Determining Differences in Expert Judgment: Implications for Knowledge Acquisition and Validation*

In knowledge acquisition, it is often desirable to aggregate the judgments of multiple experts into a single system. In some cases this takes the form of averaging the judgments of those experts. In these situations it is desirable to determine if the experts have different views of the world before their individual judgments are aggregated. In validation, multiple experts often are employed to compare the performance of expert systems and other human actors. Often those judgments are then averaged to establish performance quality of the expert system. An important part of the comparison process should be determining if the experts have a similar view of the world. If the experts do not have similar views, their evaluations of performance may differ, resulting in a meaningless average performance measure. Alternatively, if all the validating experts do have similar views of the world then the validation process may result in paradigm myopia.     

梅尼克的思想史观念研究

梅尼克是德国历史主义学派个体性学说的主要代表。他认为,个体是历史发展的动力,个体化方法是认识历史价值和意义的途径,由此他抵制实证主义和集体主义,并将运用于历史研究的个体性思想提升为一种世界观。在新柏拉图主义、自由意志论与个体性学说的影响下,梅尼克认识到思想既是个体的特质与发展动力,也是文化价值的创造。将思想史视为历史表现的核心领域,这是梅尼克史学方法区别于其他德国历史主义学派史学家的独到之处。通过思想,梅尼克看到个体与永恒的融合,从而感受到历史的真正魅力,也发现了当下生活的指针。     

The Role of Interorganizational and Organizational Factors on the Decision Mode for Adoption of Interorganizational Systems*

The dramatic growth of interorganizational systems (IOS) has changed the way organizations conduct their business, and has resulted in significant tangible and intangible benefits being realized by participating firms. However, the implementation of these IOS requires the cooperation and commitment of all the participating members. These members may have complex economic and business relationships among themselves that can result in a number of social, political, and economic factors influencing the adoption and implementation of IOS. This study examines the role of interorganizational and organizational factors on the decision mode for adoption of IOS, in the specific context of electronic data interchange (EDI). Four interorganizational factors, based on the socio-political framework derived from research in marketing, and five organizational factors based on research in IS were used in the study. The data for the study were collected through a large scale field survey. Two respondents, the sales/purchase manager and the IS manager, from 201 firms responded to the survey. The results of discriminant analysis of the data reveal that two interorganizational variables, competitive pressure and exercised power, and two organizational variables, internal need and top management support, are important variables to differentiate firms with proactive decision mode from firms with reactive decision mode. The study also evaluates the differences between proactive and reactive firms on three implementation outcomes. Proactive firms are found to have greater extent of adaptation, more external connectivity with trading partners, and better integration of EDI information in their internal IS applications.     

The Impact of a Structured-Argument Approach on Group Problem Formulation*

Despite advances in decision analysis and decision support systems, few formulaic procedures exist for undertaking problem formulation, particularly in group settings. This leaves managers with little procedural support for the important task of carefully structuring problems. In a laboratory experiment of 29 intact student teams, we contrasted two problem formulation methodologies: a structured argument approach (based on application of formal reasoning) and a group process approach (based on private idea generation prior to public sharing and evaluation of ideas). The structured argument approach took more time to use and failed to bring about more information search and equivocality reduction in group discussions. On the positive side, however, the structured argument approach led to a greater combination of both coverage of critical issues and consensus on those issues. Use of the structured argument approach also resulted in higher satisfaction with the problem definition and commitment to implementing results of the group meeting. Overall, the results reveal cost/benefit tradeoffs associated with developing argumentation-based procedures for problem formulation.     

A Path Analytic Model of a Theory of Quality Management Underlying the Deming Management Method: Preliminary Empirical Findings*

Despite the impact that Deming and his 14 Points have had on the practice of quality management, empirical support for the effectiveness of the Deming Management Method has not advanced beyond the presentation of anecdotal, case-study evidence. In part, this is because theory to guide the conduct of empirical research has not been available. Only recently has such a theory of quality management to describe and explain the effectiveness of the Deming Management Method been articulated in the literature. This paper continues the journey of theory development; it reports the results of an exploratory empirical analysis of an articulated theory of quality management underlying the Deming Management Method. The constructs in the proposed theory are operationalized using measurement statements developed by the World-Class Manufacturing research project team at the University of Minnesota and Iowa State University. Path analysis is applied to the World-Class Manufacturing project data to explore the empirical strength of relationships advanced in the theory. The path analytic results provide support for several of the proposed relationships in the theory, and more importantly, suggest a number of new relationships which have not heretofore been proposed.     

