“It was like leaving your family”: Gentrification and the impacts of displacement on public housing tenants in inner‐Sydney

In March 2014, the minister responsible announced that all of the approximately 600 public housing tenants of Millers Point and the Sirius Building in inner Sydney are to be moved and the properties sold. Millers Point is probably the oldest public housing area in Australia. The Sirius Building was purpose built for public housing tenants in the late 1970s. The article briefly examines the gentrification process in the Millers Point area. However, the main focus, drawing on six in‐depth interviews with public housing tenants who are still residents in the area and 13 who have moved, is an examination of the impact of the government's removal announcement and the actual displacement of residents. What this article illustrates is that the place attachment of most of the interviewees was profound and the removal announcement and the actual move were devastating. Interviewees spoke of deep sadness and anxiety at the thought of leaving what they considered a unique and genuine community. Residents who had moved told of their isolation and melancholy at having lost their local social network. The research shows that the human cost of policies and not revenue should always be the central consideration.     

建立可持续发展的西部大开发战略

中国人口资源、环境、经济、社会等因素的特点,决定了可持续发展的落脚点最终在西部地区。中国可持续发展要以西部大开发为依托,建立可持续发展的西部大开发战略要根据西部实际、结合我国国情,借鉴他国区域开发经验,采取相应对策。     

开放式样本综合指数的编制与调整

 内容提要：随着我国以市场机制配置资源的基本经济制度不断强化,近来在我国社会经济生活中各种指数如雨后春笋遍地开花。在指数实践迅速推进的同时,指数理论的研究却显得明显有些滞后,尤其是开放式样本综合指数的相关问题更是被大家所忽略。本文结合上证综合指数失真的现实,从权数的选择、权数与市场重要程度一致性、动态基期基点选择等多角度对开放式样本综合指数的编制与样本量变动期的调整方案进行了探讨,提出了相应的系统解决方案,并利用该方案重新考察了2006年以后上证综合指数的运行状况。     

Statistics for Extreme Sea Currents

Estimates of various characteristics of extreme sea currents, such as speeds and their directions, are required when designing offshore structures. This paper extends standard statistical methods for extreme values to handle the directionality, temporal dependence and tidal non-stationarity that are present in sea current extremes. The methods are applied to a short period of data from the Inner Dowsing Light Tower in the North Sea. Substantial benefits, over existing methods, are obtained from our analysis of the sea current by decomposing it into tide and surge currents. In particular, we find that at the Inner Dowsing the strong directionality in extreme sea current speeds is completely explained by the tidal current and directionality in the non-extreme surge currents. This finding aids model fitting and extrapolation.     

The False Positive Risk: A Proposal Concerning What to Do About p-Values

Abstract

It is widely acknowledged that the biomedical literature suffers from a surfeit of false positive results. Part of the reason for this is the persistence of the myth that observation of p?<?0.05 is sufficient justification to claim that you have made a discovery. It is hopeless to expect users to change their reliance on p-values unless they are offered an alternative way of judging the reliability of their conclusions. If the alternative method is to have a chance of being adopted widely, it will have to be easy to understand and to calculate. One such proposal is based on calculation of false positive risk(FPR). It is suggested that p-values and confidence intervals should continue to be given, but that they should be supplemented by a single additional number that conveys the strength of the evidence better than the p-value. This number could be the minimum FPR (that calculated on the assumption of a prior probability of 0.5, the largest value that can be assumed in the absence of hard prior data). Alternatively one could specify the prior probability that it would be necessary to believe in order to achieve an FPR of, say, 0.05.     

Parental time and working schedules

This paper investigates the effects of working schedules and of other characteristics (including family composition) on the time devoted by mothers and fathers to different activities with children in Canadian households, by using 1992 and 1998 Canadian Time Use Surveys. Switching regression models and models with selection allow us to simultaneously model labour market participation, type of work schedules and allocation of parental time. Working time has a negative and very significant effect on parental time. Hours worked during the day or at night exert a similar effect on parental time, but the impact of hours worked in the evening is by far larger. Time worked in the evening mainly decreases leisure and social activities with children.

An extension of Monte Carlo hypothesis tests

There are many hypothesis testing settings in which one can calculate a “reasonable” test statistic, but in which the null distribution of the statistic is unknown or completely intractable. Fortunately, in many such situations, it is possible to simulate values of the test statistic under the null hypothesis, in which case one can conduct a Monte Carlo test. A difficulty however arises in that Monte Carlo tests, as they are currently structured, are applicable only if ties cannot occur among the values of the test statistics. There is a frequently occurring scenario in which there are lots of ties, namely that in which the null distribution of the test statistic has a (single) point mass. It turns out that one can modify the current form of Monte Carlo tests so as to accommodate such settings. Developing this modification leads to an intriguing identity involving the binomial probability function and its derivatives. In this article, we will briefly explain the modified procedure, discuss simulation studies which demonstrate its efficacy, and provide a proof of the identity referred to above.     

浅谈中央人民政府与西藏地方政府签定 《十七条协议》的历史意义

1951年5月23日,中央人民政府和西藏地方政府签订了关于和平解放西藏办法的协议(即<十七条协议>),自此西藏民族永远脱离帝国主义的侵略和羁绊,在中华人民共和国各民族平等联合友爱合作的大家庭中,走上了团结、进步、发展的光明大道.<十七条协议>是西藏历史发展的必然产物,"和平解放"的实现为西藏的发展进步奠定了基础,60年来的实践 说明,<十七条协议>的各项原则经受住了历史的检验.     

改革策略与公众信念的一致性——一个"转型原理"的基本阐释

历史或历史逻辑起点对制度演化轨迹的影响,是通过塑造参与改革过程的社会公众(参与人)的信念而实现的,参与人(公众)信念部分但十分关键地决定着改革走向,因此,确保改革策略与公众信念的一致性是成功转轨的关键,这个“一致性”的说法就是“以民为本”。进一步,要保证所有领域的改革获得彼此协调性并取得最终成功,就应使与不同领域改革策略相一致的参与人信念彼此间出现最大公约数。改革并不意味着否定历史,它只是针对历史而进行的一系列的创造性调整和转换。