屠隆与普陀十二景

普陀山雄奇幽灵的自然景观，经历代文人题咏，便有了人文品格，成为山水风景社会化的显著标志。明代戏剧家屠隆首题普陀山十二景，并且是《普陀十二景诗》的始作俑者，对后世有较大影响。     

Simple inference in multinomial and ordered logit

This paper provides some simple methods of interpreting the coefficients in multinomial logit and ordered logit models. These methods are summarized in Propositions concerning the magnitudes, signs, and patterns of partial derivatives of the outcome probabilities with respect to the exogenousvariables. The paper also provides an empirical example illustrating the use of these Propositions.     

Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters

Time series models are presented, for which the seasonal-component estimates delivered by linear least squares signal extraction closely approximate those of the standard option of the widely-used Census X-11 program. Earlier work is extended by consideration of a broader class of models and by examination of asymmetric filters, in addition to the symmetric filter implicit in the adjustment of historical data. Various criteria that guide the specification of unobserved- components models are discussed, and a new preferred model is presented. Some nonstandard options in X-11 are considered in the Appendix.     

D-optimal minimax regression designs on discrete design space

One classical design criterion is to minimize the determinant of the covariance matrix of the regression estimates, and the designs are called D-optimal designs. To reflect the nature that the proposed models are only approximately true, we propose a robust design criterion to study response surface designs. Both the variance and bias are considered in the criterion. In particular, D-optimal minimax designs are investigated and constructed. Examples are given to compare D-optimal minimax designs with classical D-optimal designs.     

A nonparametric repeated significance test with adaptive target sample size

In this article a general result is derived that, along with a functional central limit theorem for a sequence of statistics, can be employed in developing a nonparametric repeated significance test with adaptive target sample size. This method is used in deriving a repeated significance test with adaptive target sample size for the shift model. The repeated significance test is based on a functional central limit theorem for a sequence of partial sums of truncated observations. Based on numerical results presented in this article one can conclude that this nonparametric sequential test performs quite well.     

二溴羟基苯基荧光酮分光光度法测定痕量钴的研究

本文研究了在CTMAB及Cl~-存在的情况下,二溴羟基苯基荧光酮光度法测定痕量钴的方法。在pH=9～11范围内,Co(Ⅱ)与显色剂形成1:5的蓝色配合物,其最大吸收波长位于640nm,表观摩尔吸光系数为1.4×10~5。钴量在0～14μg·50mL~(-1)范围内符合比耳定律。本法应用于猪肝中痕量钴的分析,结果令人满意。     

烧结温度对CaCu3Ti4O12性能的影响

传统的烧结法，经850℃、980℃预烧和1000℃-1125℃烧结制备了CaCu3Ti4O12巨介电常数陶瓷．通过X射线衍射（XRD）对体系进行了结晶性能和形貌测试，用阻抗分析仪对试样在50—300K范围内的介电性能进行了测试．研究结果表明：CaCu3Ti4O12的介电常数直接受材料的结晶程度、晶粒大小及致密度控制．通过改善预烧粉末先驱体的结晶程度、提高材料的晶粒尺寸和致密度、改善烧结样品的结晶程度可以获得性能优良的材料．结晶完整，晶粒尺寸大及致密度高的CaCu3Ti4O12在较大的温区范围具有高的介电常数．     

The effect of mixing-distribution misspecification in conjugate mixture models

Parametric mixture models are commonly used in the analysis of clustered data. Parametric families are specified for the conditional distribution of the response variable given a cluster-specific effect, and for the marginal distribution of the cluster-specific effects. This latter distribution is referred to as the mixing distribution. If the form of the mixing distribution is misspecified, then Bayesian and maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters associated with either distribution may be inconsistent. The magnitude of the asymptotic bias is investigated, using an approximation based on infinitesimal contamination of the mixing distribution. The approximation is useful when there is a closed-form expression for the marginal distribution of the response under the assumed mixing distribution, but not under the true mixing distribution. Typically this occurs when the assumed mixing distribution is conjugate, meaning that the conditional distribution of the cluster-specific parameter given the response variable belongs to the same parametric family as the mixing distribution.     

Policy simulations with a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy

In this paper, the results of various dynamic policy simulations are analyzed within the context of a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy. The model contains 35 equations and offers a consistent framework for policy analysis. It is considerably expanded on the side of the fiscal sector and usefully incorporates the interdependence between monetary and fiscal sectors and gives due attention to supply side considerations. Magnitudes of effects of sustained policy changes are analyzed for the period 1964–1965 to 1974–1975. Impact multipliers and elasticities are also analyzed. Government expenditures variables and deficit financing are shown to have substantial impact on the system whereas changes in tax-rates, discount-rates, and liquidity ratios for commercial banks are shown to have only a marginal impact. The model is used for exploring the growth potential of the economy in a forecast period of five years under alternative assumptions regarding policy options.