发电厂海勒式空冷系统的变工况特性

本文建立了海勒式空冷系统的数学模型，编制了该系统的变工况模拟程序，以２００ＭＷ海勒系统为例作了实时模拟计算，计算结果与实际运行数据相当接近，揭示了海勒系统变工况运行的基本特征．     

从《川魂——四川抗战档案史料选编》析1940年日军空袭重庆

日本为彻底摧毁中国军民的抗战意志,1940年对战时中国陪都重庆进行了疯狂轰炸。日军为此制定了“101作战计划”,在空袭中混合使用了集团轰炸、连续轰炸、照明轰炸以及投入零式航载战斗机的“零式”战略,给重庆造成 巨大损失,外国驻渝机构也未能幸免。空袭后,重庆的救赈工作比较及时,积极防卫,显示了重庆人民“愈炸愈强”的战斗信念,粉碎了日军炸垮重庆的野心,也在一定程度上实现了中国抗战“以空间换时间”、“持久消耗”的战略方针。     

基于网络的出版社管理信息系统的设计与实现

以开发的出版社管理信息系统项目为背景,对出版社的业务流程进行全面的分析,并以此需求为出发点,探讨了出版社业务系统可行的解决方案。     

Spike-and-slab type variable selection in the Cox proportional hazards model for high-dimensional features

In this paper, we develop a variable selection framework with the spike-and-slab prior distribution via the hazard function of the Cox model. Specifically, we consider the transformation of the score and information functions for the partial likelihood function evaluated at the given data from the parameter space into the space generated by the logarithm of the hazard ratio. Thereby, we reduce the nonlinear complexity of the estimation equation for the Cox model and allow the utilization of a wider variety of stable variable selection methods. Then, we use a stochastic variable search Gibbs sampling approach via the spike-and-slab prior distribution to obtain the sparsity structure of the covariates associated with the survival outcome. Additionally, we conduct numerical simulations to evaluate the finite-sample performance of our proposed method. Finally, we apply this novel framework on lung adenocarcinoma data to find important genes associated with decreased survival in subjects with the disease.     

Risk filtering, ranking, and management framework using hierarchical holographic modeling.

This paper contributes a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risk scenarios of a large-scale system. Qualitative screening of scenarios and classes of scenarios is appropriate initially, while quantitative assessments may be applied once the set of all scenarios (hundreds) has been prioritized in several phases. The eight-phase methodology is described in detail and is applied to operations other than war. The eight phases are as follows: Phase I, Scenario Identification-A hierarchical holographic model (HHM) is developed to describe the system's "as planned" or "success" scenario. Phase II, Scenario Filtering-The risk scenarios identified in Phase I are filtered according to the responsibilities and interests of the current system user. Phase III, Bi-Criteria Filtering and Ranking. Phase IV, Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Phase V, Quantitative Ranking-We continue to filter and rank scenarios based on quantitative and qualitative matrix scales of likelihood and consequence; and ordinal response to system resiliency, robustness, redundancy. Phase VI, Risk Management is performed, involving identification of management options for dealing with the filtered scenarios, and estimating the cost, performance benefits, and risk reduction of each. Phase VII, Safeguarding Against Missing Critical Items--We examine the performance of the options selected in Phase VI against the scenarios previously filtered out during Phases II to V. Phase VIII, Operational Feedback-We use the experience and information gained during application to refine the scenario filtering and decision processes in earlier phases. These eight phases reflect a philosophical approach rather than a mechanical methodology. In this philosophy, the filtering and ranking of discrete scenarios is viewed as a precursor to, rather than a substitute for, consideration of the totality of all risk scenarios.     

基于Agent的组织建模研究

针对复杂组织的创新设计问题,通过对结构化和面向对象组织建模方法的缺点分析,将Agent技术引入组织的分析与建模中,提出了基于Agent的组织建模与分析方法ABOAMM。ABOAMM方法不仅借助Agent的特性具备了对大粒度组织单元和多元组织结构的描述能力,而且通过其工作流程的规划使其克服了其他Agent分析方法组织建模能力的不足,应用ABOAMM方法对某石化企业e-维护组织进行了设计,验证了方法的优越性。     

组织学习及其作用机制的实证研究

组织学习的结构和作用机制是组织学习研究中的两个迫切需要解决的基本问题.根据访谈、编码和预试,对来自全国不同地区43家企业的982名管理者和员工的问卷调查数据进行了分析.探索性和验证性因素分析结果表明,中国企业的组织学习包括组织间学习、组织层学习、集体学习、个体学习、利用式学习、开发式学习六个因素.多层线性模型(HLM:hierarchi-cal linearmodeling)结果表明,组织学习集体层面的四个维度通过个体学习影响员工的满意度和情感承诺;在组织层学习水平高和利用式学习水平低的组织里面,满意度、情感承诺对离职意向的预测力更强.多层回归分析结果表明,组织学习通过组织创新来影响组织财务绩效.这些结果对组织学习的研究和管理实践都有很重要的启发.     

Use of Advances in Technology for Maritime Risk Assessment

The maritime industry is moving toward a "goal-setting" risk-based regime. This opens the way to safety engineers to explore and exploit flexible and advanced risk modeling and decision-making approaches in the design and operation processes. In this article, following a brief review of the current status of maritime risk assessment, a design/operation selection framework and a design/operation optimization framework are outlined. A general discussion of control engineering techniques and their application to risk modeling and decision making is given. Four novel risk modeling and decision-making approaches are then outlined with illustrative examples to demonstrate their use. Such approaches may be used as alternatives to facilitate risk modeling and decision making in situations where conventional techniques cannot be appropriately applied. Finally, recommendations on further exploitation of advances in general engineering and technology are suggested with respect to risk modeling and decision making.     

客户忠诚决定因素实证研究

在现有研究成果的基础上提出了一个描述客户忠诚与其决定因素之间关系的综合理论 模型. 选择中国IT 分销行业为背景,聘请专业调研公司以上门走访的方式收集了367 个企业 客户的样本数据,然后利用结构方程建模(SEM) 软件EQS5. 7b ,对该模型作了检验. 检验结果 表明:客户认知价值、客户满意、客户信任和转移成本是客户忠诚的四个决定因素,其中客户认 知价值是核心决定因素,对客户忠诚有着最大的影响. 讨论了实证结论对企业CRM 实践的指 导意义.     

成分数据的多元回归建模方法研究

在社会、经济、技术等许多领域的数据分析中,成分数据(compositional data)是一种应用十分广泛的数据类型,可以被用来反映诸如投资结构、产业结构、居民消费结构等问题.将成分数据的logratio变换方法与偏最小二乘路径分析相结合,提出在因变量是成分数据,而与之相关的若干个自变量也都是成分数据的情况下,建立了多元线性回归模型的方法.该建模方法可以满足成分数据的定和约束,克服成分数据中完全多重共线性对建模的不良影响,并且突出成分数据主题含义在建模中的作用和意义.作为案例,应用所提出的方法,采用北京市三类产业的投资、GDP以及就业的结构数据,建立了三者之间的回归模型,进一步说明了多元成分数据回归建模的工作过程及其应用价值.