碳排放强度分解决策支持系统的研制与应用

中国区域碳排放强度随着经济发展呈现不同的变化趋势。为了帮助决策者根据区域碳排放强度的时间和空间特征制定低碳经济发展政策,基于对数均值迪氏分解（LMDI）的方法,研制了碳排放强度分解决策支持系统,并结合面向对象的信息系统开发流程开发相应的软件。通过对系统的初步应用可以看出,该系统有助于使用者定量、直观地分析各地区能源结构、能源效率和经济结构的问题,制定相应的低碳发展政策。     

中际语韵律短语信息焦点的语音实现特点及底层原因

中际语韵律短语信息焦点的语音实现常常呈现出音高低、音强弱、音强短等体系化的特点。受汉语韵律类型及声调特征的负迁移影响,学习者很少能主动注意并有效实现出英语语调音幅的多变性。而汉语阳平调突出的听辨感与较高的调值往往容易让学习者将信息焦点实现为类似于阳平调的、短暂的高升调。     

政府补贴对上市公司外部融资的影响研究——基于广义倾向得分法的实证分析

选取2003—2011年获得政府补贴的A股上市公司数据,运用广义倾向得分法分析发现,政府补贴对企业外部融资的影响与补贴强度密切相关。补贴强度与债务融资、权益融资之间均呈现"倒U"型关系。与未获补贴相比,一定强度内的政府补贴会显著增加补贴企业的债务融资额和权益融资额。针对子样本的分析进一步发现,前述"倒U"型关系在各子样本上都稳定,但政府补贴对债务融资和权益融资的促进作用在非国有企业和盈利企业中更加显著。     

人文奥运与奥林匹克的赛场文化

20 0 8年在北京举办奥运会 ,那时将使全世界人民的目光焦点对准北京。奥林匹克的赛场文化一直是奥林匹克的重要组成部分。现代人所要求的社会性格和现代体育 ,特别是现代竞技体育所提倡的观念是一致的。奥林匹克赛场就是这样吸引着全世界不同种族、不同肤色、不同制度、不同信仰、不同贫富的人纷纷涌向它。     

Joint modeling of linear degradation and failure time data with masked causes of failure under simple step-stress test

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between degradation and failure time for a simple step-stress test where the underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to induce failure experimentally and a tampered failure rate model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real-world example is analysed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

Residual Analysis for Inhomogeneous Neyman–Scott Processes

Abstract. In this article, we introduce a residual analysis for inhomogeneous Neyman–Scott models based on Laplace functionals. Our simulation study shows that this residual analysis method has a good performance in assessing goodness‐of‐fit and revealing inadequacy of the fitted model. The method is employed in fitting a Thomas model to California redwood trees data and a Matérn model to the locations of hickory trees in Lansing woods, Michigan.     

基于风险规避的双渠道制造商在线推介策略研究

研究了风险规避对双渠道制造商在线推介策略的影响。首先，以零售商、制造商风险中性为基准模型考察制造商推介策略，发现当推介市场规模较小时，制造商仅推介官方商城；当推介市场规模较大时，制造商选择都推介策略。然后，分别考察零售商或制造商风险规避特性对推介策略的影响，发现当推介市场规模居中时，若市场竞争强度较小，则随着风险规避程度的增大，制造商推介策略由仅推介官方商城转变为都推介；若市场竞争强度较大，则零售商风险规避情况下推介策略由都推介转变为仅推介官方商城，但制造商风险规避情况下推介策略不变。最后，通过算例形式分析了零售商和制造商都风险规避时制造商的推介策略。     

Optimum release time of a software under periodic debugging schedule

In this paper, we study the problem of finding the optimal release time of a software meant to be marketed over a finite time horizon. The optimal design scheme considers reduction of the whole cost, achievement of a specified reliability with some high probability, or a combination of the both. We assume that the software is debugged periodically and the bug detection rates in the pre-release and post-release periods are different. We derive the optimal solution in each case. We also demonstrate the utility of the results through simulations, leading to different types of graphs showing the relationship between the target reliability, specified budget and the optimal number of additional debugging periods.     

Globally intensity-reweighted estimators for K- and pair correlation functions

We introduce new estimators of the inhomogeneous K-function and the pair correlation function of a spatial point process as well as the cross K-function and the cross pair correlation function of a bivariate spatial point process under the assumption of second-order intensity-reweighted stationarity. These estimators rely on a ‘global’ normalisation factor which depends on an aggregation of the intensity function, while the existing estimators depend ‘locally’ on the intensity function at the individual observed points. The advantages of our new global estimators over the existing local estimators are demonstrated by theoretical considerations and a simulation study.     

Modelling and classification of species abundance: a case study in the Barro Colorado Island plot

Quantifying and modelling the effect of environmental variables on the abundance of species is of great importance in plant ecology and forestry. In this paper, using a log-additive model, the effect of environmental variables on distribution of five species in the Barro Colorado Island plot is modelled. The fitted log-additive models are examined and compared with conventional log-linear models. Finally, a cluster analysis is employed to classify species into groups with similar habitat preferences.