Intraday Serial Correlation,Volatility, and Jump: Evidence from China's Stock Market

In this article, we investigate the relationships among intraday serial correlation, jump-robust volatility, positive and negative jumps based on Shanghai composite index high frequency data. We implement variance ratio test to quantify intraday serial correlation. We also measure the continuous part of realized volatility using jump-robust MedRV estimator and disentangle positive and negative jumps using Realized Downside Risk Measure and Realized Upside Potential Measure proposed by Bi et al., (2013 Bi, T., Zhang, B., Wu, H. (2013). Measuring downside risk using high frequency data–realized downside risk measure. Communications in Statistics–Simulation and Computation 42(4):741–754.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We find that intraday serial correlation are positively correlated with jump-robust volatility and negatively correlated with negative jumps which confirm the LeBaron effect.     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

On Hotelling’s T2 test in a special paired sample case

In a special paired sample case, Hotelling’s T² test based on the differences of the paired random vectors is the likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the paired random vectors have the same mean; with respect to a special group of affine linear transformations it is the uniformly most powerful invariant test for the general alternative of a difference in mean. We present an elementary straightforward proof of this result. The likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the covariance structure is of the assumed special form is derived and discussed. Applications to real data are given.     

Confidence intervals based on the deviance statistic for the hyperparameters in state space models

The main objective of this work is to evaluate the performance of confidence intervals, built using the deviance statistic, for the hyperparameters of state space models. The first procedure is a marginal approximation to confidence regions, based on the likelihood test, and the second one is based on the signed root deviance profile. Those methods are computationally efficient and are not affected by problems such as intervals with limits outside the parameter space, which can be the case when the focus is on the variances of the errors. The procedures are compared to the usual approaches existing in the literature, which includes the method based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator, as well as bootstrap confidence intervals. The comparison is performed via a Monte Carlo study, in order to establish empirically the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The results show that the methods based on the deviance statistic possess a better coverage rate than the asymptotic and bootstrap procedures.     

北京市现代制造业的产业组织结构分析

北京现代制造业的发展已有4年时间,对其发展状况和存在问题有必要从不同角度做出一个基本判断。本文主要从产业组织学的角度分析北京现代制造业产业组织结构的现状,探讨其存在的问题,并提出优化北京现代制造业产业组织的对策与建议。     

现代企业制度下银行运行机制的转换

银行运行机制的转换受到旧企业制度的制约，建立现代企业制度构成了银行运行机制转换的基本条件。重要的是把银行运行机制与现代企业制度结合起来，寻求转换银行运行机制的途径。它们包括：（１）重塑银企关系；（２）实行资产负债比率管理，（３）建立股份制商业银行；（４）发放抵押贷款和担保贷款；（５）向企业提供调控与服务。     

Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.     

Life satisfaction and family structure among adolescents in Hong Kong

Relationships between family structure and perceived life satisfaction in overall life and five domains of the Brief Multidimensional Students’ Life Satisfaction Scale, family life, friendships, school experience, myself, and where I live were examined among 4,502 Chinese adolescent secondary school students in Hong Kong. Bivariate analyses showed that economic status was not a significant risk factor, but gender, level of study, and migrant status had to be controlled to examine the life satisfaction-family structure relations. Logistic regression analyses found that in overall life, with adolescents living with two parents as standard for comparisons, adolescents living with mother had similar life satisfaction, but those living with father only, and those with no parents, or single parent with other adults had very much higher risk of life dissatisfaction. Specifically, the risks associated with the adverse family structures were most excessive in the domain of ‘family life’.     

出生人口性别比与和谐社会建设:一个定性和定量分析

20世纪80年代中期以来,中国的出生性别比持续攀升,出生人口性别结构严重失衡。运用定性和定量相结合的研究方法,探讨出生性别比失衡的潜在因素和制度因素。分析结果表明,农村地区出生性别比的失衡与儿子预期的经济价值和文化功用相关。最后提出具有针对性的缓解出生性别比失衡的建议。     

和谐社会构建中的不和谐人口因素探析——基于广东省出生性别比偏高问题的研究

人口性别比协调是一重要的社会"稳定器"和"平衡未",而出生性别比是人口性别比的先导.广东省在构建和谐社会进程中所面临的不和谐人口要素之一便是出生性别比偏高.通过从孩次、城乡、区域以及人口流迁等方面进行剖析,广东省出生人口性别比在上述几个方面均出现了不同程度的失衡.通过"利离"发现,广东省出生人口性别比的总体偏高主要还是由于粤北和粤西等不发达地区农村户籍育龄妇女的超高出生性别比拉动所致,主要应从现念、领导、管理和法制等面标本兼治、综合治理.