Exact and approximate distributions for linear contrasts of means and variances

A Bayesian analysis is presented for the K-group Behrens-Fisher problem. Both exact posterior distributions and approximations were developed for both a general linear contrast of the K means and the K variances, given either proper diffuse or informative conjugate priors. The contrast of variances is a unique feature of the heterogeneous variance model that enables investigators to test specific effects of experimental manipulations on variance. Finally, important-differences were observed between the heterogeneous variance model and the homogeneous model.     

Counterexamples in unbalanced two-way analysis of variance

Recommended methods for analyzing unbalanced two-way data may be classified into two major categories:the parametric interpretation approach and the model comparison approach. Each approach has its advantages and its drawbacks. The main drawback of the parametric interpretation approach is non-orthogonality.For the model comparison approach the main drawback is the dependence of the hypothesis tested on the cell sizes. In this paper we provide examples to illustrate these drawbacks.     

Time series analysis of stratospheric ozone

Time series analyses of monthly average total ozone measured at 37 stations throughout the world were used to estimate the extent to which the average ozone trend correlates with the depletion curve hypothesized as due to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Statistical characteristics of stations in the ensemble were used to help define appropriate model and station selection criteria. The maximum likelihood procedure developed herein estimates the weighted average trend, its. variance, and the intra- and inter-station variance components of the trend. Correlations among trends at different stations are also taken into account. The models were subjected to much checking and criticism. Variations in statistical methodology are used to show that the results are insensitive to details of the model selection criteria. The method does not discriminate well between the hypothesized CFC trend and a linear trend. The trend estimates represent the sum of all long-term global effects. The variance includes all effects that differ from station-to-station. The estimated trend and 2α limits for 14 stations with 20-year records (1958-79) is an ozone increase through 1979 of (1.5+1.0) percent. At the 23 stations with shorter records, the trend is (1.0=1.7) percent. It is concluded that no significant depletion in stratospheric ozone has occurred from any cause through the end of 1979.     

Use of prior information for estimating the variance components

The MINQUE and its modifications are considered for estimating the variances of the balanced one-way random effects model. The effects of the a priori values on the estimators of the variances are examined in detail. The Mean Square Errors of the estimators are compared for variations in the prior values of the unknown variances.     

Comparing Equal-Tail Probability and Unbiased Confidence Intervals for the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient

The conventional confidence interval for the intraclass correlation coefficient assumes equal-tail probabilities. In general, the equal-tail probability interval is biased and other interval procedures should be considered. Unbiased confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient are readily available. The equal-tail probability and unbiased intervals have exact coverage as they are constructed using the pivotal quantity method. In this article, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient are built using balanced and unbalanced one-way random effects models. The expected length of confidence intervals serves as a tool to compare the two procedures. The unbiased confidence interval outperforms the equal-tail probability interval if the intraclass correlation coefficient is small and the equal-tail probability interval outperforms the unbiased interval if the intraclass correlation coefficient is large.     

Second-Order Response Surface Model with Neighbor Effects

This article considers the second-order response surface model in which the experimental units, i.e., plots experience the neighbor effects from immediate left and right neighboring plots assuming the plots to be placed adjacent linearly with no gaps. Conditions have been derived for the estimation of coefficients of second-order response surface model. A method of constructing designs for fitting second-order response surface in the presence of neighbor effects has been developed. The designs so obtained are found to be rotatable.     

Parametric Nonlinear Regression with Endogenous Switching

Based on the insightful work of Olsen (1980 Olsen , R. J. ( 1980 ). A least squares correction for selectivity bias . Econometrica 48 : 1815 – 1820 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) for the linear context, a generic and unifying framework is developed that affords a simple extension of the classical method of Heckman (1974 Heckman , J. ( 1974 ). Shadow prices, market wages, and labor supply . Econometrica 42 : 679 – 694 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 1976 Heckman , J. ( 1976 ). The common structure of statistical models of truncation sample selection and limited dependent variables and a simple estimator for such models . Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 5 : 475 – 492 . [Google Scholar], 1978 Heckman , J. ( 1978 ). Dummy endogenous variables in a simultaneous equation system . Econometrica 46 : 931 – 959 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 1979 Heckman , J. ( 1979 ). Sample selection bias as a specification error . Econometrica 47 : 153 – 161 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to a broad class of nonlinear regression models involving endogenous switching and its two most common incarnations, endogenous sample selection and endogenous treatment effects. The approach should be appealing to applied researchers for three reasons. First, econometric applications involving endogenous switching abound. Secondly, the approach requires neither linearity of the regression function nor full parametric specification of the model. It can, in fact, be applied under the minimal parametric assumptions—i.e., specification of only the conditional means of the outcome and switching variables. Finally, it is amenable to relatively straightforward estimation methods. Examples of applications of the method are discussed.     

Marginal Changes in Random Parameters Ordered Response Models with Interaction Terms

Marginal changes of interacted variables and interaction terms in random parameters ordered response models are calculated incorrectly in econometric softwares. We derive the correct formulas for calculating these marginal changes. In our empirical example, we observe significant changes not only in the magnitude of the marginal effects but also in their standard errors, suggesting that the incorrect estimation of the marginal effects of these variables as is commonly practiced can render biased inferences on the findings.     

The Modeling and Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Observations

Several important economic time series are recorded on a particular day every week. Seasonal adjustment of such series is difficult because the number of weeks varies between 52 and 53 and the position of the recording day changes from year to year. In addition certain festivals, most notably Easter, take place at different times according to the year. This article presents a solution to problems of this kind by setting up a structural time series model that allows the seasonal pattern to evolve over time and enables trend extraction and seasonal adjustment to be carried out by means of state-space filtering and smoothing algorithms. The method is illustrated with a Bank of England series on the money supply.