构建下岗职工再就业社会保障体系

下岗职工群体在社会中处于就业的弱势地位,具有经济收入低、生活质量差、心理压力大、自我保护能力差的特点,已经构成影响社会稳定发展的重要风险之一;解决下岗职工再就业是我国社会发展中不可忽视的问题;通过论述建立多层次社会支持的下岗职工网络体系以及第三部门志愿者体系,创新地提出了完善再就业系统工程的构想。     

SEPARATION, WEAK EXOGENEITY, AND P-T DECOMPOSITION IN COINTEGRATED VAR SYSTEMS WITH COMMON FEATURES

The aim of this paper is to study the concept of separability in multiple nonstationary time series displaying both common stochastic trends and common stochastic cycles. When modeling the dynamics of multiple time series for a panel of several entities such as countries, sectors, firms, imposing some form of separability and commonalities is often required to restrict the dimension of the parameter space. For this purpose we introduce the concept of common feature separation and investigate the relationships between separation in cointegration and separation in serial correlation common features. Loosely speaking we investigate whether a set of time series can be partitioned into subsets such that there are serial correlation common features within the sub-groups only. The paper investigates three issues. First, it provides conditions for separating joint cointegrating vectors into marginal cointegrating vectors as well as separating joint short-term dynamics into marginal short-term dynamics. Second, conditions for making permanent-transitory decompositions based on marginal systems are given. Third, issues of weak exogeneity are considered. Likelihood ratio type tests for the different hypotheses under study are proposed. An empirical analysis of the link between economic fluctuations in the United States and Canada shows the practical relevance of the approach proposed in this paper.     

How does policy advice of the international monetary fund differ along the income of advised countries?

ABSTRACT

The policy advice literature has paid little attention to the role of international organizations in policy advisory systems. This article offers a systematic analysis of policy advice provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the framework of the IMF’s regular Article IV consultations. The article argues that the content of IMF advice differs according to the income of the advised countries. Content analyses of the Article IV consultation reports of 18 countries show correlations between the gross national income (GNI) of the advised countries and the function of advice in the policy cycle, the specificity of advice, the recommended policy instruments and the targeted policy issues. Results show that the IMF rather points to policy problems, advices on policy goals and focuses on improving implementation when advising lower income countries. When advising higher income countries, the IMF’s advice focuses on means and specific policy tools.     

市政债券匹配城镇化建设资金需求的理论分析

城镇基础设施和公共服务等社会公共品理应由地方政府提供,地方政府需要为此筹措长期建设资金。市政债券与城镇化建设相关投资相契合,在城镇化建设融资中具有良好的适应能力,能够在融资安排和风险防范上有所作为,在城镇化发展过程中担当融资主体。并且市政债券能很好地匹配、适应和耦合城镇基础设施建设资金需求的特点,避免其他融资方式或融资工具可能存在的期限错配。市政债券是适合城镇化建设融资、有助于建立多元化的城镇化建设融资体系与可持续的城镇化建设融资机制,从而积极稳妥地推进城镇化的有效融资工具。     

Weak ties and the core discussion network: Why people regularly discuss important matters with unimportant alters

Researchers have paid increasing attention to the core discussion network, the set of friends and family people turn to when discussing important matters. For nearly thirty years, social network researchers have argued that the network is composed of ego's closest or most important alters. This assumption, however, has not been tested empirically. Using original data on an online representative quota survey of 2000 respondents, I find that 45% of the core discussion network is composed of people whom respondents do not consider important to them. In fact, the core discussion network includes doctors, co-workers, spiritual leaders, and other alters whom ego confides in without feeling emotionally attached to. I examine what respondents consider important matters and why they approach weak ties to discuss these. Placing emphasis on the process through which ego mobilizes alters, I develop two theoretical perspectives, which focus on how people identify those appropriate to a topic and how they respond to opportunities in interactional contexts. Findings suggest that ego discusses important matters with non-close alters at times because they are known to be knowledgeable (targeted mobilization) and at times because they are available when important issues arise (opportune mobilization). Results suggest that recent findings about changes in the core discussion network of Americans are consistent with several different possibilities about the nature of strong ties, including those in which there has been no change at all.     

