Efficiency of Even Separation of Parallel Elements with Variable Contest Intensity

The article considers strategic defense and attack of a system that can be separated into parallel elements. The defender distributes its resource between separation and protecting the elements from outside attacks. The vulnerability of each element is determined by an attacker‐defender contest success function, which depends on a contest intensity that may increase or decrease through the separation process. The article determines criteria of separation efficiency for systems without performance redundancy and 1‐out‐of‐N and Q‐out‐of‐N systems with performance redundancy. For the systems with performance redundancy the cases of expected damage proportional to the probability that the demand is not met, and expected damage proportional to the unsupplied demand, are considered.     

Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya.⁽ 1 ⁾ The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.     

关系资产与中非间贸易:基于40国面板数据的实证研究

中非间长期友好关系是否产生贸易促进效应是双方外交关系可持续性及各自应对外部冲击能力的重要支撑，基于中非间较同质化的外交关系资产背景，通过引入弱惩罚和强惩罚机制的关系持续期和以外交关系等级衡量的投资强度变量来测度关系资产，以克服外交活动与贸易间存在的内生性问题，并纳入冲突力对中非间关系的影响，并利用2001～2017年非洲40国贸易数据构建面板校正误差模型，考察中非国家间关系资产对双边贸易及细分初级产品和制成品贸易是否存在促进效应。研究表明，关系资产对中非贸易有显著促进作用，但存在两个相反的关系资产对贸易影响机制，即关系持续期作为非纯公共产品的贸易促进作用和对较大经济规模国家的贸易摊薄效应；中国经济增长对中非双向出口贸易有较强带动作用，对非洲国家关税减免政策具有互惠特征，对中非双边贸易均有明显促进作用，但对不同细分品类具有差异化影响；中国和非洲国家应合力提升关系投资强度，以进一步发挥惯性力和国家间关系的贸易提升力作用，以贸易促进支撑中非全面战略合作伙伴关系的发展。     

我国提高能源效率的目标设计

本文基于省级面板数据,通过构建静态和动态面板数据模型,对我国能源效率变动的影响因素进行了深入分析,并通过样本内拟合标准和样本外预测标准进行模型选择,以确定最优的计量模型,进而对"十二五"期间我国的提高能源效率的目标进行了估计。研究结果表明,人均收入水平、产业结构、城市化水平、政府科研支出、技术进步、能源价格以及资本调整速度都对我国的能源使用效率有重要影响。模拟结果表明,在一切照旧情景下,"十二五"期间我国的节能潜力也可达到5%左右。而在政府制定适当的节能政策的情况下,"十二五"期间的节能潜力可以达到14%至17%左右,但是更高的节能目标不容易实现。     

Estimating the intensity function of a power law process at the current time: time truncated case

The power law process, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity function µ(t) = (β/θ)(t/θ) , is frequently used to model the occurence of events in time. Often, an important quantity is the value of the intensity function at the current time, that is, the time when data collection is ceased. In this article, the problem of estimating this quantity is addressed when the data are time truncated, that is, when data collection is stopped at a predetermined time T. The class of multiples of the conditional MLE is suggested, and some members are analyzed. In addition, the class of estimators formed by first performing a preliminary test of significance on the parameter β is analyzed. Expressions for the bias and MSE of these estimators are derived and evaluated for several values of the parameters     

中国家族企业网络化成长模式：基于东西部地区问卷调查结果的统计分析

基于浙江、重庆等东西部省市266家样本家族企业的调查数据,探讨了中国家族企业网络化成长模式的主要类型、基本特征,构建途径,并从企业内外角度进行了比较,主要结论是:家族企业与其他企业的关系以购买原材料、机器设备、零部件和接受订单(代工)为主,与其他机构的关系以技术咨询、资金借贷、管理咨询、委托产品开发为主;注重促进与产业价值链中其他企业关系的长期化,强调与本地政府主管部门和金融机构的关系;网络化成长模式主要通过朋友和其他关系构建,通过家族关系构建的比例很低,并主要受地理区域、产业属性、组织结构、企业规模、权力结构、企业家特质等因素的影响.     

二语产出中语义提取的抑制机制及抑制强度

抑制是大脑的一项重要认知机能.抑制机制在言语产出中也发挥着重要的调节作用.本文介绍了在二语产出的语义提取阶段双语心理词汇间是否存在抑制机制的争议,并从以往对抑制强度的解释、抑制自动化、以及抑制动激活的关系这三个方面,探讨了关于抑制强度变化的规律.     

知识产权保护影响服务业发展的国内外研究新进展

近年来,从知识产权视角展开影响服务业发展研究,是打破传统研究范围的重要偿试,并已成为服务经济学的一个新方向。学者们主要沿四条线索展开：一是基于服务业的特性研究知识产权保护与服务业的匹配关系;二是研究知识产权保护对服务业创新与增长的正面效应;三是研究知识产权保护对服务业发展的综合效应;四是研究知识产权保护在服务业企业中的实施及其影响。未来,应深化研究知识产权保护所产生的市场扩张效应和市场势力效应背后真正的传导机制,使用包括仿真模拟技术在内的多种方法,探寻能够促进服务业发展的知识产权保护最适强度范围。     

基于区位差异的旅游季节性比较研究--以青岛、临沂、泰安为例

旅游季节性是旅游地及其旅游产业的重要特征之一。以青岛、临沂、泰安三地为例,从国内客流统计的角度,运用方差分析,分别对其旅游季节性强度指数进行计算,结果表明它们的旅游季节性特征有着显著不同,原因很大程度上可归结为三地旅游区位的差异。其中,资源条件、气候条件、客源市场和交通条件等旅游区位因子会对旅游资源、旅游需求产生不同的影响,并最终作用于旅游地客流的季节性波动。     

Family characteristics as predictors of intensity in family services

This article investigates factors influencing the number of hours families are involved with family services and uses these factors to develop a predictive model. This research began with focus groups involving family service workers who identified three key domains influencing service intensity: worker/family relationship, family motivation, and family characteristics. The family characteristics domain is the focus of this article. Influencing factors within this domain are examined through analysis of database information from 258 families who had previously accessed family services through a community services organization. Key predictors identified include the gender of main consumer, family size, and presence of issues such as family violence and physical illness. These findings are used to develop a model to predict intervention intensity for families accessing family services. The ability to estimate service intensity provides data to effectively develop innovative programs and enable better balancing of staff workloads and resources. Additionally, the capability to predict intensity helps allocate families to appropriate workers and programs.