Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.     

农民权益得失与城市化进程的关系分析

城市化是人类社会发展的必然趋势,也是一个国家走向发达的必由之路。在我国城市化高速发展进程中,如何扬长避短,对城市化涉及的核心群体——农民权益的“得”与“失”是不容不认真考虑的问题。在城市化中,农民总体上属于弱势群体,如果政府及相关部门不能及时采取有效措施,其“失”甚至可能更重于“得”。城市化的社会经济特点、强势群体的掠夺以及政府利益介入、农民自身的缺失等都有可能成为农民权益“失”的原因。政府高度重视城市化与农民受益的一致性,并通过立法规范土地利益的分配制度,进而提高农村的聚集效应、提高农民的自身素质等是城市化建设健康发展的必要保障。     

Insights into the appropriate level of disaggregation for efficient time series model forecasting

This paper provides a potentially valuable insight on how to assess if the forecasts from an autoregressive moving average model based on aggregated data could be substantially improved through disaggregation. It is argued that, theoretically, the absence of moving average (MA) terms indicates that no forecasting efficiency improvements can be achieved through disaggregation. In practice, it is found that there is a strong correlation between the statistical significance of the MA component in the aggregate model and the magnitude of the forecast mean square error (MSE) decreases that can be achieved through disaggregation. That is, if a model includes significant MA terms, the forecast MSE improvements that may be gained from disaggregation could be substantial. Otherwise, they are more likely to be relatively small or non-existent.     

Persuasion: An experimental study of team decision making

This paper studies persuasion within teams and investigates why teams commonly take, by some measures, better decisions than individuals. The analysis is based on data from electronic communication within teams of two players. Thanks to the experimental design, changes of an individual’s decision can be attributed to the content of the team partner’s message. The results for knowledge-related and strategic problems show that individuals’ decisions change upon receiving more informative and sophisticated arguments and remain the same otherwise. This individual behavior is an essential part of the information aggregation in teams and can explain the advantage of teams in decision making and in games.     

语言多属性决策的目标规划模型

研究了只有部分属性权重信息、属性值以语言变量或不确定语言变量形式给出且决策者对方案有偏好信息的语言多属性决策问题.给出了语言变量和不确定语言变量的运算法则,以及不确定语言变量之间比较的可能度公式,定义了语言变量的偏离度概念.在属性值以1)语言变量和2)不确定语言变量,这两种形式给出的情形下,分别建立了一个基于偏离度的目标规划模型,并通过求解这两种模型分别获得相应的属性权重.然后对于情形1),利用语言加权平均(LWA)算子,对语言决策信息进行加权集成,继而对方案进行排序和择优;对于情形2),利用不确定语言加权平均(ULWA)算子,对不确定语言决策信息进行加权集成,并利用可能度公式构造可能度矩阵(互补判断矩阵),继而利用互补判断矩阵排序公式对决策方案进行排序和择优.最后进行了实例分析.     

一类高阶正则左定问题的谱

通过分析左定与右定问题的关系,应用谱曲线和高阶右定问题的谱,研究了一类高阶左定问题谱的特性及谱对给定参数的可微性．     

科技型人才聚集环境及聚集效应分析（六）——组织环境对科技型人才聚集效应的影响分析

组织环境是科技型人才聚集环境的重要组成部分,对人才聚集效应的产生和提升起着重要的影响作用。从组织环境入手,分析了纽织环境对科技型人才聚集效应的影响因素,认为组织结构、组织机制、组织激励、组织文化对科技型人才聚集效应具有重要影响,提出了优化组织环境的对策,以提升科技型人才的群体聚集效应。     

关于带权Hardy不等式

本文得到了Hardy算子Tf(x)=integral from o to x f(t)dt从空间L~p(R_+,vdx)到L~q(R_+,Udx)有界的权函数对(u,v)的特征,其中1≤q相似文献   

一个非线性偏微分方程广义解的存在性

本文是利用h-半连续的单调算子的理论证明一个非线性偏微分方程解的存在性。