“微信热”背后高校思想政治教育的冷思考

大学生是微信最忠实的拥趸,“微信热”不仅给大学生的工作和生活带来了诸多影响,同时也给高校思想政治教育工作带来了严峻挑战。微信的不可控性,使高校思想政治教育环境趋于复杂;微信立体化的社交形式,使高校思想政治教育方法受到挑战;微信的虚拟性,使高校思想政治教育过程难度加大;微信信息的“碎片化”,削弱了高校思想政治教育实效性。在“微信热”背景下,探讨其产生的深层原因,科学应对微信带来的挑战,运用微信进行“微创新”、发挥“微功能”,对大学生思想政治教育意义重大。     

“互联网+”时代高校教育与管理的变革与展望

“互联网+”时代高校传统教育与管理面临着前所未有的新形势和新挑战,在“互联网+”和高校信息化建设的时代背景下,高校必须要把握变革机遇、重塑管理理念观念、树立互联网思维,准确理解“互联网+”校园的理念和内涵,将新一代信息技术充分应用并深度融入高校教育教学、管理服务中,以构建智能化、智慧型校园为切入点,推进高校信息化校园建设,促进我国高等教育转型升级和一流大学、一流学科建设.     

Inference in Semi‐Parametric Dynamic Models for Repeated Count Data

This paper deals with a longitudinal semi‐parametric regression model in a generalised linear model setup for repeated count data collected from a large number of independent individuals. To accommodate the longitudinal correlations, we consider a dynamic model for repeated counts which has decaying auto‐correlations as the time lag increases between the repeated responses. The semi‐parametric regression function involved in the model contains a specified regression function in some suitable time‐dependent covariates and a non‐parametric function in some other time‐dependent covariates. As far as the inference is concerned, because the non‐parametric function is of secondary interest, we estimate this function consistently using the independence assumption‐based well‐known quasi‐likelihood approach. Next, the proposed longitudinal correlation structure and the estimate of the non‐parametric function are used to develop a semi‐parametric generalised quasi‐likelihood approach for consistent and efficient estimation of the regression effects in the parametric regression function. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimation approach is examined through an intensive simulation study based on both large and small samples. Both balanced and unbalanced cluster sizes are incorporated in the simulation study. The asymptotic performances of the estimators are given. The estimation methodology is illustrated by reanalysing the well‐known health care utilisation data consisting of counts of yearly visits to a physician by 180 individuals for four years and several important primary and secondary covariates.     

A win ratio approach to comparing continuous non‐normal outcomes in clinical trials

Clinical trials are often designed to compare continuous non‐normal outcomes. The conventional statistical method for such a comparison is a non‐parametric Mann–Whitney test, which provides a P‐value for testing the hypothesis that the distributions of both treatment groups are identical, but does not provide a simple and straightforward estimate of treatment effect. For that, Hodges and Lehmann proposed estimating the shift parameter between two populations and its confidence interval (CI). However, such a shift parameter does not have a straightforward interpretation, and its CI contains zero in some cases when Mann–Whitney test produces a significant result. To overcome the aforementioned problems, we introduce the use of the win ratio for analysing such data. Patients in the new and control treatment are formed into all possible pairs. For each pair, the new treatment patient is labelled a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’ if it is known who had the more favourable outcome. The win ratio is the total number of winners divided by the total numbers of losers. A 95% CI for the win ratio can be obtained using the bootstrap method. Statistical properties of the win ratio statistic are investigated using two real trial data sets and six simulation studies. Results show that the win ratio method has about the same power as the Mann–Whitney method. We recommend the use of the win ratio method for estimating the treatment effect (and CI) and the Mann–Whitney method for calculating the P‐value for comparing continuous non‐Normal outcomes when the amount of tied pairs is small. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of some ruin-related quantities in a Markov-modulated risk model

In this paper, we study the joint Laplace transform and probability generating function of some random quantities that occur in each environment state by the time of ruin in a Markov-modulated risk process. These quantities include the duration spent in each state, the number of claims and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time of ruin. Explicit formulae for the joint transforms, given the initial surplus, and the initial and terminal environment states, are expressed in terms of a matrix version of the scale function. Moments and covariances of these ruin-related quantities are obtained and numerical illustrations are presented. The joint transform of the duration spent in each state, the number of claims, and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time the surplus attains a certain level are also investigated.     

