法学视野下的高昌契券条款

把高昌出土的契约文书中的违约条款置于法学视野之下予以考察,其中违约条款的类型、违约责任的承担都是有章可循的,显示出我们祖先的伟大智慧和制度创造。可见我们民族法律文化传统还有许多亟待我们发掘。     

简论旧中国的公债

公债是商品经济发展到一定阶段的必然产物，它是政府用来解决财政困难的一种手段。随着帝国主义列强入侵中国，清政府也开始效仿西方，通过发行公债以解决财政困难。本文主要论述了旧中国历届政府发行公债的情况、旧中国发行公债所具备的特点、旧中国发行公债的历史意义和参考价值。     

Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds

This paper studies the interaction between default and liquidity for corporate bonds that are traded in an over‐the‐counter secondary market with search frictions. Bargaining with dealers determines a bond's endogenous liquidity, which depends on both the firm fundamental and the time‐to‐maturity of the bond. Corporate default decisions interact with the endogenous secondary market liquidity via the rollover channel. A default‐liquidity loop arises: Assuming a relative illiquid secondary bond market in default, earlier endogenous default worsens a bond's secondary market liquidity, which amplifies equity holders' rollover losses, which in turn leads to earlier endogenous default. Besides characterizing in closed form the full interdependence between liquidity and default for credit spreads, our calibrated model can jointly match empirically observed credit spreads and liquidity measures of bonds across different rating classes.     

积极财政政策的效应分析与现实选择

以增发国债为主要手段的积极财政政策在我国近年来的经济增长中功不可没。然而 ,随着时间的推移 ,现行积极财政政策面临国债投资效益递减、并可能导致未来经济陷入“滞胀”的局面。所以 ,减税成为继续实行积极财政政策的新方向。目前适度减税的具体措施 :一是改生产型增值税为消费型增值税 ;二是完善现行企业所得税 ;三是逐步免除农业税费。     

中国可转换债券定价研究

可转换债券是一种极其复杂的信用衍生产品。除了一般的债权之外,它包含众多的期权,如转股权、回售权、赎回权和转股价调低权等。条款的复杂性决定了可转换债券定价的复杂性。利用金融工程学的基本原理和方法,根据中国可转换债券的具体特征,构造了中国可转换债定价的具体模型,并通过具体的参数估计,对中国的可转换债券的合理价格进行了研究。其结果是,目前我国可转换债券的价格和其理论价值相比,存在较大的差异,可转换债券的价值明显被低估。     

债务国际化下国债规模临界增长模型研究

本文提出了国债规模合理增长的稳定负担率条件,并建立基于债务国际化下的国债规模临界增长模型,研究表明,国债规模的临界增长速度取决于经济环境的关键变量的综合作用,并对不同经济环境下的国债规模临界增长速度进行了仿真研究。该模型将为我国债务国际化下国债规模的管理与预警提供帮助。     

An investigation into causal links between victimization and offending in adolescents

There is a considerable body of evidence from earlier research to show that offending is associated with an increased risk of victimization, and being a victim with an increased risk of offending. There have been few earlier studies of the link. These have generally set out to test specific explanations, for example, the idea that the same lifestyles or routine activities may be associated with both victimization and offending. In a current study of a cohort of 4,300 adolescents in Edinburgh we have found a correlation of 0.421 between crime victimization and self-reported offending at the age of 15 when offending peaks. Variables chosen to test three broad types of theory - life-style and routine activities, weak social bonds, aspects of personality - are shown to be related both to victimization and to offending in adolescence. The present analysis uses latent class growth mixture models to track the dynamic relationships over time between adolescent victimization and offending both before and after controlling for these explanatory variables. In the short term, offending is strongly related to a later rise in victimization, but in the longer term to a fall that tends to cancel out the earlier rise. These findings remain the same after controlling for the ten explanatory variables. Victimization is associated with a later rise in offending in the longer term. The theoretical perspectives suggested by earlier researchers are fairly successful in explaining this linkage running from victimization to offending. Future research should focus on the role of peer influence in linking victimization and offending, and should push forward the analysis into the adult years. The implications for criminal justice policy could be far-reaching.     

我国债券市场政府会计信息披露研究——以省级政府信用评级报告为例

近年来,我国地方政府债券市场发展迅速。以2014—2017年省级政府发行债券时披露的信用评级报告为样本,分析了我国债券市场政府会计信息披露的现状及存在的问题。研究发现,我国债券市场政府会计信息披露在不同地区、不同层级、不同类型债券之间存在较大差异。进一步分析认为,政府债券市场化机制不健全导致政府会计信息披露的供给不足,财政管理失衡导致不同政府会计指标的披露水平参差不齐,财政实力不均导致不同地方政府选择性披露会计信息,披露管制缺位导致政府会计信息披露质量不高。因此,应当推动政府债券市场化改革,以激发市场主体对政府会计信息披露的需求;深化财政管理体制改革,以建立政府会计标准体系;制定政府会计信息披露指引,以规范地方政府会计信息披露行为;加强政府会计信息披露管制,以提高政府会计信息披露质量。     

应对并购风险的可转债与阶段性支付模型与案例研究

本文运用模型研究了可转债和阶段性支付在抑制双边道德风险以及减小不确定性风险中所发挥的作用,并通过SZ能源集团并购案例详细考察了我国国有上市公司在并购过程中所存在的各种风险。结果表明,内嵌转股期权的可转债支付合约可以有效抑制并购中的双边道德风险,在阶段性支付的辅助下,则更能有效地防范市场相关风险。最后,为了更好的说明可转债和阶段性支付对于并购风险的防范作用,我们进一步通过案例分析了可转债和阶段支付的应用情况,发现阶段性支付思想已经体现在并购的现金支付方式中,但是可转债支付在国内并购中的应用尚不多见。     

随机利率下跨期多事件触发巨灾债券定价研究

巨灾债券兼具规避巨灾风险和投资功能,既是对巨灾救助体制的有力补充,又为资本市场提供了较高收益率的零贝塔债券。多事件触发巨灾债券只有当多个触发指标被同时满足时才会损失本金,投资风险小于单事件触发巨灾债券,具有更大市场潜力。结合中国的台风历史损失数据,可构建多事件触发巨灾债券的定价模型,结合Copula函数拟合的双触发指标的联合分布,在利率服从Vasicek随机利率模型的假设下完成多事件触发巨灾债券的定价过程,并得出利率的随机因素对跨期定价结果的影响。