Consumption Over the Life Cycle

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components.     

A likelihood ratio test to discriminate exponential–Poisson and gamma distributions

The exponential–Poisson (EP) distribution with scale and shape parameters β>0 and λ∈?, respectively, is a lifetime distribution obtained by mixing exponential and zero-truncated Poisson models. The EP distribution has been a good alternative to the gamma distribution for modelling lifetime, reliability and time intervals of successive natural disasters. Both EP and gamma distributions have some similarities and properties in common, for example, their densities may be strictly decreasing or unimodal, and their hazard rate functions may be decreasing, increasing or constant depending on their shape parameters. On the other hand, the EP distribution has several interesting applications based on stochastic representations involving maximum and minimum of iid exponential variables (with random sample size) which make it of distinguishable scientific importance from the gamma distribution. Given the similarities and different scientific relevance between these models, one question of interest is how to discriminate them. With this in mind, we propose a likelihood ratio test based on Cox's statistic to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized logarithm of the ratio of the maximized likelihoods under two null hypotheses – data come from EP or gamma distributions – is provided. With this, we obtain the probabilities of correct selection. Hence, we propose to choose the model that maximizes the probability of correct selection (PCS). We also determinate the minimum sample size required to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions when the PCS and a given tolerance level based on some distance are before stated. A simulation study to evaluate the accuracy of the asymptotic probabilities of correct selection is also presented. The paper is motivated by two applications to real data sets.     

Testing dominance of biometric functions

The hazard rate (HR) and mean residual lifetime are two of the most practical and best-known functions in biometry, reliability, statistics and life testing. Recently, the reversed HR function is found to have interesting properties useful in additional areas such as censored data and forensic science. For these three biometric functions, we propose testing methods that they take on a known functional form against that they dominate or are dominated by this known form. This goodness-of-fit-type testing is wider in applications and more interesting than the long-standing testing procedures for exponentiality against the monotonicity of these functions or even the change point problems. This is so since we can test against any choice of the survival distribution and not just exponentiality. For this general testing, we present easy to implement tests and generalize them into classes of statistics that could lead to more powerful and efficient testing.     

易逝产品供应链利润分析

易逝产品的特殊性决定了它对顾客订单生产模式的需要,以及对供应链层面的市场竞争的依赖.利润模型分析表明,在由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的两级供应链中,供应商具有基于传统销售前的低成本生产模式和基于顾客订单生产的高成本生产模式.后者不但可以满足零售商的紧急订货,还能够通过供应商和零售商合作,通过制定合理的批发价格和回购价格,实现供应链利润的帕累托优化.     

企业生命周期不同阶段的员工感情承诺实证研究

文章以上海、南京和广东地区416家制造企业为样本,实证研究了企业生命周期不同阶段员工感情承诺的不同表现。研究结果表明,企业生命周期与员工感情承诺显著相关,企业快速发展阶段的感情承诺高于创业阶段和成熟阶段,衰退阶段员工感情承诺最低。企业国别因素对感情承诺没有显著影响,但是企业所有制对感情承诺影响较大。     

基于层次分析法和模糊理论的房地产企业顾客满意度评价

本文利用层次分析法（AHP）确定各因素权重,利用模糊综合评判理论对房地产企业顾客满意度进行了定量分析。结合邯郸市某房地产企业具体实例,建立了一套完善的顾客满意度评价体系,为房地产企业顾客满意度评价提供量化依据。     

中国C2C交易市场电子服务质量对顾客忠诚的影响——以顾客满意和顾客价值为中介变量

通过构建整合性的理论研究模型,揭示了C2C交易市场电子服务质量、顾客满意、顾客价值以及顾客忠诚之间相互作用的机理。并对中国具有C2C网上购物经验的用户进行问卷调查,建立结构方程模型,采用验证性因子分析法实证检验研究假设。研究结果发现：（1）C2C网站的电子服务质量对顾客满意和顾客价值产生显著的正向影响;（2）C2C卖家的电子服务质量对顾客满意产生显著的正向影响,对顾客价值的影响不显著;（3）顾客满意和顾客价值都对顾客忠诚产生显著的正向影响;（4）确认了顾客满意和顾客价值在C2C交易市场电子服务质量和顾客忠诚之间的中介效应。根据研究结论对C2C交易网站和网上卖家提高电子服务质量和顾客忠诚提出一些富有决策指导意义的对策和建议。     

银川市“农家乐”游客满意度调查与可持续发展研究

近年来,银川市以“农家乐”为代表的旅游休闲产业迅速发展,成为银川市经济的主要增长点。“农家乐”发展的同时,越来越多的问题也逐渐暴露,成为制约该产业可持续发展的主要因素。银川市“农家乐”旅游休闲产业的可持续发展有赖于开发与利用文化资源、提升产业整体服务水平和加强品牌建设。     

可持续建筑设计中的寿命周期评价方法

寿命周期概念及其评价体系作为可持续发展战略的重要组成部分,正在得到越来越广泛的应用。融入建筑设计决策过程的寿命周期评价方法是指具有规范化的设计步骤、定量化的优选方法的一种可持续建筑系统设计方法,较之传统节能设计更趋向于科学化、系统化。首先提出并分析了建筑设计中的寿命周期评价方法,然后总结了寿命周期评价工具的类型及应用,最后分析了寿命周期评价和寿命周期成本分析的结合应用。     

商店形象、顾客情绪与购物价值——理论模型及实证检验

以414名百货商店消费者为调查对象,通过结构方程模型对商店形象、顾客情绪与购物价值的关系机理进行了实证分析。结果表明,商店形象通过顾客情绪对购物价值产生积极的影响作用。其中,商店形象的六维度对愉悦情绪有积极影响,而对唤起情绪有积极影响的只有服务形象、氛围形象和促销形象,并且,顾客的唤起情绪积极影响愉悦情绪。同时,顾客的愉悦情绪对购物价值三维度均有积极影响,而唤起情绪仅对享乐性和社会性购物价值有积极影响。这些研究结论对零售企业具有管理启示作用。