金融危机、货币政策与企业贷款行为——基于企业风险承担的微观视角研究

货币政策调控会先影响企业的风险偏好或风险容忍度,进而对企业的贷款行为产生影响。并且,金融危机冲击和货币政策调控会引起不同特征企业贷款行为的异质性反应。经验研究发现：宽松的货币政策会显著引起我国企业风险承担的上升,而企业风险承担上升也显著引起其银行贷款规模的增加,中小企业、股权分散型企业和民营企业其银行贷款规模对企业风险承担变化的反应更加敏感。在2008-2009年金融危机期间,企业风险承担水平对货币政策变动的反应更加灵敏,而企业贷款规模对企业风险承担的敏感度有所下降,大型企业、股权集中型企业和国有企业其基于企业风险承担传导的银行贷款行为受金融危机冲击影响更大。     

我国中等收入群体比重及其特征

中等收入群体的界定标准、规模和特征一直是学术界关注的焦点。在回顾和评述现有各种界定标准的基础上,建议采用全球所有国家收入中位数的67%~200%作为定义我国中等收入群体的上下限。研究发现,近些年我国中等收入群体比重在逐渐提高,从2002年的10%上升到2016年的28.9%,这主要源于我国居民整体收入水平的提高而不是收入分配格局的变化。要扩大我国中等收入群体比重,保持中高速增长至关重要,政策的重点是提“低”而不是限“高”,同时要防范现有的中等收入群体跌落为低收入群体。中等收入群体主要分布在城市地区,收入来源主要是工资性收入,储蓄率偏高,受教育水平明显高于低收入者和贫困人口。中等收入群体的标准下限附近分布着规模客观的低收入者,他们是扩大中等收入者比重的潜在来源,应是政策瞄准的主要对象。     

Maternal Discipline and Children's Adjustment: The Role of the Cultural and Situational Context

This study examined how the cultural and situational contexts can jointly shape the consequences of discipline strategies. Israeli mothers who grew up in Israel or in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) (overall N = 110) reported regarding their use of psychologically controlling and punitive discipline with their seven‐years‐old to 10‐years‐old children, and teachers reported regarding children's behavior problems. We assessed both mothers' overall general use of the discipline strategies, and their use of the same strategies following transgressions in the academic domain, an area which the two groups emphasize to differing degrees. Consistent with hypothesis, controlling discipline in academic situations had more positive consequences in the FSU group compared with the Israeli‐origin group. In contrast, and as predicted, cultural group was not a moderator of mothers' overall, general use of the same discipline strategies. The findings illustrate how taking the situation into account can inform examination of the moderating role of cultural group.     

论社会主义协商民主的中国特色

党的十八大报告首次提出社会主义协商民主是我国人民民主的重要形式,并提出健全社会主义协商民主制度这一重大历史命题,使协商民主由民主形式上升到民主制度层面。这一转变体现了中国共产党人对社会主义民主的实践创新、理论创新和制度创新,集中体现了中国共产党人构建具有中国特色、中国风格和中国气派的话语体系的决心和使命。     

中国古代调解制度探析

古代社会解决纠纷的途径多种多样,调解作为其中一种主要方式有着举足轻重的作用。在介绍中国传统调解制度的类型及特点的基础上,探讨传统调解制度对于古代封建社会的价值所在,认为其虽然存在一定的缺点,但是其有益的部分对我国当前的纠纷解决机制的完善有很大的借鉴作用。     

Approach and Positive Affect in Toddlerhood Predict Early Childhood Behavior Problems

The aim of the study was to examine the moderating role of positive affect on the relation between approach behaviors and adjustment outcomes. One hundred eleven toddlers participated in a laboratory assessment of approach and positive affect at 24 months. Behavior problems were reported by a parent in the fall of the child's kindergarten year. Results supported our hypotheses that children who displayed high approach and high positive affect in both non‐threat and low‐threat contexts were rated as higher in externalizing behavior problems. On the other hand, for children showing low positive affect, increases in approach in a moderate‐threat context lowered the risk of developing internalizing behavior problems. Implications for these findings are discussed, including methodological considerations of differences among eliciting contexts and advantages of separating positive affect and approach.     

Is Tattooing a Risk Factor for Adolescents’ Criminal Behavior? Empirical Evidence from an Administrative Data Set of Juvenile Detainees in Taiwan

Juvenile crime affects not only the victims of the crime but also the delinquents’ future. How to prevent adolescent criminal behavior has become an important public policy issue. This study contributes to this interesting issue by examining the relationship between tattooing and adolescents’ criminal behavior. In particular, this study investigates whether or not having a tattoo/tattoos is connected to the incidence of various criminal activities, including: larceny, robbery, fraud, assault, drug use, and homicide. A unique sample of 973 juvenile detainees drawn from the administrative profiles in Taiwan and the coarsened exact matching method were utilized. Results show that compared to their nontattooed counterparts, tattooed juvenile detainees were significantly more likely to commit fraud, assault, drug abuse, and homicide by 3%, 13%, 9%, and 9%, respectively. In contrast, tattooing was not significantly associated with larceny or robbery. From a policy perspective, given the significant link between tattooing and criminal behavior, the presence of a tattoo in adolescents may serve as a valuable indicator regarding adolescents’ high probability of committing crimes.     

Transient detailed balance and product form for reaction networks

This paper explores the boundary of the set of reaction networks that have an exact transient (truncated) multidimensional Poisson or product-form distribution for the number of particles of different types. Motivated by the birth–death process, we introduce the notions of transient detailed balance and delay functions, and use these notions to obtain the novel transient product-form distribution in a coagulation-fragmentation process for polymers with a tree-like structure from that of the pure coagulation process.     

The shifting landscape of LGBT organizational research

Over the past generation, sexual minorities—particularly lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) persons—have gained increased visibility in the public arena. Yet organizational research has lagged behind in recognizing and studying this category of organizational members. This article offers a critical review of this growing body of research. More specifically, we identify and discuss four dominant scholarly frames that have informed LGBT organizational research from the late nineteenth century to date. The frames include a “medical abnormality,” “deviant social role,” “collective identity,” and “social distinctiveness” view of sexual minorities. We argue that these frames have profoundly shaped the scope and range of organizational scholarship devoted to sexual minorities by showing that scholars using such contrasted frames have been drawn to very different research questions with respect to sexual minorities. We document and discuss the main and contrasted questions asked within each of these frames and show how they have both enabled and constrained LGBT organizational research. We conclude by calling for more attention to the frames organizational scholars adopt when studying sexual minorities, but also for more research on both minority and majority sexual orientations in organizations.     

Awareness of low self-control: Theory and evidence from a homeless shelter

Survey measures of self-control provide a potential low-cost alternative to incentivized elicitation. However, asking respondents to introspect on their self-control problems may instead measure their awareness of them, especially in populations with low self-control. We illustrate this with the Ameriks, Caplin, Leahy, and Tyler (2007) survey, which captures self-control problems through the deviation between self-reported ideal and predicted behavior (Expected Deviation, ED). Previous empirical evidence from high income or highly educated populations correlates larger ED with worse outcomes. We theoretically show that the reverse will be true in settings where awareness can play a large role: when self-control is low and costly commitment devices are available. We empirically show that, for residents of a homeless shelter, ED is positively correlated to savings in shelter lockboxes, a costly commitment device. This correlation is stronger for those likely to experience more self-control problems: individuals with past addiction problems.