On Comparing Alternative Advertising Policies of Pulsation*

In this paper, five alternative advertising policies that belong to the advertising pulsation class are compared analytically for linear and concave response functions using a modified version of the Vidale-Wolfe model. The results of the research show that (1) For both linear and concave response functions, advertising pulsing/maintenance policy dominates advertising pulsing policy but is dominated by the Uniform Advertising Policy. For convex response functions, the order of dominance is reversed. (2) For linear response functions, uniform advertising policy dominates the impulse advertising policy but is dominated by the chattering advertising policy. (3) For concave response functions, uniform advertising policy dominates both the impulse advertising policy and the chattering advertising policy. (4) For convex response functions, chattering advertising policy dominates both the advertising pulsing policy and the impulse advertising policy. The Vidale-Wolfe model is estimated using the well-known Lydia Pinkham data. Optimality analysis shows that the company was overadvertising about half of the time studied. Overadvertising seems to have produced appreciable gain in sales and created significant barriers to competitive entry at a little cost in terms of foregone profits.     

Interactive Effects of Major Response Facilitators

Practitioners and researchers have long been interested in achieving the highest response rate within resource constraints on their mailed surveys. Achieving this high response rate typically has required the selection of the right mix of response-facilitating techniques. The selection decisions were generally made under the assumption that the response-facilitating techniques act independently of one another. The authors have examined the validity of this independence assumption by identifying the major response facilitators in use and then analyzing the results of 531 independent mail survey studies. The authors conclude that major facilitators do not function independently. In fact, it was found that significant joint action interactive effects on response rates do exist. Practitioners and researchers who are faced with the survey design decisions of choosing response facilitators can receive assistance by reviewing the results of this diverse collection of reported experiences.     

On Sampling Error in Market Share Estimates*

The relative error in the usual estimator of a brand's market share is reformulated in terms of marketing parameters. Such error is shown to be influenced in an important way by market penetration, as well as by variation in brand and product category volume. Of particular interest is the result that the relative error does not depend on the actual share level. Using data from a marketing research firm that supplies share estimates to the health products industry, we find that the relative error may be substantial even when a large sample is available. An upper bound on this relative error is obtained using marketing parameters that can frequently be measured using industry data and a company's internal records, thus reducing the level of judgmental input required in the planning of sample surveys.     

Clarifying the role of belief-motive explanations in multi-stakeholder realist evaluation

In realist evaluation, where researchers aim to make program theories explicit, they can encounter competing explanations as to how programs work. Managing explanatory tensions from different sources of evidence in multi-stakeholder projects can challenge external evaluators, especially when access to pertinent data, like client records, is mediated by program stakeholders. In this article, we consider two central questions: how can program stakeholder motives shape a realist evaluation project; and how might realist evaluators respond to stakeholders’ belief-motive explanations, including those about program effectiveness, based on factors such as supererogatory commitment or trying together in good faith? Drawing on our realist evaluation of a service reform initiative involving multiple agencies, we describe stakeholder motives at key phases, highlighting a need for tactics and skills that help to manage explanatory tensions. In conclusion, the relevance of stakeholders’ belief-motive explanations (‘we believe the program works’) in realist evaluation is clarified and discussed.     

草木本有心,何求美人折——为《青海民族研究》公开发行20周年而作

回顾<青海民族研究>成长的历程,阐述她的学术品格、特色和优势,展望她的发展前景和趋势,提出加强编辑力量、提高编辑水平的建议.     

Developing a methodology to assess the impact of research grant funding: A mixed methods approach

This paper discusses the development of a mixed methods approach to analyse research funding. Research policy has taken on an increasingly prominent role in the broader political scene, where research is seen as a critical factor in maintaining and improving growth, welfare and international competitiveness. This has motivated growing emphasis on the impacts of science funding, and how funding can best be designed to promote socio-economic progress. Meeting these demands for impact assessment involves a number of complex issues that are difficult to fully address in a single study or in the design of a single methodology. However, they point to some general principles that can be explored in methodological design. We draw on a recent evaluation of the impacts of research grant funding, discussing both key issues in developing a methodology for the analysis and subsequent results. The case of research grant funding, involving a complex mix of direct and intermediate effects that contribute to the overall impact of funding on research performance, illustrates the value of a mixed methods approach to provide a more robust and complete analysis of policy impacts. Reflections on the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology are used to examine refinements for future work.     

International Organisations and the Politics of Migration

The last two decades have seen major shifts in the way international organisations (IOs) address migration. While state sovereignty remains central in the politics of migration, IOs are increasingly developing their visions regarding how the cross-border movements of people should be governed (or ‘managed’) and, in some cases, they have become important actors in the design and implementation of migration policy. Research on the role and functions of IOs remains scarce, however, and there are major uncertainties, concerning not only their actual influence, but also the political context in which they operate and the outcome of their initiatives. According to their advocates, the involvement of IOs would enable greater international cooperation, which would lead to policies that pay greater attention to human rights and development imperatives. Yet, at times, interventions by IOs seem to reinforce existing imbalances, as these organisations primarily tend to align themselves with the interests and agenda of developed receiving states. In addition, the work of IOs is embedded in a complex institutional setting, characterised by sometimes-problematic institutional relations between them, as well as between IOs and other international cooperation mechanisms.     

血栓弹力图在PCI术后患者抗血小板治疗中的应用研究

目的:研究血栓弹力图在经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)患者中,使用血栓弹力图所测定的血小板抑制率的波动及临床疗效作用。方法:选取我院2012年1月份至2013年12月份收治的200例冠心病PCI治疗患者,应用血栓弹力图分析仪测定其二磷酸腺苷(ADP)途径诱导的血小板抑制率数据,根据抑制率差异分为3组,抑制率70%的为合格组,抑制率30%的为不合格组,入选不合格组再次分为2组,1组保持常规剂量治疗不变,另一组为大剂量治疗组。结果:随访半年的记录,记录一般情况及严重心脏不良事件发生情况。结果:随访的6个月中,共发生不良事件28例,其中合格组10例(9.6%),常规治疗组11例(22.4%),大剂量治疗组7例(14.9%),3组中不良事件发生率比常规治疗组大于大剂量治疗组,大剂量治疗组大于合格组,统计学上有明显差异(P0.05)。结论:血栓弹力图在PCI患者抗血小板治疗中应用具有一定的指导意义。     

中国文化对外传播效果研究——对5国16所孔子学院的调查

本文通过对美国、日本、俄罗斯、泰国、黎巴嫩5个国家16所孔子学院的调查发现:当前孔子学院在全球范围内取得了一定的传播效果;但不同层次的中国文化传播效果存在较大差异;中国文化在不同文化圈层,尤其是儒家文化圈层和非儒家文化圈层中的传播效果有很大不同;国与国之间也存在较大差异.本文提出,针对非儒家文化国家,要让中国的物质文化先走出去,行为文化、精神文化可暂时缓行.     

错误记忆的研究新进展

错误记忆是记忆研究的一个较为重要的领域,近几十年的研究历史中,经过研究者的不断努力,取得了丰硕的成果。现阶段对于错误记忆主要的研究范式有联想研究范式和无意识知觉研究范式以及误导信息干扰和k-k研究范式。错误记忆的影响因素研究主要集中在加工水平、无意识作用、情绪作用、加工通道等方面。