Marginal and association regression models for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs: A likelihood‐based approach

Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances.     

Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series

Summary.  Many long instrumental climate records are available and might provide useful information in climate research. These series are usually affected by artificial shifts, due to changes in the conditions of measurement and various kinds of spurious data. A comparison with surrounding weather-stations by means of a suitable two-factor model allows us to check the reliability of the series. An adapted penalized log-likelihood procedure is used to detect an unknown number of breaks and outliers. An example concerning temperature series from France confirms that a systematic comparison of the series together is valuable and allows us to correct the data even when no reliable series can be taken as a reference.     

村民自治的公共选择研究

选举制度是民主制度的核心 ,选举的得失直接关系到民主的真实性。选举过程是选民和候选人的互动过程 ,他们为了各自的利益而进行角逐。必须以选举理论指导村民选举的实践     

Semi-parametric estimation of ROC curves based on binomial regression modelling

This paper presents a method of estimating a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve when the underlying diagnostic variable X is continuous and fully observed. The new method is based on modelling the probability of response given X , rather than the distribution of X given response. The method offers advantages in modelling flexibility and computational simplicity. The resulting ROC curve estimates are semi-parametric and can, in principle, take an infinite variety of shapes. Moreover, model selection can be based on standard methods within the binomial regression framework. Statistical accuracy of the curve estimate is provided by a simply implemented bootstrap approach.     

学习化社会的生存选择

文章认为学习化社会是人类社会发展的必然趋势 ,并通过对学习化社会基本特征的分析 ,强调指出终身学习是在学习化社会中求得生存的根本途径 ,而创新性学习是在学习化社会中取得成功的源泉和动力。通过对终身学习思想和时代背景的介绍 ,强调了终身学习要实现时间上的连续性和空间上的广延性 ;通过对创新性学习的认识 ,指出要实现创新性学习必须善于思考、掌握方法、乐于学习和进行系统学习。     

平等与收益的两难抉择--助学贷款政策的国际比较研究

为了体现教育的平等化原则以及减轻财政负担,世界各国政府纷纷推行助学贷款制度,然而在决策中却遇到了平等和效率的两难抉择。面对困境,各国政府做出了各自的决策,有的注重公平,有的注重效率,有的试图兼顾公平和效率,其中的得失成败,可为我国的政策抉择提供借鉴。     

世界绿色市场与我国对外贸易的战略选择

随着环保时代的到来 ,绿色消费和绿色产业的兴起促进世界绿色市场的发展 ,并对我国外贸产生巨大影响。面对这种形势 ,我国应当积极发展绿色产业 ,推动外贸的可持续发展。     

思想政治教育的文化本性与文化选择

思想政治教育具有其特殊的文化本性。从教育内容上看 ,思想政治教育是一种特殊的文化传播 ;从教育的主客体属性及其运作过程看 ,它主要是文化原理的运作 ,是一个文化过程 ;从其作为社会统治和控制手段看 ,它是一种人文力。这种文化本性要求思想政治教育必须遵循文化的逻辑 ,进行正确的文化选择。一是要弘扬中国传统文化精华 ,抵御西方文化中的消极因素 ,二是要严格按照教育目的进行文化选择 ,三是要提高教育者的文化素质 ,强化文化选择 ,四是要加强亚文化建设 ,引导受教育者的文化选择。这既有助于实现思想政治教育的目的 ,而且达到了文化价值的展现     

选择与自恋:现代性条件下自我认同的机制

现代性是一种后传统秩序,它将怀疑原则制度化,从而使反思性选择成为自我认同的一个机制,而最能表达反思性选择机制的是"富有命运特征的时刻";选择的多样性和制度的反思性使得极端关注身体的反思性自恋成为自我认同的另一个机制,最能表达反思性自恋机制的是"生活制度"的建构.     

线论

因中西方各自特殊的社会背景 ,线被赋予不同时期不同的使命 ,为美的历程 ,文明的发展起到了不可替代的作用。在中国绘画中 ,由于文人与书法的渗透 ,线显得更为丰富和精湛。历史证明 ,线在人类精神世界与情感交流中是一个出色的表述者 ,已成为世界各国共同的艺术财富。