Studying Complexity of Model-based Clustering

Cluster analysis is a popular statistics and computer science technique commonly used in various areas of research. In this article, we investigate factors that can influence clustering performance in the model-based clustering framework. The four factors considered are the level of overlap, number of clusters, number of dimensions, and sample size. Through a comprehensive simulation study, we investigate model-based clustering in different settings. As a measure of clustering performance, we employ three popular classification indices capable of reflecting the degree of agreement in two partitioning vectors, thus making the comparison between the true and estimated classification vectors possible. In addition to studying clustering complexity, the performance of the three classification measures is evaluated.     

中国农村民间借贷市场融资约束环境下利率定价模型分析——以广东农村实地调查数据为例

通过对广东农户民间借贷行为实地调查的问卷进行数据分析,了解农村民间借贷中的资金供求关系,发现存在的融资约束问题,进而对融资约束环境下民间借贷资金利率定价过程进行实证分析;着重考察农村民间借贷利率受公共信息和私人信息影响的程度,从借款人和贷款人的角度分别建立定价模型进行经验分析。结果显示,定价模型在F检验1%水平上显著,其他模型具有R2的统计显著性;反映借款用途的变量在10%水平上显著,其他变量均在5%水平上显著。这说明该市场利率能够反映公共信息的影响,借款人和贷款人的利率定价也反映了各自私人信息中相关风险和财务能力因素的影响,得到的经验结论主要是:第一,农村民间借贷市场是自主交易的金融市场;第二,其利率定价过程基本市场化。     

Cultural capital or relative risk aversion? Two mechanisms for educational inequality compared1

In this paper we empirically examined two explanatory mechanisms for educational inequality: cultural reproduction and relative risk aversion, using survey data taken from secondary school pupils in Amsterdam. Cultural reproduction theory seeks to explain class variations in schooling by cultural differences between social classes. Relative risk aversion theory argues that educational inequalities can be understood by between-class variation in the necessity of pursuing education at branching points in order to avoid downward mobility. We showed that class variations in early demonstrated ability are for a substantial part cultural: cultural capital - measured by parental involvement in highbrow culture - affected school performance at the primary and secondary level. However, relative risk aversion - operationalized by being concerned with downward mobility - strongly affects schooling ambitions, whereas cultural capital had no effect. Thus, we conclude that 'primary effects' of social origin on schooling outcomes are manifested through cultural capital and not through relative risk aversion (in addition to other potential sources of class variations such as genetics). Relative risk aversion, and not cultural capital, affects schooling ambitions, which is relevant for our understanding of secondary effects.     

Assessing the effects of land use and land cover patterns on thermal conditions using landscape metrics in city of Indianapolis,United States

Direct applications of remote sensing thermal infrared (TIR) data in landscape ecological research are rare due to limitations in the sensors, calibration, and difficulty in interpretation. Currently there is a general lack of methodology for examining the relationship between land surface temperatures (LST) derived from TIR data and landscape patterns extracted from optical sensors. A separation of landscapes into values directly related to their scale and signature is a key step. In this study, a Landsat ETM+ image of Indianapolis, Unites States, acquired on June 22, 2000, was spectrally unmixed (using spectral mixture analysis, SMA) into fraction endmembers of green vegetation, soil, high albedo, and low albedo. Impervious surface was then computed from the high and low albedo images. A hybrid classification procedure was developed to classify the fraction images into seven land use and land cover (LULC) classes. Using the fractional images, the landscape composition and pattern were examined. Next, pixel-based LST measurements were correlated with the landscape fractional components to investigate LULC based relationships between LST and impervious surface and green vegetation fractions. An examination of the relationship between the LULC and LST maps with landscape metrics was finally conducted to deepen understanding of their interactions. Results indicate that SMA-derived fraction images were effective for quantifying the urban morphology and for providing reliable measurements of biophysical variables. LST was found to be positively correlated with impervious surface fraction but negatively correlated with green vegetation fraction. Each temperature zone was associated with a dominant LULC category. Further research should be directed to the theoretical and applied implications of describing such relationships between LULC patterns and urban thermal conditions.

论全球化时代的阿拉伯妇女问题

本文以2002～2005年的《阿拉伯国家人类发展报告》为基础,分析了阿拉伯国家长期落后的主要原因.作者认为,男女平等是构建民主社会的基本条件,处于全球化时代的阿拉伯国家之所以社会发展严重滞后,主要是因为阿拉伯妇女问题没有得到妥善解决.此外,作者还就如何解决阿拉伯妇女问题提出了建议.