Coming of age

Those of us who study aging have the unique opportunity to live their subject matter. Whether we learn any personal lessons is a matter of our own reflectivity, but personal experience can make us far better scholars than can scholarship alone. As one ponders the life course, it is clear that a number of institutional influences, temporal patterning, and unexpected intervening variables are involved in the unfolding of one's life. Life-long institutional memberships furnish social capital that helps establish parameters for our personal experience, for how we view our personal trajectories and for our ability to cope with the aging process itself. But how to come to terms with unexpected occurrences that alter the anticipated futures we had in mind? Do our scholarly efforts and our experience come together in ways that enrich one or the other? These are the questions I explore in this personal essay.     

公公娶儿媳之法律思考

直系姻亲间能否结婚这一问题在我国现行法律规定上来看是没有疑问的,但在学理上仍然有探讨的必要性,在社会上、理论界对该问题都有不同看法,到底是保障当事人的婚姻自由权利还是维护社会伦理与社会利益,笔者在文中试图从几个方面对其进行论述并予评价,最终得出自己的判断。     

Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

论科学发展观与和平发展论的关系

科学发展观与和平发展论是我国现阶段对内、对外两大战略方针。就二者关系来说，科学发展观与和平发展论在本质要求上具有一致性，它们都体现以人为本，主旨都在于发展，都以追求“和谐”为目标；科学发展观是和平发展论的战略统领；和平发展论又是科学发展观的有力保障。这是实现中国崛起的伟大战略的一体两面，二者紧密依存，相辅相成。     

张竹坡小说创作论的主体间性

主体间性理论从新的视角揭示了文学的性质，即文学是主体间的存在方式。作为一种鲜活的审美体验的话语方式，张竹坡在《金瓶梅》评点中表现出了强烈而自觉的主体间性意识。围绕《金瓶梅》的创作过程，张竹坡揭示了作家在艺术虚构、生活体验、创作构思及艺术表达等阶段的主体间性，即作家必须与生活现象、文本做主体间的交流。张竹坡指出：《金瓶梅》作者“入世最深”，依“情理”、“借海扬波”、“依山点石”，以不同的“笔法”、“犯而不犯”、“白描”等艺术表达技法塑造人物形象，借小说以“泄愤”。张竹坡小说创作论的主体间性极具现代意义和独特价值。     

金文兵器饰件考释二则

本文在吸取和借鉴前人说法的基础上,结合考古实物资料,从形音义方面对西周金文中传统释读为＂彤欮＂、＂厚必＂的二物进行了讨论。将前者改释为＂彤杆＂,即＂涂红漆的箭杆＂;对释后者为＂緱必＂的观点加以补证说明。     

Inference for general parametric functions in box‐Cox‐type transformation models

The authors propose a simple but general method of inference for a parametric function of the Box‐Cox‐type transformation model. Their approach is built upon the classical normal theory but takes parameter estimation into account. It quickly leads to test statistics and confidence intervals for a linear combination of scaled or unsealed regression coefficients, as well as for the survivor function and marginal effects on the median or other quantité functions of an original response. The authors show through simulations that the finite‐sample performance of their method is often superior to the delta method, and that their approach is robust to mild departures from normality of error distributions. They illustrate their approach with a numerical example.     

Dynamic Pricing to Minimize Maximum Regret

We consider a dynamic pricing problem that involves selling a given inventory of a single product over a short, two‐period selling season. There is insufficient time to replenish inventory during this season, hence sales are made entirely from inventory. The demand for the product is a stochastic, nonincreasing function of price. We assume interval uncertainty for demand, that is, knowledge of upper and lower bounds but not a probability distribution, with no correlation between the two periods. We minimize the maximum total regret over the two periods that results from the pricing decisions. We consider a dynamic model where the decision maker chooses the price for each period contingent on the remaining inventory at the beginning of the period, and a static model where the decision maker chooses the prices for both periods at the beginning of the first period. Both models can be solved by a polynomial time algorithm that solves systems of linear inequalities. Our computational study demonstrates that the prices generated by both our models are insensitive to errors in estimating the demand intervals. Our dynamic model outperforms our static model and two classical approaches that do not use demand probability distributions, when evaluated by maximum regret, average relative regret, variability, and risk measures. Further, our dynamic model generates a total expected revenue which closely approximates that of a maximum expected revenue approach which requires demand probability distributions.     

从《中国新史》看费正清的中国观

美国的汉学家对中国的认识是认识中国的视角之一。费正清是公认的美国中国学的创始人,他以历史学家的身份研究中国,并从文化的角度研究中国历史,从而形成了他的中国观。《中国新史》是他最后一部作品,也是他中国观的总结。费氏的中国观具有三个主要特点:以考古学领域发现为佐证,强调中国文化的连续性和同一性;以中国历史为背景,强调中国文化的特殊性;从美中关系的发展出发,强调中国文化的重要性。     

人民公社动员体制的利益机制和实现手段

在人民公社时期,为了使农村服从为工业发展提供积累这一社会目标体系,国家采取了一系列刚性措施:在经济上,国家以统购统销的计划经济为制度性基础,通过土地等生产资料集体化甚至生活资料的集体控制等手段,迫使农民对"集体"经济依附;在政治上,国家行政权力通过农民所依附的集体组织和各种党群团体深入到了农村最基层,并用强制性户籍制度对农民进行人身管制;在思想上,大力宣传以阶级斗争和权力神化为主要内容的奴化文化,并以政治运动的方式对反叛势力进行镇压,使整个社会处于高压之中。