On weak consistency in linear models with equi-correlated random errors

A new estimator in linear models with equi-correlated random errors is postulated. Consistency properties of the proposed estimator and the ordinary least squares estimator are studied. It is shown that the new estimator has smaller variance than the usual least squares estimator under some mild conditions. In addition, it is observed that the new estimator tends to be weakly consistent in many cases where the usual least squares estimator is not.     

Identification and Inference With Many Invalid Instruments

We study estimation and inference in settings where the interest is in the effect of a potentially endogenous regressor on some outcome. To address the endogeneity, we exploit the presence of additional variables. Like conventional instrumental variables, these variables are correlated with the endogenous regressor. However, unlike conventional instrumental variables, they also have direct effects on the outcome, and thus are “invalid” instruments. Our novel identifying assumption is that the direct effects of these invalid instruments are uncorrelated with the effects of the instruments on the endogenous regressor. We show that in this case the limited-information-maximum-likelihood (liml) estimator is no longer consistent, but that a modification of the bias-corrected two-stage-least-square (tsls) estimator is consistent. We also show that conventional tests for over-identifying restrictions, adapted to the many instruments setting, can be used to test for the presence of these direct effects. We recommend that empirical researchers carry out such tests and compare estimates based on liml and the modified version of bias-corrected tsls. We illustrate in the context of two applications that such practice can be illuminating, and that our novel identifying assumption has substantive empirical content.     

New ASA Fellows—1967

This paper presents at an elementary level a unified presentation of concepts related to sufficiency and minimal sufficiency. Extensively discussed are techniques for showing in a particular statistical model that a given statistic is not sufficient or that a given sufficient statistic is not minimal. The applicability of these techniques is illustrated in three examples.     

Constructing Optimal Instruments by First‐Stage Prediction Averaging

This paper considers model averaging as a way to construct optimal instruments for the two‐stage least squares (2SLS), limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), and Fuller estimators in the presence of many instruments. We propose averaging across least squares predictions of the endogenous variables obtained from many different choices of instruments and then use the average predicted value of the endogenous variables in the estimation stage. The weights for averaging are chosen to minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the model averaging version of the 2SLS, LIML, or Fuller estimator. This can be done by solving a standard quadratic programming problem.     

False discovery rates for large-scale model checking under certain dependence

In many scientific fields, it is interesting and important to determine whether an observed data stream comes from a prespecified model or not, particularly when the number of data streams is of large scale, where multiple hypotheses testing is necessary. In this article, we consider large-scale model checking under certain dependence among different data streams observed at the same time. We propose a false discovery rate (FDR) control procedure to check those unusual data streams. Specifically, we derive an approximation of false discovery and construct a point estimate of FDR. Theoretical results show that, under some mild assumptions, our proposed estimate of FDR is simultaneously conservatively consistent with the true FDR, and hence it is an asymptotically strong control procedure. Simulation comparisons with some competing procedures show that our proposed FDR procedure behaves better in general settings. Application of our proposed FDR procedure is illustrated by the StarPlus fMRI data.     

On Non-Normal Invariance Principles for Multi-Response Permutation Procedures

A non-normal invariance principle is established for a restricted class of univariate multi-response permutation procedures whose distance measure is the square of Euclidean distance. For observations from a distribution with finite second moment, the test statistic is found asymptotically to have a centered chi-squared distribution. Spectral expansions are used to determine the asymptotic distribution for more general distance measures d, and it is shown that if d(x, y) = |x — y|^u, u? 2, the asymptotic distribution is not invariant (i.e. it is dependent on the distribution of the observations).     

Properties of occurrence-exposure rate processes in multiple decrement theory

In a basic multiple decrement model empirical occurrence-exposure rates are defined for each of k risks to which a cohort from an animal or human population is exposed over a time interval. These rates are viewed as the evolution of a stochastic process. Some asymptotic properties of this process are considered. Weak convergence of the process and its uniform strong convergence are shown under mild conditions.