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21.
This work presents a study about the smoothness attained by the methods more frequently used to choose the smoothing parameter in the context of splines: Cross Validation, Generalized Cross Validation, and corrected Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria, implemented with Penalized Least Squares. It is concluded that the amount of smoothness strongly depends on the length of the series and on the type of underlying trend, while the presence of seasonality even though statistically significant is less relevant. The intrinsic variability of the series is not statistically significant and its effect is taken into account only through the smoothing parameter. 相似文献
22.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(3):207-216
In this article, the least squares (LS) estimates of the parameters of periodic autoregressive (PAR) models are investigated for various distributions of error terms via Monte-Carlo simulation. Beside the Gaussian distribution, this study covers the exponential, gamma, student-t, and Cauchy distributions. The estimates are compared for various distributions via bias and MSE criterion. The effect of other factors are also examined as the non-constancy of model orders, the non-constancy of the variances of seasonal white noise, the period length, and the length of the time series. The simulation results indicate that this method is in general robust for the estimation of AR parameters with respect to the distribution of error terms and other factors. However, the estimates of those parameters were, in some cases, noticeably poor for Cauchy distribution. It is also noticed that the variances of estimates of white noise variances are highly affected by the degree of skewness of the distribution of error terms. 相似文献
23.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(3):369-381
Likelihood ratios (LRs) are used to characterize the efficiency of diagnostic tests. In this paper, we use the classical weighted least squares (CWLS) test procedure, which was originally used for testing the homogeneity of relative risks, for comparing the LRs of two or more binary diagnostic tests. We compare the performance of this method with the relative diagnostic likelihood ratio (rDLR) method and the diagnostic likelihood ratio regression (DLRReg) approach in terms of size and power, and we observe that the performances of CWLS and rDLR are the same when used to compare two diagnostic tests, while DLRReg method has higher type I error rates and powers. We also examine the performances of the CWLS and DLRReg methods for comparing three diagnostic tests in various sample size and prevalence combinations. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that all of the tests are generally conservative and have low power, especially in settings of small sample size and low prevalence. 相似文献
24.
Varying-coefficient models are very useful for longitudinal data analysis. In this paper, we focus on varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data. We develop a new estimation procedure using Cholesky decomposition and profile least squares techniques. Asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators of varying-coefficient functions has been established. Monte Carlo simulation studies show excellent finite-sample performance. We illustrate our methods with a real data example. 相似文献
25.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(7):1596-1607
There is currently much discussion about lasso-type regularized regression which is a useful tool for simultaneous estimation and variable selection. Although the lasso-type regularization has several advantages in regression modelling, owing to its sparsity, it suffers from outliers because of using penalized least-squares methods. To overcome this issue, we propose a robust lasso-type estimation procedure that uses the robust criteria as the loss function, imposing L1-type penalty called the elastic net. We also introduce to use the efficient bootstrap information criteria for choosing optimal regularization parameters and a constant in outlier detection. Simulation studies and real data analysis are given to examine the efficiency of the proposed robust sparse regression modelling. We observe that our modelling strategy performs well in the presence of outliers. 相似文献
26.
Hiroshi Yamada 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2018,47(5):1022-1027
The Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering is frequently used in macroeconometrics to decompose time series, such as real gross domestic product, into their trend and cyclical components. Because the HP filtering is a basic econometric tool, it is necessary to have a precise understanding of the nature of it. This article contributes to the literature by listing several (penalized) least-squares problems that are related to the HP filtering, three of which are newly introduced in the article, and showing their properties. We also remark on their generalization. 相似文献
27.
为了更有效的规避影响保险市场交易效率的逆向选择问题,本文分投保人风险类型为两种和多种情形建立了带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型,首次提出可以用奖励金和惩罚金有效甄别投保人的风险类型。该模型根据投保人第一个保险期内的索赔情况在第二个保险期对其进行奖励或惩罚,高风险类型的投保人如果选择为低风险类型投保人设计的保险契约,则其在第二阶段受到惩罚的概率要远远大于得到奖励的概率,即风险越高的投保人越害怕惩罚金,因此所建模型满足斯彭斯-莫里斯分离条件。带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型中保险公司的期望利润仍然为0,并不会给投保人带来额外的经济负担,却能够实现对传统部分保险契约简单重复两次的严格帕累托改进。最后采用一个算例说明了该模型的有效性。 相似文献
28.
29.
Dankmar Böhing 《Statistics》2013,47(4):487-495
Tn optimal experimental design theory there are well-known situations, in which additional constraints are implied to the design set. These constraints destroy in general the simplex structure of the set of feasible points of the design set. Thus the available iteration procedures for the unrestricted case are no longer applicable. In this paper a penalty approach is suggested which transforms the restricted problem to the unrestricted case and allows the application of well-known algorithms such as the Fedorov-Wynn-type or the projected gradient procedure. 相似文献
30.
Yasumasa Matsuda 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(9):2257-2273
In this paper, functional coefficient autoregressive (FAR) models proposed by Chen and Tsay (1993) are considered. We propose a diagnostic statistic for FAR models constructed by comparing between parametric and nonparametric estimators of the functional form of the FAR models. We show asymptotic properties of our statistic mathematically and it can be applied to the estimation of the delay parameter and the specification of the functional form of FAR models. 相似文献