of the two test statistics are compared. Real-data examples are presented to illustrate the application of these tests.     

中澳合同法诚实信用原则比较研究

诚实信用原则是适用整个民事合同的基本原则，如何正确理解并在司法审判中正确适用诚实信用原则，既是一个严肃的理论问题也是一个重要的现实问题。通过介绍澳大利亚学者和法官的不同观点和澳大利亚合同法中的诚实信用规则的基本含义，然后对我国合同法中诚实信用原则的内容和要求做出总结并与澳大利亚合同法中的诚实信用规则进行比较，最后提出应借鉴澳大利亚合同法诚实信用规则的理念，将主观诚实，客观诚实和合理考虑其他当事人利益三方面内容纳入到我国的诚实信用原则之中。     

Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures

In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.     

地方高校学困生帮扶现状分析及对策

深入贯彻落实十九大精神，打赢教育战线上的脱贫攻坚战，实施帮扶确保学业困难学生顺利完成学业是每一位教育工作者义不容辞的责任。文章采取问卷调查和访谈相结合的方法对SL学院400名学业困难学生帮扶现状进行了调查，结果显示：学困生帮扶意愿强烈，倾向于向朋辈求助；学困生认为学校已经开展的帮扶很有必要，但效果有待于进一步提高；辅导员作为学校学困生帮扶的主要人员，对学生的帮扶深度不够，效果欠佳，亟待提出相应对策提升帮扶效果，帮助学困生顺利脱困。     

试论《白鹿原》中作家主观思想的渗透

思想性是文学的一个显著特征，是作家的创作实践在作品中流露出来的倾向性。即便描写或叙述一件比较小的事情，里面也渗透着作家对社会、对人生、对世界的看法，同时也包含着对某种新发现的独到理解。《白鹿原》在刻画鲜明的人物形象的同时也渗透着作家对传统文化、家族文化、婚姻文化等方面的独特见解，使人们能够深深地感受到作家的文化观、历史观、人生观。     

Measurement of the subjective work environment

Abstract

This paper considers the various issues that frame the development and use of measures of the subjective work environment. It begins by questioning the role of the work environment in determining occupational health, and explores the possible mechanisms by which that environment might exert its influence. It concludes that one of the important final common pathways is psycho-physiological in nature, and is rooted in individual perception and cognition and the experience of stress. Important for this model are the concepts of mediation and moderation. The measurement of the subjective work environment has often been idiosyncratic to the study in hand, and there are few well-established measures in common use. It is argued that researchers should be careful when deciding not to use established measures and effectively ‘invent’ their own. In developing new measures, decisions have to be made concerning the nature of the measure along with its ‘granularity’ and complexity. It is also argued that it is important that researchers should follow good psychometric practice in the development of those measures. Suggestions for ‘good practice’ are discussed. Attention is drawn to the issues of reliability and validity, and this paper discusses the role of triangulation in the planning and execution of data collection and analysis. The paper ends by reviewing the recommendations made towards the development and use of measures of the subjective work environment.     

The Detection of Influential Observations for Allocation,Separation, and the Determination of Probabilities in a Bayesian Framework

Normal theory separation and allocation problems are discussed from a predictive point of view. Influence statistics are defined and employed to ascertain the impact that particular observations will have on the inferential goals—allocation of future observations, separation between populations, and the determination of probabilities for future cases. Methods are illustrated on a collection of financial data taken from Johnson and Wichern (1982).     

元末顺帝时期“三农”问题研究

元末顺帝时期,政治腐败,＂三农＂问题突出,主要体现在农民生活困苦、农业生产落后、农村管理混乱、村社组织涣散等方面,腐败不堪的政府施政失败,导致了＂三农＂的相关政策执行不力,给当时的社会造成了严重影响,直接导致了元末经济的崩溃,同时激发了社会阶级矛盾和民族矛盾,加速了元朝的覆灭,还对明初的相关政策措施产生了深远的影响。