新媒体环境下大学生写作方式的改变及其影响

随着新媒体的发展与普及,大学生中形成了各种新的文化景观,最明显的是他们对文化的认知方式、思维模式和表达手段正发生着改变。以在大学生群体中的相关社会调查为依据,考察了新媒体环境下大学生写作方式的变化和影响,研究了大学生的新媒体写作与传统文学和写作教学的关系。文章认为,新媒体的发展虽然对大学生写作的媒介运用、内容表达、传播方式等方面带来了巨大变化和深刻影响,但大学生的写作也仍然受传统文学和写作形式的文化制约,大学的文学与写作教学需要顺应时代发展形势,将新媒体写作尽快纳入到教学体系之中去。     

智库影响力的国际比较与走向判断

现代智库已经成为各国决策者处理各种社会复杂问题所倚重的重要力量。中国与西方国家智库因为所处的体制环境不同,在独立属性上呈现出本土化运作的特征。通过对中西方智库的独立性的比较、分析和考察,以我国特有的国情为发展的起点,借鉴西方发达国家智库发展的成功经验,找到一条适合我国本土体制和国情的独立性的发展路径,是今后提高我国智库决策影响力的重要价值选择,也是促进我国决策科学化和民主化的重要动力。     

我国企业海外撤资的实物期权分析

由于世界经济形势变化、地区政局不稳和企业对国际市场的误判,我国部分对外投资企业亏损严重,面临着从海外撤资的决择。利用实物期权法分析企业退出问题,参照贝尔曼方程,构建撤资决策的实物期权模型,分析对外投资企业撤资决策的价值。算例分析表明,对外投资企业选择的贴现率、利润的波动率和撤资成本的变化均能影响撤资的时机和方式。我国对外投资企业应根据形势变化和自身实力,不断加强自身抵抗风险的能力,灵活选择趁机抢占国外市场的进攻策略,或尽早撤出以获得放弃期权价值的防守策略。     

Jackpot? Gender Differences in the Effects of Lottery Wins on Separation

In this study, information on small to modest lottery wins from the British Household Panel Survey (N = 2,563) was used to investigate the effect of income on separation. The analysis demonstrated that money matters within relationships. Lottery wins temporarily reduced the odds of separation after men won. Men spent more on leisure and became more satisfied with their leisure time and social lives after winning. Nevertheless, most of the effect of lottery wins on union stability was not mediated by changes in satisfaction; instead, a direct effect of wins on the threshold to leave relationships was observed. No effect on union stability was found when women won. Women did not spend their winnings on leisure time but instead saved or spent money on durable items. These types of spending did not increase satisfaction. The findings suggested that, within families, men acted relatively independently, whereas the behavior of women was more family oriented.     

Using agency data for evidence-based programming: a university-agency collaboration

Agencies providing residential treatment are encouraged, or even mandated, to collect outcomes data and to implement evidence based practices, yet little guidance has been provided on how to do so using agency administrative data that are collected on an ongoing basis. We examined data on Child and Adolescent Functional Assessment Scale (CAFAS) scores for 1608 admissions to a residential treatment center from 2002 through 2008. CAFAS scores were measured every 90 days, providing multiple CAFAS scores for each individual. Results demonstrated that on average residents improved in functioning over time. Sensitive to the evolving needs of residents who had been entering the program, the treatment center made significant program changes in 2006 to attempt to better serve residents through a broad array of specialized programming. Compared to the overall results, the analysis suggested that residents who entered the program since October 2006 appeared to have made larger improvements in their CAFAS scores. Results were derived by employing multilevel models appropriate for estimating growth trajectories with repeated measures data. Conversations with agency staff suggested that using administrative data, and advanced statistical models, were extremely helpful for organizational decision making and evidence-based programming.     

Children and Families’ Involvement in Social Work Decision Making

This review summarises the research literature on children’s and parents’ involvement in social work decision making, which is regarded, in policy terms, as increasingly important. In practice, however, it tends to be messy, difficult and compromised. Different individuals or groups may have different understandings of participation and related concepts, while differences of age and disability also mediate effective user engagement. The literature highlights common themes in effective participatory practice with both children and their parents. Central to this are the establishment of relationships of trust and respect, clear communication and information and appropriate support to participate.     

哪些创业失败者更可能卷土重来?———基于松 － 紧文化与制度环境的跨国比较研究

高失败率是创业热潮中创业者必须面对的基本事实.创业失败在为创业者带来大量情绪与财务成本的同时,也提供了独特的学习经验.如何激活创业失败者卷土重来的激情是降低创业社会成本的关键.文章整合组织学习和创业认知理论构建了统一的创业失败学习理论逻辑,结合全球创业观察(Global Entrepreneurship Monitor)、世界银行和松-紧文化3个跨国数据库,考察了不同国家文化与制度环境下不同性别个体的创业失败经历对其创业选择的影响.研究发现:与没有失败经历的个体相比,有创业失败经历的个体更可能选择创业;高宽松度的国家文化、好的制度环境分别强化了这一关系;性别与文化宽松度对这一关系有显著的三重调节效应.即在高宽松度的国家文化下,有创业失败经历的女性创业者再次创业的概率更高.将性别角色差异纳入到创业失败的分析框架中,同时也扩展了创业失败的文化与制度分析.     

微信公众号影响力指数建构与量化评估

作为被广泛使用的社交媒体,微信已经成为热点事件和网络舆情的重要策源地,科学准确评估微信公众号的影响力对于明晰微信信息传播特点,深入挖掘微信传播潜力,进一步规范和指导微信平台的传播行为具有较大的理论和实践意义。在对既有关于微信公众号影响力研究进行梳理和评价的基础上,基于传播效果测量的设计,坚持以受众为中心、由浅入深多层次考察准则,运用德尔菲法和层次分析法建构一套微信公众号影响力指标体系。该指标体系由4个一级指标和9个二级指标构成,并运用线性合成法合成微信公众号影响力指数。     

基于ART及多风险规避的交通网络均衡模型

随着对交通系统不确定性认识的深入,以绝对理性为基础的“期望效用理论”在风险环境下的路径选择分析中显示出局限性,而“预期后悔理论”则为之提供了新的分析思路.将预期后悔理论应用到风险环境下的路径选择分析中,将出行者一致风险规避的假设扩展到多风险规避,建立了基于后悔理论及多风险规避出行特征的交通网络随机用户均衡变分不等式模型,并给出了求解算法.通过算例分析发现,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择并不总是显著的.在非风险环境及极端风险环境中,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择影响是微弱的,但是当环境处于极端风险与非风险之间时,后悔心理对出行者路径选择有着较为显著的影响.     

中国农村老年人生活满意度研究

基于2013年"中国健康与养老追踪调查"(CHARLS)数据,对中国农村老年人生活满意度的影响因素进行分析,重点关注新农保和新农合对生活满意度的影响。研究发现,性别、婚姻状况、是否有医疗保险、是否有亲人(除了配偶以外)或朋友能长期照顾对农村老年人生活满意度有显著影响。年龄和社交活动对农村老年人生活满意度的影响部分显著。根据研究结论,建议老龄问题立法层面应考虑性别差异,适度提升基础养老金水平,进一步发挥新农合的医疗保障作用并加强农村社区居家养老模式的建设。