Toward an integrated Bayesian network approach to measurement error detection and correction

In this article, the quality of data produced by national statistical institutes and by governmental institutions is considered. In particular, the problem of measurement error is analyzed and an integrated Bayesian network decision support system based on non-parametric Bayesian networks is proposed for its detection and correction. Non-parametric Bayesian networks are graphical models expressing dependence structure via bivariate copulas associated to the edges of the graph. The network structure and the misreport probability are estimated using a validation sample. The Bayesian network model is proposed to decide: (i) which records have to be corrected; (ii) the kind and amount of correction to be adopted. The proposed correction procedure is applied to the Banca d’Italia Survey on Household Income and Wealth and, specifically, the bond amounts are analyzed. Finally, the sensitivity of the conditional distribution of the true value random variable given the observed one to different evidence configurations is studied.     

大数据背景下网络调查样本的建模推断问题研究——以广义Boosted模型的倾向得分推断为例

随着大数据和网络的不断发展,网络调查越来越广泛,大部分网络调查样本属于非概率样本,难以采用传统的抽样推断理论进行推断,如何解决网络调查样本的推断问题是大数据背景下网络调查发展的迫切需求。本文首次从建模的角度提出了解决该问题的基本思路：一是入样概率的建模推断,可以考虑构建基于机器学习与变量选择的倾向得分模型来估计入样概率推断总体;二是目标变量的建模推断,可以考虑直接对目标变量建立参数、非参数或半参数超总体模型进行估计;三是入样概率与目标变量的双重建模推断,可以考虑进行倾向得分模型与超总体模型的加权估计与混合推断。最后,以基于广义Boosted模型的入样概率建模推断为例演示了具体解决方法。     

国家创新体系视角下的国家创新能力测度述评——理论方法、数据基础及中国实践

文章从国家创新体系角度,对创新能力测度相关的理论基础、方法工具、科技统计调查及中国的研究与实践进行全面梳理和分析。国家创新能力测度的发展与实践表明:国家创新体系理论(NIS理论)以系统论为指导全面考察创新活动的发生机制,为准确测度国家创新能力提供了有力支撑;不同时期形成的创新能力测度方法与当时占主流地位的创新理论密切相关;当前占主导地位的测度方法可分为建模计量法、综合指标法和DEA效率评价法三类,都是以NIS理论为支撑的;规范的科技统计调查是准确测度创新能力的前提,OECD是这方面的典范,其经验为发展中国家提供了参考依据;中国学者在测度方法的探索上有诸多独到之处,但国内科技统计调查工作仍有待进一步规范。     

Personal Values as Mitigating Factors in the Link Between Income and Life Satisfaction: Evidence from the European Social Survey

Using data from the first two rounds of the European Social Survey, we examine the link between income, reference income and life satisfaction across Western Europe. We find that whilst there is a strong positive relationship between income and life satisfaction, reference or comparison income exerts a strong negative influence. Interestingly, our results confirm the importance of personal values and beliefs not only as predictors of subjective well-being, but also as mitigating factors in the relationship between income, reference income and life satisfaction. While our findings provide additional empirical support for the relative utility hypothesis, they are also consistent with Rojas’ (J Econ Psychol 28:1–14, 2007) Conceptual-Referent-Theory (CRT), which is based on the premise that the salience of income and comparison income depends on one’s intrinsic values and personal beliefs.

Happiness is not Enough: Cognitive Judgements as Indicators of National Wellbeing

The European Social Survey, on which this issue of the journal focuses, is a 30-nation multi-funded survey series measuring attitude change. Started in 2001, it is characterised by unusually high standards of sampling and data equivalence. Its data are made available on-line with equal access to all, and have already attracted over 20,000 users. Many papers, articles and books based on the ESS have already appeared. But none has yet employed the data—whether alone or with other sources—to derive indicators of citizens’ cognitive judgements of their society. A recent EC grant is enabling the authors to fill this gap, covering topics such as trust in national institutions, tolerance, social cohesion, social trust and fear of crime. The aim is to be able to monitor changes over time in the distance between what citizens believe their society ought to be in these respects and how they actually perceive it to be.

农村集体成员权制度运行状况的实证分析——基于全国12省36县的实地调查

通过对全国12省36县进行田野调查,对农村集体成员权制度在农村社会运行状况进行统计分析,以弄清其实际运行状况,并结合我国相关法律制度与访谈材料做深入研究.结果显示:户籍确认标准已与社会现实之间存在着一定程度的张力;成员资格确认标准的严格程度与集体经济发达水平之间呈正相关;农户对成员权应然层面的主观认知与集体经济发达水平之间具有交互性影响;成员权的实际享有程度较高,但集体利益诉讼权的享有还有待强化;农户对法律明确规定成员资格丧失情形的认可度很高,且乡土社会内在逻辑深深影响着农户对成员资格丧失之应然情形的主观认知.     

《现代汉语》与《语言学概论》教学的对接研究

本文从教学内容、教学方法改革的角度对现代汉语与语言学概论课程的对接教学进行了研究和探讨。     

Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia

PURPOSE: We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. PROCEDURES: The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. FINDINGS: There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design of future maternal care interventions.     

Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys

Permanent and widespread psychological biases affect both the subjective probability of future economic events and their retrospective interpretation. They may give rise to a systematic gap between (over-critical) judgments and (over-optimistic) expectations – the “forecast” error. When things go bad, then, psychology suggests that people tend to become particularly bullish, amplifying the forecast error. Also, psychology argues that personal/future conditions are systematically perceived to be better than the aggregate/past ones. All this sharply contrasts with standard economic assumptions. Evidence from a unique dataset covering 10 European countries over 22 years confirms the presence of structural psychologically driven distortions in people’s judgments and expectations formation.     

Religion,Religiosity, and the Attitudes Toward Homosexuality—A Multilevel Analysis of 79 Countries

Although attitudes toward homosexuality have become more liberal, particularly in industrialized Western countries, there is still a great deal of variance in terms of worldwide levels of homonegativity. Using data from the two most recent waves of the World Values Survey (1999–2004, 2005–2009), this article seeks to explain this variance by means of a multilevel analysis of 79 countries. We include characteristics on the individual level, as age or gender, as well as aggregate variables linked to specificities of the nation-states. In particular, we focus on the religious denomination of a person and her religiosity to explain her attitude toward homosexuality. We find clear differences in levels of homonegativity among the followers of the individual religions.