优化合芜蚌试验区技术创新扩散环境

合芜蚌自主创新综合配套改革试验区的建设是安徽省经济发展战略的重大调整,也是国家综合配套改革的重要组成部分。依据技术扩散观点,通过对技术扩散环境的系统分析,结合合芜蚌试验区建设现状,提出优化技术创新扩散环境促进试验区建设的若干建议。     

免费商品对互补产品扩散的影响

本文基于互补产品扩散模型,在考虑价格策略以及重复购买与批量购买的消费者行为下,建立了免费商品赠送对互补产品扩散影响的优化模型群。通过模拟计算,分析结果表明免费商品的赠送对互补产品的扩散有促进作用,同时赠送互补产品优于仅赠送其中一种产品。在产品引入前进行免费商品赠送的边际效应要高于在其他时期赠送,形成"首期赠送效应"。当消费者有批量购买行为时,企业值得赠送更多的免费商品来提高消费者对产品的了解程度,以获得更高的利润。在对首期赠送水平的参数灵敏度分析后,给出了扩散过程中各个参数选取对于赠样水平的影响趋势与范围。在此基础上,为企业在实际促销决策中给出了具体的应用步骤。     

College Women's Gynecological Health Care Practices and Preferences

Abstract

Panic disorder is characterized by recurrent, sudden, often unprovoked attacks of intense, diffuse autonomic discharge accompanied by severe anxiety as distinguished from ordinary generalized anxiety. Recent research indicates a biochemical abnormality that predisposes some individuals to the disorder, which generally begins in young adulthood and affects women twice as frequently as men. Untreated panic disorder follows a chronic, fluctuating course. Complications include hypochondriasis, anticipatory anxiety, phobic avoidance and agoraphobia, abuse of alcohol and sedative drugs, and depression.

Diagnosis is complicated by patients' complaints of physical rather than emotional symptoms. Workups can be avoided if the physician considers the diagnosis in apparently healthy young adults who present with episodic cardiac, gastrointestinal, neurologic, and/or respiratory symptoms. The physician needs to be able to distinguish the symptoms of panic disorder from those of ordinary anxiety and also to rule out medical conditions that mimic panic disorder.

Neither conventional benzodiazepines nor psychotherapy alone is very effective in stopping panic attacks, but alprazolam, imipramine, and phenelzine are all highly effective. Alprazolam has fewer troublesome side effects, but patience and perseverance are necessary to reach therapeutic levels with all three drugs. Inadequate dosage is the most common cause of treatment failure. Most patients do well once their attacks are controlled and do not require close follow-up. Patient education is an important part of long-term management because relapses are common.     

气象灾害事件正式信息扩散模型研究

对气象灾害事件信息的研究是解构气象灾害事件的重要路径。依据信息传播的渠道和主体,可以将气象灾害事件信息划分为正式信息和非正式信息。气象灾害事件正式信息的扩散路径相对固定,发布具有可控性,但是正式传播渠道不能保证其真实性。气象灾害正式信息在扩散过程中具有非线性、稀释性和支离性等特征。在此基础上构建的气象灾害事件正式信息扩散模型表明,对气象灾害信息持开放态度,注重信息扩散方式的创新,加强对专业性信息的通俗化处理,重视对公众的培训和教育以及选择合适的气象灾害信息发布策略,将有助于引导信息扩散,优化气象灾害事件的应急处置。     

二维Lotka-Volterra竞争扩散系统的渐近传播速度

通过上下解方法及比较原理,得到了二维扩散Lotka-Volterra竞争系统的渐近传播速度.     

互联网扩散与经济增长的关系研究——基于我国31个省份面板数据的实证检验

根据2003—2011年9年间我国31个省份互联网普及率和人均实际GDP的数据,在单位根检验和协整检验基础上,建立了个体时点双向固定效应模型,对互联网扩散与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：互联网对我国经济增长具有促进作用,这种促进作用在2007年以后逐渐显著;互联网普及率每提高10%,人均实际GDP提高大约1.38%;由于各地工业化水平等发展基础的差异,互联网对地区经济增长的影响程度呈现出明显的区域差异;通过建立滞后效应模型发现,互联网对经济增长的滞后作用在第5年达到最大。     

Child Welfare Workers' Adoption of Decision Support Technology

Child welfare workers must process complex information in deciding to refer clients to appropriate mental health services. Decision support systems have been demonstrated in other fields to be an important tool, yet little research has been done in child welfare. This study focused on the adoption of a specific decision support system into child welfare practice. Quantitative analysis was used to demonstrate the diffusion of innovation process among a sample of state child welfare workers, while qualitative analysis was used to explain the facilitators and barriers to decision support systems adoption. Results indicate that for decision support systems to be widely adopted in child welfare practice, they should be integrated into the referral system and include workers' knowledge and experiences with referral resources. For successful adoption, decision support systems need to respect the natural logic and flow of worker interaction as well as organizational constraints.     

The Policy Transfer Model

ABSTRACT

“New” social welfare policies are often actually policies borrowed from other states or nations. This paper reviews the recent theoretical developments in understanding the processes of policy transfer and presents a “policy transfer” model that can be a useful heuristic tool for social workers engaged in policy making. It discusses how the field of social work can benefit from understanding the factors underlying successful and unsuccessful policy transfer, and argues for the inclusion of the study of policy transfer in social welfare policy courses.     

A Sales Forecast Model for Short‐Life‐Cycle Products: New Releases at Blockbuster

We develop, in this article, a sales model for movie and game products at Blockbuster. The model assumes that there are three sales components: the first is from consumers who have already committed to purchasing (or renting) a product (e.g., based on promotion of, or exposure to, the product prior to its launch); the second comes from consumers who are potential buyers of the product; and the third comes from either a networking effect on closely tied (as in a social group) potential buyers from previous buyers (in the case of movie rental and all retail products) or re‐rents (in the case of game rental). In addition, we explicitly formulate into our model dynamic interactions between these sales components, both within and across sales periods. This important feature is motivated by realism, and it significantly contributes to the accuracy of our model. The model is thoroughly tested against sales data for rental and retail products from Blockbuster. Our empirical results show that the model offers excellent fit to actual sales activity. We also demonstrate that the model is capable of delivering reasonable sales forecasts based solely on environmental data (e.g., theatrical sales, studio, genre, MPAA ratings, etc.) and actual first‐period sales. Accurate sales forecasts can lead to significant cost savings. In particular, it can improve the retail operations at Blockbuster by determining appropriate order quantities of products, which is critical in effective inventory management (i.e., it can reduce the extent of over‐stocking and under‐stocking). While our model is developed specifically for product sales at Blockbuster, we believe that with context‐dependent modifications, our modeling approach could also provide a reasonable basis for the study of sales for other short‐Life‐Cycle products.     

基于Logistic函数的互补关系创新产品的扩散叠加模型研究

运用Logistic函数构建了创新产品扩散叠加模型及相互共生模型,以分析不完全竞争条件下互补关系创新产品的扩散问题;在此基础上,利用平衡点稳定性分析法,计算了在时间变量不断变化的情况下,创新产品扩散叠加的演化趋势和扩散叠加模型的平衡点,并对平衡点的稳定性进行了分析。