高速公路施工进度风险评价

通过高速公路项目施工进度的风险识别,将主要影响因素分为硬、软指标并建立风险指标体系。采用模糊逻辑与概率分析相结合的方法对识别出来的风险进行计算和评价;运用主成分分析法将风险指标体系中的各数据进行自动赋权并降维,使概率分析与模糊逻辑法的评价简单易行;最后经过实际案例检验,证实该方法可行并具有现实意义。     

乡村旅游可持续发展评价指标体系的构建

科学地建立乡村旅游可持续发展评价指标体系,对实施乡村旅游可持续发展战略、促进社会主义新农村建设具有重要的战略意义。在文献分析、专家访谈和问卷调查的基础上,运用SPSS13.0软件对数据进行分析,优化乡村旅游可持续发展的评价指标,构建起一套具有较高信度和效度的评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法确定各项评价指标的权重,从而进一步提高该评价指标体系的应用价值。     

论学生工作性质的当代定位

学生工作普遍存在于中小学教育中。从学校教育发展的角度看,当前学生工作存在着育人价值残缺、对学生工作事理研究无意识、内容结构散乱、专业支持体系建设不力等问题。这不仅反映出当前人们对学生工作的认识存在着偏差与误区,同时也反映出人们对加强学生工作能够促进人的发展、凸显学生主动、促进教师专业成长、开发教育资源、实现综合融通等作用缺乏清晰的理解。在厘清学生工作的教育性之后,在重新回归到学校教育实践之中时,我们需要将学生工作定性为学校教育的基础性构成,并应努力实现它的能使学生成长、教师发展、学校转型的重要价值。     

监理市场研究

通过主成分分析对监理市场进行实证研究,考察监理市场上不同行业中监理的发展水平,得出结论:监理市场是买方市场。在此基础上,对监理市场结构的不足进行了探讨,认为业主在购买监理服务时具有很强的讨价还价能力,可以压低监理服务的价格。与之相应,监理企业出售的“监理服务”有不足之处,这将导致监理工作难以保质保量地完成,导致监理企业和监理工程师面临更高的风险。为解决这一问题,监理行业需要更进一步发展以抵御这样一种市场结构所带来的负面影响。     

现代商业银行业绩评价方法设计——基于主成分赋权的多层次递级集成思想

本文所设计的商业银行业绩评价方法克服现有评价方法中的有关缺陷,根据现代商业银行的业务结构特点,以n个商业银行的业绩数据为基础,采用主成分赋权的方法,运用线性和非线性加和集成的价值函数,以递级集成的方式来设计商业银行的业绩评价方法。     

Functional logistic regression: a comparison of three methods

Functional logistic regression is becoming more popular as there are many situations where we are interested in the relation between functional covariates (as input) and a binary response (as output). Several approaches have been advocated, and this paper goes into detail about three of them: dimension reduction via functional principal component analysis, penalized functional regression, and wavelet expansions in combination with Least Absolute Shrinking and Selection Operator penalization. We discuss the performance of the three methods on simulated data and also apply the methods to data regarding lameness detection for horses. Emphasis is on classification performance, but we also discuss estimation of the unknown parameter function.     

Clustering of gamma-ray bursts through kernel principal component analysis

We consider the problem related to clustering of gamma-ray bursts (from “BATSE” catalogue) through kernel principal component analysis in which our proposed kernel outperforms results of other competent kernels in terms of clustering accuracy and we obtain three physically interpretable groups of gamma-ray bursts. The effectivity of the suggested kernel in combination with kernel principal component analysis in revealing natural clusters in noisy and nonlinear data while reducing the dimension of the data is also explored in two simulated data sets.     

Copula-based reliability analysis for a parallel system with a cold standby

The traditional reliability models cannot well reflect the effect of performance dependence of subsystems on the reliability of system, and neglect the problems of initial reliability and standby redundancy. In this paper, the reliability of a parallel system with active multicomponents and a single cold-standby unit has been investigated. The simultaneously working components are dependent and the dependence is expressed by a copula function. Based on the theories of conditional probability, the explicit expressions for the reliability and the MTTF of the system, in terms of the copula function and marginal lifetime distributions, are obtained. Let the copula function be the FGM copula and the marginal lifetime distribution be exponential distribution, a system with two parallel dependent units and a single cold-standby unit is taken as an example. The effect of different degrees of dependence among components on system reliability is analyzed, and the system reliability can be expressed as the linear combination of exponential reliability functions with different failure rates. For investigating how the degree of dependence affects the mean lifetime, furthermore, the parallel system with a single cold standby, comprising different number of active components, is also presented. The effectiveness of the modeling method is verified, and the method presented provides a theoretical basis for reliability design of engineering systems and physics of failure.     

西方国家民意表达的社会化机制研究

西方社会,除了建立起民意表达的国家机制以外,还拥有较完备的民意表达社会化机制。在工具层面,社会化表达机制作为一个结构化体系,涵盖了民意机构表达、大众传媒与出版表达、利益集团与自愿组织表达、街头民主表达以及理论学术表达等多样化的诉愿形式。当今西方社会化机制维度上的民意表达呈现出一些新的特点和趋势,特别值得我们关注,更需要我们放眼世界而寻求经验,以利于构建和谐社会。     

基于GIS的宁夏人口经济压力空间分布研究

空间分析是深入探索空间特征的重要技术,因此作者利用空间分析中的主成分分析方法和空间自相关分析对宁夏人口经济压力分类及其分布关系进行了深入探索,结果表明,宁夏人口经济压力从北部向南部逐渐增大,在空间分布关系上人口经济压力呈现明显的组团模式,北部区域以银川为核心呈低—低关联模式,南部区域以原州区为核心呈高—高关联模式。