Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

Modelling heterogeneous space–time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis

Summary. Earthquake intensities are modelled as a function of previous activity whose specific form is based on established empirical laws in seismology, but whose parameter values can vary from place to place. This model is used for characterizing regional features of seismic activities in and around Japan, and also for exploring regions where the actual seismicity rate systematically deviates from that of the modelled rate.     

语言形式教学与第二语言习得关系研究概述

第二语言课堂教学的最终目的是促成第二语言的习得,而学习者的第二语言习得结果又为第二语言教学提供指导。本文对20世纪60年代以来关于第二语言课堂教学中的语言形式教学与第二语言习得的关系的研究进展情况作一概述,期望能给我们的外语教学研究以启示。     

提高网络环境下的检索效率

围绕查全率、查准率这两个重要指标对网络环境下影响检索效率的因素进行了分析,提出提高网络环境下检索效率的一些方法,以便更好地服务于用户.     

基于核心能力的企业过程再造

阐述了企业过程再造(BPR)和核心能力的内涵及本质,分析了核心过程与核心能力二者之间的关系,指出企业过程再造不能脱离核心能力这一本质,BPR本质上应该是基于核心能力的再造。给出了基于核心能力实施BPR的6个具体步骤:即识别核心能力,识别核心过程,定义经营业绩,找出问题,确定方案和实施方案。     

论美术新课程教学过程的特征

新的《全日制义务教育美术课程标准(实验稿)》,要求美术教育以发展学生的艺术素养、人文素养及促进学生的发展为主要目标。新标准要求下的美术教育与传统美术教育相比,教学过程具有学生中心性、综合性、过程性、实践性、开放性、创造性、师生互动性、美育性、兴趣性和个性性等新的特征。     

非典与中国的电子商务

探讨了非典对于中国电子商务的影响以及电子商务在此期间发挥出的作用、存在的不足，进而提出了关于如何促进中国电子商务进一步发展的思考和建议．     

网络防火墙技术应用分析

介绍了防火墙的概念、组成原理及几种典型的防火墙系统,对如何加强防火墙的防护作用进行了分析。     

Empirical Non-Parametric Control Charts: Estimation Effects and Corrections

Owing to the extreme quantiles involved, standard control charts are very sensitive to the effects of parameter estimation and non-normality. More general parametric charts have been devised to deal with the latter complication and corrections have been derived to compensate for the estimation step, both under normal and parametric models. The resulting procedures offer a satisfactory solution over a broad range of underlying distributions. However, situations do occur where even such a large model is inadequate and nothing remains but to consider non- parametric charts. In principle, these form ideal solutions, but the problem is that huge sample sizes are required for the estimation step. Otherwise the resulting stochastic error is so large that the chart is very unstable, a disadvantage that seems to outweigh the advantage of avoiding the model error from the parametric case. Here we analyse under what conditions non-parametric charts actually become feasible alternatives for their parametric counterparts. In particular, corrected versions are suggested for which a possible change point is reached at sample sizes that are markedly less huge (but still larger than the customary range). These corrections serve to control the behaviour during in-control (markedly wrong outcomes of the estimates only occur sufficiently rarely). The price for this protection will clearly be some loss of detection power during out-of-control. A change point comes in view as soon as this loss can be made sufficiently small.     

论搜寻品假冒伪劣的成因及其市场影响

搜寻品假冒伪劣是指消费者主动选择购买假冒伪劣产品。其形成原因是这类假冒伪劣产品相对于“正品”的巨大价格优势。它虽然对假冒伪劣产品的生产者、销售者和消费者有利 ,但不利于新产品的研发和生产 ,会妨碍产品质量的提高乃至造成市场上产品整体质量的降低 ,从而也损害消费者的长远利益。