我国居民家庭生命周期消费储蓄行为动态模拟研究

本文建立了家庭生命周期消费储蓄优化模拟模型,并利用该模型对我国居民家庭生命周期阶段各类家庭的消费储蓄行为进行了模拟研究,比较分析了家庭生育决策、教育决策和收入转移决策变化对家庭消费储蓄行为的影响以及利率变动和信贷约束的影响。模拟结果显示,信贷约束对家庭消费路径有着重要影响,约束了家庭在新生阶段和中间阶段的消费水平;教育费用的提高和教育投资实现的不确定性风险提高了家庭的教育储蓄水平;生育数的降低、教育投资机会的短缺和代际关系的松散化趋势提高了家庭的养老储蓄水平。利率的提高使生命周期前期的家庭消费下降,使生命周期后期的家庭消费提高。提高利率政策的消费传导效应,可以通过提高受教育程度和增加消费信贷来实现。     

“关系人”受贿的共犯认定——兼议《刑法修正案(七)》第十三条

随着<刑法修正案(七)>的正式通过,"关系人"受贿问题再次成为讨论的热点.相比以前的规定,"关系人"的范围进一步扩大,并确定了关系人可以单独构成利用影响力受贿罪.关系人作为受贿罪的共犯有一定的理论基础,而对共犯构成要件的分析,也为共犯的认定提供了便利.结合修正案的规定分析关系人参与受贿的诸多情形,可以看出对"关系人"受贿的共犯认定仍然比较复杂并存在一些争议,还有待于理论和实践中进一步完善.     

目的地少数民族居民旅游感知与态度研究——以青海互助北山浪士当村为例

近年国内关于旅游影响的研究日渐增多,许多学者针对不同类型旅游地做了大量的实证研究,但关于旅游对少数民族居民影响方面的研究却相对较少。以互助北山浪士当村为例,通过问卷调查和访谈相结合的方法。分析目的地少数民族居民对旅游影响的感知与态度,结果表明,旅游对当地少数民族传统建筑样式有很大影响,对民族语言、民族服饰等影响并不十分显著。     

试论市场经营的辩证法

本文阐述了作为人类社会活动一种方式的市场经营活动必须遵循的唯物辩证法的基本规律。提出并论证了市场经营的管理、决策、生产、销售等环节必须以科学的辩证法作指导,才能在激烈的市场竞争中立足取胜。     

对我国电子商务税收问题的探讨

电子商务是一种全新的商务模式,有着与传统商务模式不同的技术和收入特征。文章针对电子商务对现行税收政策、税收制度、税收征管的影响,结合西方国家目前制定的电子商务课税政策,探讨了我国制定电子商务税收政策的原则,最后对我国电子商务税收政策的制定提出了一些建议。     

Bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model: estimation and diagnostic analysis

In this paper, we discuss the bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model, in which we have modeled the dependence structure of bivariate survival data through the use of frailty models. Specifically, we propose the bivariate model Birnbaum-Saunders with the following frailty distributions: gamma, positive stable and logarithmic series. We present a study of inference and diagnostic analysis for the proposed model, more concisely, are proposed a diagnostic analysis based in local influence and residual analysis to assess the fit model, as well as, to detect influential observations. In this regard, we derived the normal curvatures of local influence under different perturbation schemes and we performed some simulation studies for assessing the potential of residuals to detect misspecification in the systematic component, the presence in the stochastic component of the model and to detect outliers. Finally, we apply the methodology studied to real data set from recurrence in times of infections of 38 kidney patients using a portable dialysis machine, we analyzed these data considering independence within the pairs and using the bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model, so that we could make a comparison and verify the importance of modeling dependence within the times of infection associated with the same patient.     

歧义容忍度对外语语言水平和外语阅读成绩的影响

为探讨歧义容忍度对外语语言水平和外语阅读成绩的影响,对高、低歧义容忍度组在外语语言水平和外语阅读成绩上的差异进行了比较。结果表明：歧义容忍度直接影响外语语言水平和外语阅读成绩,还通过外语语言水平间接影响外语阅读成绩;高、低歧义容忍度纽的学生在外语语言水平和外语阅读成绩上均有显著性差异。     

Considerations on jury size and composition using lower probabilities

The use of lower probabilities is considered for inferences in basic jury scenarios to study aspects of the size of juries and their composition if society consists of subpopulations. The use of lower probability seems natural in law, as it leads to robust inference in the sense of providing a defendant with the benefit of the doubt. The method presented in this paper focusses on how representative a jury is for the whole population, using a novel concept of a second ’imaginary’ jury together with exchangeability assumptions. It has the advantage that there is an explicit absence of any assumption with regard to guilt of a defendant. Although the concept of a jury in law is central in the presentation, the novel approach and the conclusions of this paper hold for representative decision making processes in many fields, and it also provides a new perspective to stratified sampling.     

Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas

Modeling the dependence between uncertainties in decision and risk analyses is an important part of the problem structuring process. We focus on situations where correlated uncertainties are discrete, and extend the concept of the copula‐based approach for modeling correlated continuous uncertainties to the representation of correlated discrete uncertainties. This approach reduces the required number of probability assessments significantly compared to approaches requiring direct estimates of conditional probabilities. It also allows the use of multiple dependence measures, including product moment correlation, rank order correlation and tail dependence, and parametric families of copulas such as normal copulas, t‐copulas, and Archimedean copulas. This approach can be extended to model the dependence between discrete and continuous uncertainties in the same event tree.     

Efficient Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with type-I-censored samples

The aim of this paper is to introduce an efficient Bayesian sampling procedure for exponential distribution with type-I censoring. An online inspection method is suggested to reach a Bayes decision prior the termination time of life test. Bayesian sampling plans (BSPs) with quadratic loss function are established to illustrate the use of the proposed method. Some BSPs are tabulated, and the performance of the proposed BSPs is compared with two existing competitive methods. Numerical results indicate that a significant reduction in the experimental time over the conventional BSP can be achieved when the online inspection method is applied.