Discretionary Use of Computers: An Empirically Derived Explanatory Model*

This study identifies variables that explain variations in computer use. Factor analysis of data gathered from 422 business administration faculty reveal eight themes among the independent variables. Seven of these factors significantly discriminate among non, minimal, and high users. These results suggest an empirical model for future studies and provide policy insights for decision makers seeking to stimulate computer usage. Additionally, the study shows that there is much commonality between the previously separate organizational innovation and information systems implementation streams. It also demonstrates that motivation theory may be a valid framework within which to study computer use.     

Cognitive Fit: A Theory-Based Analysis of the Graphs Versus Tables Literature*

A considerable amount of research has been conducted over a long period of time into the effects of graphical and tabular representations on decision-making performance. To date, however, the literature appears to have arrived at few conclusions with regard to the performance of the two representations. This paper addresses these issues by presenting a theory, based on information processing theory, to explain under what circumstances one representation outperforms the other. The fundamental aspects of the theory are: (1) although graphical and tabular representations may contain the same information, they present that information in fundamentally different ways; graphical representations emphasize spatial information, while tables emphasize symbolic information; (2) tasks can be divided into two types, spatial and symbolic, based on the type of information that facilitates their solution; (3) performance on a task will be enhanced when there is a cognitive fit (match) between the information emphasized in the representation type and that required by the task type; that is, when graphs support spatial tasks and when tables support symbolic tasks; (4) the processes or strategies problem solvers use are the crucial elements of cognitive fit since they provide the link between representation and task; the processes identified here are perceptual and analytical; (5) so long as there is a complete fit of representation, processes, and task type, each representation will lead to both quicker and more accurate problem solving. The theory is validated by its success in explaining the results of published studies that examine the performance of graphical and tabular representations in decision making.     

新时代下物联网产业的发展困境与推进原则 —— 工信部《物联网“十二五”发展规划》解读

2012年2月14日,工业与信息化正式发布了《物联网“十二五”发展规划》,这是物联网首次国家层面上的产业整体发展规划。物联网产业是战略性新兴产业的重要一项,对于加快转变经济发展方式,推动相关产业转型升级具有重要作用。本规划的推出将会引导各级政府进行物联网产业发展布局,争取形成新一代信息技术产业发展的合力,推动我国经济在十二五阶段更快更稳发展。     

国际官方统计的新发展

联合国统计委员会会议是国际统计界的盛会,集中反映全球官方统计的最新成果和进展。本文对联合国统计委员会第50届会议最主要的若干问题,包括《2030年可持续发展议程》的数据和指标、官方统计基本原则、国家质量保证框架、官方统计使用大数据、国民账户体系、统计用途商业登记册、价格统计、住户调查、国际比较方案等领域的新发展进行了概述,从4个方面提出了国际官方统计的新发展对中国政府统计工作的启示。     

高质量发展评价指标体系探讨

党的十九大作出我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段的重大判断。测度高质量发展的前提是,在准确理解和把握高质量发展内涵的基础上构建一套科学合理的评价指标体系。通过对高质量发展统计内涵的深入考察,本文在充分梳理、借鉴国内外有关同类评价指标体系的基础上,从“人民美好生活需要”和“不平衡不充分发展”这个社会主要矛盾的两个方面着手,构建了一个由经济活力、创新效率、绿色发展、人民生活、社会和谐5个部分共27个指标构成的高质量发展评价指标体系。该指标体系的特点是：紧扣高质量发展的内涵和新时代社会主要矛盾的变化,指标数量不多但覆盖新发展理念的各个方面,指标不重复,数据易获得。