Exponential Population Growth and Doubling Times: Are They Dead or Merely Quiescent?

Exponential Growth and Doubling Times: Use of these popular population buzzwords of the last half of the twentieth century was fully justified by the growth rates of that period. However, those growth rates have now all but disappeared and so have the underlying reasons that those buzzwords made sense. Misuse of such expressions today costs credibility. Though the world's population growth certainly does remain vigorous and robust, creating many reasons for concern, nowhere today is growth projected as exponential. The essence of exponential growth is analyzed and distinguished from exponential curves, and non-exponential growth. Several types of current population growth are recognized, none being exponential. In periods of non-exponential growth, a Doubling Time calculated from a single annual growth rate is grossly erroneous and often absurd. Other standard measures of growth are needed. United Nations projections should include figures for percentage growth by 2025 and 2050.     

1949年以后中国的人口与制度变迁

已有的关于中国制度变迁的研究忽视了人口因素在这个过程中所起的重要作用 ,必须从人口学的角度研究新中国成立以来的制度变迁过程。中国从计划经济向市场经济转变的过程是一个工业化目标与人口双重约束下的制度变迁过程 ,人口增长是推动中国制度变迁的基本动力     

Population goals and ecological strategies for spaceship earth

The last century has seen extraordinary growth in human populations and economies. This growth has imposed huge and ever-increasing pressures on Earth’s ecosystems, prompting fears concerning the integrity of their life-supporting functions and the high rate of extinction of species. Quite simply, ecological degradation threatens the interests and possibly the survival of future human populations. By the criterion of ecological sustainability, and given our current consumption rates and technologies, Earth is now overpopulated. In such times of great and threatening change it is important to reconsider human goals and enabling strategies. A fundamental goal is the sustained quality survival of human populations. Achieving this requires new paradigms of understanding and management, especially the realization that the human economic and social spheres are dependent on healthy, functioning ecosystems, and that most forms of growth are unsustainable. Socio-economic development must become ecologically sustainable with the maintenance of Earth’s life-support systems assuming priority. Developing integrated ecosystem management, cutting consumption, and negotiating optimum population sizes would be useful. This paper discusses these issues with emphasis on the Australian situation.     

Changing Human Populations in Post-Soviet Kamchatka: An Integrated Study of Shifts in Fertility and Net Population

We expect population changes to be closely tied to resource abundance or scarcity. Here, I demonstrate a clear relationship between the widespread socio-economic crisis of the post-Soviet period and declining population patterns in central Kamchatka. These broad patterns, however, vary among populations, reflecting particular interlinked socio-economic, ecological, and historical conditions. More dramatic decline is observed in areas where the socio-economic crisis has coincided with a local natural resource crisis. Analyzing population shifts in the context of local circumstances, this paper corroborates the link between resource conditions and changes at the family level.     

西部经济增长的人力资源开发战略

西部地区的经济发展需要充分开发当地的人力资源,人力资源开发应成为西部优先发展的战略目标。本文论述了人力资源开发与经济发展的关系,分析了西部地区人力资源现状和存在的问题,在此基础上提出了西部人力资源开发战略。     

人口增长压力下的环境治理途径分析与启示

不断增长的人口压力和对环境资源的不合理利用已经严重影响了生态环境的可持续性,因此,必须选择科学有效的环境治理途径来解决这一问题。环境治理按照不同的治理思路可以分为“法律管制型”、“经济激励型”和“公众参与型”三种途径,三者各有利弊。结合人口增长压力趋强这一基本国情,我们认为,在逐渐明晰环境产权制度和完善环境市场监督机制的基础上,强调公众参与的环境治理思路是我国环境治理的根本途径和战略目标。     

Macroeconomic Implications of Agglomeration

Cities exist because of the productivity gains that arise from clustering production and workers, a process called agglomeration. How important is agglomeration for aggregate growth? This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of cities and uses it to estimate the effect of local agglomeration on aggregate growth. We combine aggregate time‐series and city‐level panel data to estimate the model's parameters via generalized method of moments. The estimates imply a statistically and economically significant impact of local agglomeration on the growth rate of per capita consumption, raising it by about 10%.     

中国生产性服务业与制造业种群的共生——基于Logistic生长方程的实证研究

本文从生态学种群Logistic生长方程的视角,假设共生作用和环境作用对种群环境容量存在非线性影响,建立生产性服务业与制造业种群共生模型,探索中国生产性服务业与制造业种群共生的特征与规律。研究发现:中国生产性服务业发展的关键在于增加制度供给,而制造业发展的关键在于突破资源、能源、环保和产品市场的硬约束。     

公司治理与企业价值的实证研究

本文试图构建一个能够恰当反映和评价中国企业公司治理水平的CGI指标体系及企业价值计量模型,并运用回归分析,检验中国企业公司治理与其价值的相关性。研究结论表明公司治理水平对企业短期绩效的影响相比于对反映企业长期绩效的企业价值的影响更为显著。     

回收流动性和发展实体经济:治理当前通货膨胀的对策选择

流动性过剩和成本上涨是本轮通货膨胀的两大推手。2011年,我国仍然面临较大的通胀压力,通胀水平预计全年将呈现前高后稳的态势。在生产成本明显上升、需求不够旺盛和流动性严重过剩的宏观经济条件下,仅仅使用紧缩性货币政策无法有效治理当前通胀,还必须同时着力发展实体经济。发展实体经济可以从三个方面减轻通胀压力:一是吸纳社会闲置资金,增强企业消化成本的能力和增加供给,以直接减轻通胀压力;二是通过作用于股市以增强股市吸收过剩流动性的能力;三是通过增加就业缓解通胀对居民生活的负面影响。