Optimal and lead-in adaptive allocation for binary outcomes: A comparison of Bayesian methods

We compare posterior and predictive estimators and probabilities in response-adaptive randomization designs for two- and three-group clinical trials with binary outcomes. Adaptation based upon posterior estimates are discussed, as are two predictive probability algorithms: one using the traditional definition, the other using a skeptical distribution. Optimal and natural lead-in designs are covered. Simulation studies show that efficacy comparisons lead to more adaptation than center comparisons, though at some power loss, skeptically predictive efficacy comparisons and natural lead-in approaches lead to less adaptation but offer reduced allocation variability. Though nuanced, these results help clarify the power-adaptation trade-off in adaptive randomization.     

The discrepancy of P-values and posterior probability: Two-sided hypothesis of variance of normal distribution with unknown mean

This article is concerned with the comparison of P-value and Bayesian measure in point null hypothesis for the variance of Normal distribution with unknown mean. First, using fixed prior for test parameter, the posterior probability is obtained and compared with the P-value when an appropriate prior is used for the mean parameter. In the second, lower bounds of the posterior probability of H₀ under a reasonable class of prior are compared with the P-value. It has been shown that even in the presence of nuisance parameters, these two approaches can lead to different results in the statistical inference.     

网络侵权投诉的平台审核及边界

现行法律规定网络平台侵权投诉（即通知）的形式审查,在机制目的设置上,旨在降低平台实质审查带来的高成本。然而,过于简单的形式审查要件之规定对平台的稳定性与人力审核成本反而提出了更高的要求。为维护平台信息数据的稳定性,平台难免会选择实质审查来减少形式审查所产生的信息波动。这又与网络平台侵权投诉形式审查的宗旨相悖。平台针对不同的权利类型的投诉进行审核,其中最为核心的就是对“构成侵权的初步证明材料”的把握。这个过程是个主观大于客观的自我内心确信。在以高度盖然性为标准的大前提下,网络平台要做的是权利归属的恰当性判断。     

单窃听双跳协作网络的中继选择方案及其性能分析

研究了安全通信意义下,单向译码转发（decode-and-forward,DF）协作无线网络的中继选择问题。针对窃听者既能获得信源发出的信号,又能窃取中继节点转发数据的通信系统,提出了3种中继选择方案来对抗窃听者,增强系统物理层安全性。其中,方案一选择到窃听者信噪比（signal-to-noise ratio,SNR）最小的中继节点;方案二为最大最小（max-min）选择方案,即选择信源到中继节点和中继节点到信宿的较差信噪比中最大值所对应的中继节点;方案三根据窃听信道和主信道的瞬时信道状态信息（channel state information,CSI）选择使得窃听网络有最大保密容量的中继节点。在对各方案的性能分析过程中,得到了各中继选择方案拦截概率的闭式表示,进一步对拦截概率作渐近分析,获得了各中继选择方案的分集阶数。具体地,方案一的分集阶数为1,另外2个中继选择方案的分集阶数均为中继节点个数M。数值结果验证了理论分析得到的结论。     

基于功率约束及节点频谱选择的认知协同路由

为了提升认知无线网络的数据传输效率,优化节点能量负载,提出一种协同路由算法。基于覆盖与底层技术的协作设计一种协同网络架构,该架构针对网络频带表现多样化提供了一种新的频谱选择策略,提升频谱资源效用。结合协同网络频谱选择时的干扰特性,根据频谱、干扰和功率约束关系,提出最大化链路容量的频谱及节点功率分配方法。在协同路由设计上引入了频谱效用参数,参数的度量标准涉及节点剩余能量和链路容量,以优化路由节点能量负载和传输效率为目的。仿真对比结果表明,算法有效地利用信道接入机会进行数据转发,提高了传输效率,相比基于竞争进化算法的多播路由方法,数据包传递成功率提升了1．4％,平均网络吞吐量高出8．4％,平均节点剩余能量高出3．2％,在均衡节点负载上性能良好。     

The performance of the income protection system for older adults in Ecuador and future challenges

The objective of this article is to analyse the performance of Ecuador’s pension system and the challenges it will face in the future. Over the last 13 years, the pension system has made significant advances in terms of coverage and adequacy. However, demographic ageing is straining the financial sustainability of the contributory scheme. In this context, a number of public policy areas are identified, in terms of parameters and structures, which, together with the expansion of non-contributory coverage, could provide a more equitable and sustainable scheme.     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

西部地区社会保障体系的模式设计与理论创新

西部地区的经济发展需要社会保障制度为其构筑一道“安全网”。回顾西部地区社会保障的发展历史,从社会保障中几个重要指标出发对西部地区社会保障制度作出绩效评估、分析其原因,并且提出西部地区建立覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系的基本框架、实现路径、步骤与措施。     

我国经济欠发达地区农村社会养老保险制度的构建

与发达地区相比,我国经济欠发达地区农村养老保险发展十分缓慢,覆盖面极其有限。实际上,经济欠发达地区的农民最需要社会养老保险,因为他们的基本生活需求没有保证,这些地区未富先老特征更为明显,传统的保障功能在弱化。然而,源于农民收入低,增长慢,支付保险费的能力弱;集体经济薄弱,无法为农民养老保险提供资金支持;地方财力单薄,难以全面提供以政府为主的养老基金融资;经济欠发达地区农民获得社会养老保险能力又最弱。为此,应将经济欠发达地区农村社会养老保险作为建设覆盖城乡居民社会保障体系的推进重点,变政府扶持为财政拨款,并向经济欠发达地区倾斜;大力进行宣传教育,让农民充分了解参加社会养老保险的必要性。     

中国基本医疗保险的实际参保率及其分布特征:基于多源数据的分析

全民覆盖是基本医疗保险降低国民医疗费用负担的前提条件。中国基本医疗保险是否实现了全民覆盖仍存在争议。本文利用多源调查数据,分析了我国基本医疗保险实际参保率及其分布特征。不同来源的数据基本证实,2015-2016年,中国仍有超过10%的国民没有参加任何一项基本医疗保险制度。其中,城镇居民、非农户口和没有户口的居民、东北地区、年轻人、儿童、未就业人群、低收入人群、在校学生以及流动人口基本医疗保险实际参保率更低。城乡居民实行自愿参保,因管理部门分割、信息系统不统一导致的重复参保以及因财政补贴制度导致的户籍地参保等制度设计,是导致基本医疗保险未能实现全民覆盖的根源。要实现基本医疗保险全民覆盖,解决国民医疗后顾之忧,未来我国基本医疗保险应实行强制参保、以家庭为单元参保、常住地参保,建立全国统一的基本医疗保险信息系统,并鼓励发展补充性医疗保障制度。