NAPLAN data: a new policy assemblage and mode of governance in Australian schooling

ABSTRACT

As part of a policy assemblage, the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) is representative of a new mode of governance for Australia's schooling systems, indicative of international trends in educational accountability based on testing. The policy assumption was that the introduction of a national performance measurement system would tightly couple school practices to national agendas targeted at improving learning outcomes. This paper presents a comparative case study of two primary schools within a single Queensland region to interrogate how coupling and decoupling strategies are enacted in respect of the policy usage of NAPLAN data. The granular analysis of the governance relationship between the school principals and their supervisors is set against the politics, policies and pressures of NAPLAN that recast the initiative as high stakes for systems, schools and their leadership. Specifically, we argue that Queensland's choice and enactment of policy instruments have produced a new mode of governance of principal conduct, but one mediated by the specific contexts of the two schools. The analysis shows how this mode has precipitated two types of decoupling.     

国际行政法之论——全球化与全球治理视野中的国际法治

国际行政法是针对跨国行政活动和国际治理中的国际行政合作关系作出的规制和调整,是在传统国际法体系中出现的一个新兴分支领域,其逻辑起点和理论根基是全球治理的提出。全球治理中善治标准的实现需要引入行政法等一系列工具,因而全球治理的提出与行政法有着与生俱来、不可分离的关联性,行政法构成全球治理的微观基础。全球治理的大部分内容可以作为行政行为来加以理解和分析,即规则制定、冲突利益间的行政裁决,以及其他形式规制性和行政性的决定和管理。目前,一个规范等级逐渐鲜明的"国际行政法"体系正在产生并逐步形成,中国应该积极参与到这一进程当中。     

Further Evidence on the Great Crash,the Oil-Price Shock,and the Unit-Root Hypothesis

Recently, Perron has carried out tests of the unit-root hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis of trend stationarity with a break in the trend occurring at the Great Crash of 1929 or at the 1973 oil-price shock. His analysis covers the Nelson–Plosser macroeconomic data series as well as a postwar quarterly real gross national product (GNP) series. His tests reject the unit-root null hypothesis for most of the series. This article takes issue with the assumption used by Perron that the Great Crash and the oil-price shock can be treated as exogenous events. A variation of Perron's test is considered in which the breakpoint is estimated rather than fixed. We argue that this test is more appropriate than Perron's because it circumvents the problem of data-mining. The asymptotic distribution of the estimated breakpoint test statistic is determined. The data series considered by Perron are reanalyzed using this test statistic. The empirical results make use of the asymptotics developed for the test statistic as well as extensive finite-sample corrections obtained by simulation. The effect on the empirical results of fat-tailed and temporally dependent innovations is investigated, in brief, by treating the breakpoint as endogenous, we find that there is less evidence against the unit-root hypothesis than Perron finds for many of the data series but stronger evidence against it for several of the series, including the Nelson-Plosser industrial-production, nominal-GNP, and real-GNP series.     

Likelihood-Based Inference for Weak Exogeneity in I(2) Cointegrated VAR Models

This article develops limit theory for likelihood analysis of weak exogeneity in I(2) cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models incorporating deterministic terms. Conditions for weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR models are reviewed, and the asymptotic properties of conditional maximum likelihood estimators and a likelihood-based weak exogeneity test are then investigated. It is demonstrated that weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR models allows us to conduct asymptotic conditional inference based on mixed Gaussian distributions. It is then proved that a log-likelihood ratio test statistic for weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR models is asymptotically χ² distributed. The article also presents an empirical illustration of the proposed test for weak exogeneity using Japan's macroeconomic data.