Aggregation theorems and multidimensional stochastic choice models

In many choice situations, the options are multidimensional. Numerous probabilistic models have been developed for such choices between multidimensional options and for the parallel choices determined by one or more components of such options. In this paper, it is assumed that a functional relation exists between the choice probabilities over the multidimensional options and the choice probabilities over the associated component unidimensional options. It is shown that if that function satisfies a marginalization property then it is essentially an arithmetic mean, and if the function satisfies a likelihood independence property then it is a weighted geometric mean. The results are related to those on the combination of expert opinion, and various probabilistic models in the choice literature are shown to have the geometric mean form.     

Toward a Strategic Foundation for Rational Expectations Equilibrium

A step toward a strategic foundation for rational expectations equilibrium is taken by considering a double auction with n buyers and m sellers with interdependent values and affiliated private information. If there are sufficiently many buyers and sellers, and their bids are restricted to a sufficiently fine discrete set of prices, then, generically, there is an equilibrium in nondecreasing bidding functions that is arbitrarily close to the unique fully revealing rational expectations equilibrium of the limit market with unrestricted bids and a continuum of agents. In particular, the large double‐auction equilibrium is almost efficient and almost fully aggregates the agents' information.     

临空经济对区域经济发展的影响研究

结合上海具备航运中心、航空枢纽双重建设目标,及其作为全国唯一＂一市两场＂的城市发展临空经济的构想,提出上海临空经济发展应做到促进临空经济与上海区域经济的耦合发展;推动产业升级;推进临空经济区的产业规划。     

An Insurance Model for Risk Management of Process Facilities

Most existing risk management models for process industries do not consider the effect of insurance coverage, which results in an overestimation of overall risk. A model is presented in this article to study the effect of insurance coverage of health, safety, environmental, and business risks. The effect of insurance recovery is modeled through the application of adjustment factors by considering the stochastic factors affecting insurance recovery. The insurance contract's conditions, deductibles, and policy limits are considered in developing the insurance recovery adjustment factors. Copula functions and Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop the distribution of the aggregate loss by considering the dependence among loss classes. A case study is used to demonstrate both the practical application of the proposed insurance model to improve management decisions, and the mitigating effect of insurance to minimize the residual risk.     

金融聚集与金融中心发展之逻辑——兼论海西金融中心建设思路

从为交易服务的角度研究金融聚集和金融中心发展的逻辑,认为：金融聚集随着交易与贸易中心的转移而变迁,是交易信息汇聚、交易制度演进、交易市场化的结果,金融工具的标准化和证券化是金融聚集的核心手段,降低交易成本是促进金融聚集与发展的根本途径,金融定价技术和制度安排则是金融发展的信心基础。从金融分工的逻辑看,当前国际金融中心体系的发展已走过了简单的聚集模式,呈现出＂圈层＂分工发展特征。海西金融中心建设应遵循金融聚集和金融中心发展规律,建设专业性区域金融中心,以融入全国仍至亚太金融大格局的发展。     

Ecological Bias: Use of Maximum-Entropy Approximations

The focus of geographical studies in epidemiology has recently moved towards looking for effects of exposures based on data taken at local levels of aggregation (i.e. small areas). This paper investigates how regression coefficients measuring covariate effects at the point level are modified under aggregation. Changing the level of aggregation can lead to completely different conclusions about exposure–effect relationships, a phenomenon often referred to as ecological bias. With partial knowledge of the within‐area distribution of the exposure variable, the notion of maximum entropy can be used to approximate that part of the distribution that is unknown. From the approximation, an expression for the ecological bias is obtained; simulations and an example show that the maximum‐entropy approximation is often better than other commonly used approximations.     

论电视叙事时间的艺术性处理

本文讨论电视叙事时间的艺术性问题,认为时间畸变是电视叙事艺术表现的基本的手段,也可以说是电视叙事的中心环节。情节是在逻辑的基础上结构起来的首尾统一的故事,情节是故事的有序序列。由于预叙这一叙述手段的丰富,叙述时间与故事时间在电视叙事中聚合。     

保税港区对区域经济影响效应的实证研究——以青岛前湾保税港区为例

通过对保税港区促进腹地经济发展作用机理的分析以及对青岛前湾保税港区与国内其他主要保税港区的比较,可以发现,二者在财政收入和单位面积产出方面显示出明显的差距。运用聚集度、开放度、协整分析等方法研究青岛前湾保税港区对区域经济发展的影响效应,结果表明,保税港区的GDP和进出口额对青岛市的经济聚集度基本呈现出逐年增长的趋势,保税港区的对方开放度显著高于其腹地的对外开放度,青岛市GDP与保税港区的进出口总额、青岛港的货物吞吐量存在着一个长期稳定的关系。