面向农户与农村中小企业的微型信贷机制研究——兼论广东小额贷款的存续机制

立足于弱势市场信贷机制的基础上,分析了基于农户与农村中小企业的微型信贷市场分离均衡现象,并建立了贷款需求者的均衡选择模型、信贷机构贷款供给路径模型和银行预期利润函数,研究了微型信贷发展的可持续性问题;通过相关参数的特征分析,论证了信贷机构期望收益的最优路径。在模型分析的基础上,研究了广东小额信贷市场的存续机制;并针对小额贷款公司自身发展的特征,从风险防范、示范效应与政策激励方面提出了相关建议。     

Improved WLP and GWP lower bounds based on exact integer programming

By using exact integer programming (IP) (integer programming in infinite precision) bounds on the word-length patterns (WLPs) and generalized word-length patterns (GWPs) for fractional factorial designs are improved. In the literature, bounds on WLPs are formulated as linear programming (LP) problems. Although the solutions to such problems must be integral, the optimization is performed without the integrality constraints. Two examples of this approach are bounds on the number of words of length four for resolution IV regular designs, and a lower bound for the GWP of two-level orthogonal arrays. We reformulate these optimization problems as IP problems with additional valid constraints in the literature and improve the bounds in many cases. We compare the improved bound to the enumeration results in the literature to find many cases for which our bounds are achieved. By using the constraints in our integer programs we prove that f(16λ,2,4)?9$f(16\lambda ,2,4)?9$ if λ$\lambda$ is odd where f(2^tλ,2,t)$f(2^t\lambda ,2,t)$ is the maximum n   for which an OA(N,n,2,t)$\mathrm{OA}(N,n,2,t)$ exists. We also present a theorem for constructing GMA OA(N,N/2-u,2,3)$\mathrm{OA}(N,N/2-u,2,3)$ for u=1,…,5$u=1,\dots ,5$.     

Approximation algorithms for hard variants of the stable marriage and hospitals/residents problems

When ties and incomplete preference lists are permitted in the Stable Marriage and Hospitals/Residents problems, stable matchings can have different sizes. The problem of finding a maximum cardinality stable matching in this context is known to be NP-hard, even under very severe restrictions on the number, size and position of ties. In this paper, we describe polynomial-time 5/3-approximation algorithms for variants of these problems in which ties are on one side only and at the end of the preference lists. The particular variant is motivated by important applications in large scale centralised matching schemes. A preliminary version of this paper appeared in the Proceedings of COCOON 2007, LNCS, vol. 4598, pp. 548–558. This work was supported by EPSRC grant EP/E011993/1.     

A “Reverse Order” Elementary Statistics Course

A family of coefficients for measuring monotone association is presented. These include measures of association of ordinal or interval variables such as gamma of Goodman and Kruskal, Somers's d_yx , Kendall's tau, or Spearman's rho as special cases. The article shows how a large number of measures of association can be put into a single general form. These coefficients are used as a basis for defining a variety of data analysis techniques.     

On Infinitely Divisible Exponential Dispersion Model Related to Poisson-Exponential Distribution

We construct a univariate exponential dispersion model comprised of discrete infinitely divisible distributions. This model emerges in the theory of branching processes. We obtain a representation for the Lévy measure of relevant distributions and characterize their laws as Poisson mixtures and/or compound Poisson distributions. The regularity of the unit variance function of this model is employed for the derivation of approximations by the Poisson-exponential model. We emphasize the role of the latter class. We construct local approximations relating them to properties of special functions and branching diffusions.     

Performance measurement as a policy instrument

ABSTRACT

The rise of government by indicators, by figures may reveal a new wave of rationalization organized by the state in the classic Weberian sense. Contemporary forms of government are marked by the rise of indicators, measures and new metrics to compare, certify, codify and evaluate. In many countries, performance measurement has become one of the symbols of the transformation of governance. The paper aims to show how performance indicators are a particular type of policy instrument that increases competitive pressure within societies even if that cannot be analysed only in terms of neoliberalism.     

Stochastic Liénard Equations with Random Switching and Two-time Scales

This article is devoted to the study of stochastic Liénard equations with random switching. The motivation of our study stems from modeling of complex systems in which both continuous dynamics and discrete events are present. The continuous component is a solution of a stochastic Liénard equation and the discrete component is a Markov chain with a finite state space that is large. A distinct feature is that the processes under consideration are time inhomogeneous. Based on the idea of nearly decomposability and aggregation, the state space of the switching process can be viewed as “nearly decomposable” into l subspaces that are connected with weak interactions among the subspaces. Using the idea of aggregation, we lump the states in each subspace into a single state. Considering the pair of process (continuous state, discrete state), under suitable conditions, we derive a weak convergence result by means of martingale problem formulation. The significance of the limit process is that it is substantially simpler than that of the original system. Thus, it can be used in the approximation and computation work to reduce the computational complexity.     

On Robustness of Model-Based Bootstrap Schemes in Nonparametric Time Series Analysis

Theory in time series analysis is often developed under the assumption of finite-dimensional models for the data generating process. Whereas corresponding estimators such as those of a conditional mean function are reasonable even if the true dependence mechanism is more complex, it is usually necessary to capture the whole dependence structure asymptotically for the bootstrap to be valid. In contrast, we show that certain simplified bootstrap schemes which imitate only some aspects of the time series are consistent for quantities arising in nonparametric statistics. To this end, we generalize the well-known "whitening by windowing" principle to joint distributions of nonparametric estimators of the autoregression function. Consequently, we obtain that model-based nonparametric bootstrap schemes remain valid for supremum-type functionals as long as they mimic those finite-dimensional joint distributions consistently which determine the quantity of interest. As an application, we show that simple regression-type bootstrap schemes can be applied for the determination of critical values for nonparametric tests of parametric or semiparametric hypotheses on the autoregression function in the context of a general process.     

Linearity of regression for the past weak and ordinary records

In this paper we study the property of linearity of backward regression for non-adjacent records. In the case of weak records, a characterization of the geometric distribution is obtained. It also appears that a related characterization for ordinary records does not hold, showing the difference in conditional behaviour between weak and ordinary records.